ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Janiz

Senior Member
together with the fact that "Turkey initially anounaced that the downed airplane is Russians", we see Russian is pushing forward while Turkey is back-stepping.

I see that the Russian retaliation (besides economical sanction) is beating up the Turkish claimed "brothers" right in front of Turkish door step and in front of the whole world, that is the biggest humiliation.
There's no humiliation. Turkey isn't Ukraine and is major military power which grows stronger every year. Nothing that Russians could take lightly (aside from nuking the entire area).

Syria will be divided for now with Turkey ending their bombardments of ISIS and Kurds (as it's now dangerous for them) and Russia laying off the area near Turkish border (where it's dangerous for them). The end. There won't be another war and Russians won't beat Turks (as many here would like to see I assume from posts, as if they could - they can't).
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Iraqi troops gunning for Ramadi outnumber ISIS 10 to 1

Iraqi troops closing in on Ramadi outnumber Islamic State militants by as many as 10 to one, a U.S. official told Military Times on Friday.

The offensive to wrest back control of the city involves between 8,000 and 10,000 Iraqi security forces, said Army Col. Steve Warren, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition overseeing the fight against the Islamic State group.

No American military personnel are on the ground fighting alongside them, he said.
Three U.S.-trained Iraqi brigades are participating in the operation, Warren said. They face between 600 and 1,000 well-entrenched Islamic State fighters.

American and coalition warplanes have conducted airstrikes in and around Ramadi since the summer, aiming to weaken the militants' grip ahead of the highly anticipated ground operation that began Wednesday.
"We believe the Iraqis will finish soon," Warren said, adding that Iraq's government has a "detailed plan to use tribal fighters, federal police and local police for stabilization" once the city is cleared

Ramadi, the capital of Iraq's Anbar province, fell in mid-May when thinly supported Iraqi soldiers abandoned their posts ahead of the Islamic State group's advance. Iraq's government said in July it was developing plans to retake the city.

News of the city's fall angered American veterans who fought in Ramadi during the U.S. military's eight-year occupation of Iraq. More than 70 U.S. troops died as a result of the fighting there during a 2006 campaign to oust insurgents.

On Wednesday, Iraqi soldiers took control of the Palestine bridge northwest of the city, shutting off a key supply route crossing the Euphrates River. As they advanced, American and coalition aircraft took out IS snipers and a variety of homemade bombs and heavy weapons.

The air assault continued Thursday with a mix of bombers, fighters, ground-attack jets and drones, U.S. officials said. They hit IS command posts and staging areas, destroying buildings, boats and roads in an apparent effort to further eliminate supply lines and cut off escape routes.

About 3,500 U.S. troops are in Iraq, mainly soldiers and Marines tasked with training and advising the Iraqi army. The White House has approved U.S. special operations forces to participate in select surgical missions targeting IS fighters in Iraq and Syria, but President Obama has resisted calls to deploy large numbers of American ground troops.

Last month,
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became the first U.S. service member killed by enemy fire while fighting the Islamic State group. He was among several dozen American commandos who helped Kurdish peshmerga fighters conduct a successful hostage rescue at an IS prison in Kirkuk province.

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delft

Brigadier
There's no humiliation. Turkey isn't Ukraine and is major military power which grows stronger every year. Nothing that Russians could take lightly (aside from nuking the entire area).

Syria will be divided for now with Turkey ending their bombardments of ISIS and Kurds (as it's now dangerous for them) and Russia laying off the area near Turkish border (where it's dangerous for them). The end. There won't be another war and Russians won't beat Turks (as many here would like to see I assume from posts, as if they could - they can't).
Syria can with the help of Russia and the Kurds cut the connection between Turkey and Daesh, if not on the border then some kilometres away. Syria can declare a no-fly zone along the border. Any Turkish planes hit while attacking the blockade will fall in Syria. Any terrorists North of the line can be found by UAV and attacked by artillery.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
There's no humiliation.
humiliation or not is a perception by all parties, Turkey, Russian and other countries, not only defined by Turkey or anyone. Reputation of a country is closely related to this perception. Turkish view is only meaningful demesticly, not necessarily shared by outsiders.
Syria will be divided for now with Turkey ending their bombardments of ISIS and Kurds (as it's now dangerous for them) and Russia laying off the area near Turkish border (where it's dangerous for them). The end.
That remains to be seen. At this moment Iraq, a very similar country, is still one country with Kurdish atonomous region.
BTW, Turkey has a similar ethnic composition like Syria.
There won't be another war and Russians won't beat Turks (as many here would like to see I assume from posts, as if they could - they can't).
No, I don't see another war between Russia and Turkey. None of them are that crazy.
I think you did not read my post carefully. I repost it below
"beating up the Turkish claimed "brothers" right in front of Turkish door step"
I did NOT say Russia beats Turkey, not at all. I said the brothers (Syrian "Turkmen" rebels openly supported by Erdogan, still Syrians). door step means outside of Turkey, inside Syria.
This is excatly what Russia is doing right now, the airstrike of the "humanitarian" convoy, remember?
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Syria can with the help of Russia and the Kurds cut the connection between Turkey and Daesh, if not on the border then some kilometres away. Syria can declare a no-fly zone along the border. Any Turkish planes hit while attacking the blockade will fall in Syria. Any terrorists North of the line can be found by UAV and attacked by artillery.
The deployment of S-400 is excatly for that purpose.

I believe the objective would be to push the rebels from south towards Turkish boarder AFTER Alepo is secured. The airstrikes may be conducted a bit away from the boarder so not to distract the main objective. When the front reaches the boarder, heavy artillary will be used to finish off the remaining rebels.

There is one thing that remains a question to me. How would Syria and Russia stop the inflow of fighers from Turkey without getting close to the boarder? There are two alternatives.
1. Russia continues airstrike as today. The risk of future conflict with Turkey is largely dependent on how the current incident plays out. But as Turkey just made a first shot (to Russia), blaming Russia returning the favor is difficult.
2. Russia restraint on getting close to the boarder as you said. Using armed drones could be an option, though not a very efficient one as it lacks the punching force.
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
together with the fact that "Turkey initially anounaced that the downed airplane is Russians", we see Russian is pushing forward while Turkey is back-stepping.

My advice to Erdogan is that, apologize to the Russians and fire a scapegoat in his airforce before it is too late.

Another advice to him and any Turkish politicians is this, don't punch over your weight class, don't do anything if you are not ready to walk to that end.

I see that the Russian retaliation (besides economical sanction) is beating up the Turkish claimed "brothers" right in front of Turkish door step and in front of the whole world, that is the biggest humiliation.

Only because NATO is exerting a huge pressure on Turkey and it's leadership to take a backward step and diffuse the situation which is the correct thing to do

What does Russia think this is, Ukraine, the Crimea or Georigoa? No it's Turkey and if you crossed despite warning you only have yourself to blame

And this was not the first time, there have been 4 incursions by Russia into Turkish air space in recent months and they have been told clearly to stop

Turkey followed international of engagement, in less than 17 seconds they down the fighter just goes to show the calibre of Turkish pilots

Two powers don't go to war, they sit down they talk they work it out and Turkey and Russia will do the same unless Russia try's to be really childish and cries fowl

Erdogan and Putin have talked on the phone the summit is not cancelled and neither one has refused to meet each other plus $45 billion in trade is at stake no one will cancel

Turk is as bold country and Russia respect it's sovereignty
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Only because NATO is exerting a huge pressure on Turkey and it's leadership to take a backward step and diffuse the situation which is the correct thing to do

What does Russia think this is, Ukraine, the Crimea or Georigoa? No it's Turkey and if you crossed despite warning you only have yourself to blame

And this was not the first time, there have been 4 incursions by Russia into Turkish air space in recent months and they have been told clearly to stop

Turkey followed international of engagement, in less than 17 seconds they down the fighter just goes to show the calibre of Turkish pilots

Two powers don't go to war, they sit down they talk they work it out and Turkey and Russia will do the same unless Russia try's to be really childish and cries fowl

Erdogan and Putin have talked on the phone the summit is not cancelled and neither one has refused to meet each other plus $45 billion in trade is at stake no one will cancel

Turk is as bold country and Russia respect it's sovereignty
hmm, I have said I will not continue our conversation as you instinctly take the Turkish side/version. Now I will learn one thing from Erdogan, (shame on me) to answer your post.

Your replies focused on (as you have been repeating) the 4 incursions by Russia.

Now answer this, Turkey openly demands removal of another country's ligitimat head of state (so far as UN is concerned) and openly arms another country's rebel for the past five years. How would you consider that "incursion"? How would you compare 4 times over 1 month with 5 years? That is simple mathematics, is it not? BTW, the last time I checked the UN charter, the Turkish incursion is actually called invation of a sovereign state which is war crime.

Now it is probably OT and my last point specifically to you as a Pakistani.
I know something about Pakistan and her people from my own contacts and my father who had personal relations with the Pakistani army, not in millitary capacity but close enough to know the general view and attitude of them. I also studied Pakistan's historical relationship with Turkey, I know there is a strong feeling among many Pakistanis. But I must ask you, if you see Turkey as a brother nation for religous reason (I hope not), you should also think about Syrian as brothers. If you support Turkey for stratigic insterest for Pakistan, I don't see how Turkey's confrontation with Russia serves Pakistan's interest. Considerring Pakistan's reapproachment to Russia and her new membership in SCO, I see Pakistan's focus should (just advice, not demand) be to facilitate a peaceful Afgahanistan at her doorstep, that needs a good relationship with Russia and all other SCO members who are all supportive to Russia in Syrian case abeit not openly. I believe that (closer to Russia) is exactly what the Pakistani government is doing, you may distaste the current Pakistani administration for that (as some Pakistanis told me), but they are doing the right thing in this case at least.
 

Janiz

Senior Member
Now answer this, Turkey openly demands removal of another country's ligitimat head of state (so far as UN is concerned) and openly arms another country's rebel for the past five years. How would you consider that "incursion"? How would you compare 4 times over 1 month with 5 years? That is simple mathematics, is it not? BTW, the last time I checked the UN charter, the Turkish incursion is actually called invation of a sovereign state which is war crime.
Now Turkey can meddle into Russia's border conflicts. Just imagine Turkey helping Georgia in 2008 with their anti-aircraft supplies. How many Su-24's would be downed there? I would count them in tens instead of a single one. And Russia opened this gate. Ukraine, Georgia - those are countries that NATO favors. Russia came to an end it seems when it comes to European disputes. Name one European country outside of Armenia/Belarusssia/Balkans that like Russia. And that's work of the past 10 years. And Europe isn't polarized like it was 15 years ago with strong East and weak Central. Central European countries are gaining power year by year (which favors China for example as they like to downplay Russia on their maps) and are increasingly raising their voice when something comes across their meaning of 'Europe'. And they have the power to unite above Eastern European countries like France or Germany. The world keeps changing and it's not that easy to get a full picture of how it will soon look like.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now Turkey can meddle into Russia's border conflicts. Just imagine Turkey helping Georgia in 2008 with their anti-aircraft supplies. How many Su-24's would be downed there? I would count them in tens instead of a single one. And Russia opened this gate. Ukraine, Georgia - those are countries that NATO favors. Russia came to an end it seems when it comes to European disputes. Name one European country outside of Armenia/Belarusssia/Balkans that like Russia. And that's work of the past 10 years. And Europe isn't polarized like it was 15 years ago with strong East and weak Central. Central European countries are gaining power year by year (which favors China for example as they like to downplay Russia on their maps) and are increasingly raising their voice when something comes across their meaning of 'Europe'. And they have the power to unite above Eastern European countries like France or Germany. The world keeps changing and it's not that easy to get a full picture of how it will soon look like.

and you know very well where these meddling will lead to? Just look a little back into the history. For a big country, a failed meddling means lost of prestige or territory, a disaster. For a small country, it may mean extiction (not literarily). That's what I ment in a previous post, "don't punch above one's weight class".

I agree with your other analysis about changing of the map. But I don't see what is the relationship between "Central European countries favors China" and Russia. As far as China's concern, Russia is the de facto "ally" (not carved in stone) in the forseable future for common survival. China want a good relationship with both Europe and Russia, but EU is neighter willing nor able to be on the Chinese side in a possible confrontation in Asia-Pacific region, some Eastern and Central European countries may have a more favorable (nuatral) position towards China, but are in no way to be physically helpful to China when shit hit the fan, but Russia can and probably will IF China is supportitive today. Of course, China will want some issurance, for example by taking up market shares left by EU and now Turkey etc.

Your last sentence is absolutely right, things change, and I must emphasize that more importatly the change can be in any directions, not only favors and fits one's wish, but also the opposite.
 
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