Israel attacks Gaza Strip

Jeff Head said:

Perhaps plans have been laid to await just such a provocation and let Israel draw Iran into a fly trap...where if they react overtly, their military infrastructure, and particularly their nuclear program can be laid waste by the US and Israel with good cause, without the trouble of waiting on the UN to agree on something substantive.

Just a thought.

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I doubt that. This seems to be a replay of the Cold War where nations fight each other in another country. Instead of directly confronting Israel, both Syria and Iran have decided to take it to Lebanon. Right now Syria and Iran (well, mostly Iran) can decide when and where to take the fight and when to stop it.

An attack against Iran (especially their nuke sites) will have horrible consequences. The Iranians will completely destabilize Iraq, hit Israel with all sorts of missiles (and even target their nuclear power plant according to some), and close the Persian Gulf by anti-ship missiles and mines. It will become a war that starts at Gaza, goes through Lebanon, and ends in Iraq and Afghanistan.

crazyinsane105 said:

An attack against Iran (especially their nuke sites) will have horrible consequences. The Iranians will completely destabilize Iraq, hit Israel with all sorts of missiles (and even target their nuclear power plant according to some), and close the Persian Gulf by anti-ship missiles and mines. It will become a war that starts at Gaza, goes through Lebanon, and ends in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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I do not believe having strong American forces on either side of Iran is an accident...and I do not believe having strong American forces on one side, and the IDF on the other side of Syria is an accident.

My point is simply this...I do not believe the American administration is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. If Iran attacks Israel or becomes overtly involved in the current crisis, I believe that opportunity will be taken as as a means, without the haggling and stonewalling in the UN, to take down the Iranian nuclear program and their military (and that of Syria should it also become involved).

That is all...and it is nothing more than an opinion.

Jeff Head said:

My point is simply this...I do not believe the American administration is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. If Iran attacks Israel or becomes overtly involved in the current crisis, I believe that opportunity will be taken as as a means, without the haggling and stonewalling in the UN, to take down the Iranian nuclear program and their military (and that of Syria should it also become involved).

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But that depends if the Iranians and Syrians get involved in this conflict....right now Israel has refrained from starting a campaign against Syria. But we'll see how long that lasts.

crazyinsane105 said:

But that depends if the Iranians and Syrians get involved in this conflict....

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Agreed. That would be the key and the entire point of my premise. If Iran and/or Syria take no overt action against the IDF or Israel, then the end result will simply be the dismantling, at whatever cast to the IDF, of Hezbullah.

My guess is, that as it becomes more and more apparent that Israel has a chance of achieving that goal, particularly Iran will have a hard time staying out of it...particularly if very many of their Revoultionary Guard are also in Lebannon in any proximity to the fighting.

...and, that leads to my other point...giving them a chance to be drawn in may be a secondary goal of the operation.

Jeff, as to your theory, I don't think that Iran or especially Syria want to be involved in this conflictg any more than they already are. That said, any impetus to involve Iran and/or Syria more would have to come from Israel, probably in the form of strikes on Syria while the Israeli government claims that they are necessary to fully destroy Hezbollah. That would probably be how Iran and/or Syria gets involved in this conflict overtly. As Crazy pointed out, that would have massive consequences. I doubt Israel fails to realize this or is foolish enough to believe that a cataclysmic war in the Middle East would be a good thing, so I don't think that they will start it.

At one point, American strategists may have had the dream of wiping out the Tailban, Iraq, Iran and Syria-essentially all of the nations hostile to America in the Middle East-and replacing their governments with American-friendly ones. But I think that dream died in the Iraqi Insurgency. This latest war in Lebanon is just the latest in the series of wars between Israel and her neighbors. Of course, Iran is making the whole situation more complicated and dangerous by using anti-Israeli liberation/terrorist groups to its advantage, just as most Arab powers have for their own reasons.

Finn McCool said:

Jeff, as to your theory, I don't think that Iran or especially Syria want to be involved in this conflictg any more than they already are.

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I do not believe the leader of Iran is all that rational, so it is difficult to ascertain what he/they want. However, I believe if Hezbullah is going down hard, and the Revolutionary Guard gets into the fight in any major way, you may well see Iran particularly up the ante.

Finn McCool said:

But I think that dream died in the Iraqi Insurgency.

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I disagree. The facts indicate that the vast majority of the Iranian people are embracing their new government and freedoms. Despite the insurgrncy and their terrorist acts, they have voted several times under threat of death, they have formed their government, and they are fighting the insurgency themselves, losing far more people than the American troops stationed there.

I have many friends on the ground...some contrcting, others in the military. Their direct correspondences to me indicate that the fight in Iraq and Afghanistan is anything but a loss of any sort. A few insurgents, hold-over Ba'athists, etc. But they are the ones losing because the vast majority of Iraqis are becoming involved themselves and want their new government to be successful.

Anyhow, that's just my own opinion based on the direct communications I have with people there on the ground.

How this all plays out in Gaza and Lebannon is yet to be seen.

Let's not get this thread started about Iraq please. Let's just focus on Lebanon and Gaza.

crazyinsane105 said:

Let's not get this thread started about Iraq please. Let's just focus on Lebanon and Gaza.

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Amen and WILCO.

I don't know if anyone is keeping tolls on the size of the current force in Lebanon now, but fron Yahoo! News:

"In all, a total of about 2,000 Israeli troops entered the area Saturday, but some returned to Israel during the day. No Israeli or Hezbollah casualties were immediately reported." -http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060722/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel_334

As well, I doubt if this is true, but from my local news they have said that Israel has begun an invasion, but once again I say that I doubt this is true.

Yeah, the Israelis have captured a village from Hezbullah. I don't think there were any casualties on either side, but that can change.