ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

plawolf

Lieutenant General
turkish letter to the UN
I7OFpQB.jpg


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Well the Turkish position is far worse than I first thought. Rather than 1 Su24 making 2 passes, it was 2 Su24s making a single pass.

So Turkey have just admitted their 10 warnings in 5 minutes story is total BS. They were issuing warnings when the Russian Su24s were firmly in Syrian airspace and opened fire pretty much the second they crossed into Turkish airspace.

That's not a reason, its a pretext.
 

cn_habs

Junior Member
Now we know there was a 2nd Su-24 which most likely returned safely to base, meaning Putin knows what exactly happened.

The plot thickens...
 

Janiz

Senior Member
If you cannot understand a simple graph, not much I want do about it. I would suggest you go back and look at that graphic real hard and then re-read what I wrote and figure it out.
I'm glad they released it.
Well the Turkish position is far worse than I first thought. Rather than 1 Su24 making 2 passes, it was 2 Su24s making a single pass.

So Turkey have just admitted their 10 warnings in 5 minutes story is total BS. They were issuing warnings when the Russian Su24s were firmly in Syrian airspace and opened fire pretty much the second they crossed into Turkish airspace.
They just confirmed what was released earlier with that map. Optimal case would be scrambling by the Turkish F-16 but there was no place to do it right and I bet Russians knew about that and that's why they chose this path (maybe for convinience of not bothering themselves with Turks too much). But Turks chose the hard line this time instead of writing another worthless note.

And lol about that part of issuing warnings after something happened and not like it's done the right way before! And they did it rightly as Russians ignored them and entered Turkish air space!
 
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aksha

Captain
i got this update from the telegraph
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Turkey: We believe pilots are alive
Turkey believes the two pilots are still alive and is working to secure their release from Syrian rebels, a Turkish government official told Reuters news agency.

"Our units, who received the information that the two pilots were alive, are working to get them from opposition rebels safely," the official said.

crazy,
when we have seen at least one dead body
 

Janiz

Senior Member
Turkey was more pissed at Russia for destroying oil transports they were buying up from ISIS (yes, those money sponsored them) than anything else lately. It's more or less - 'you burned our money? we'll burn your!' message from Turkey. And Russians fell for it unfortunately giving a good reason to burn 'Russian money' (aircraft and late pilots).
 

Skye_ZTZ_113

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let's not succumb to jubilations or write Turkey off just yet. Trying to be the voice of reason and calm here. Putin plays geopolitics without emotion, if his prior history is to be looked at. Imo that 'Turkish airspace' that stretches into Syria is going to be the first thing to go and then the Russians will be expected to do a retaliatory strike perhaps. I think that the retaliatory strikes would be a mistake, even if NATO does not get involved. This smacks of desperation by Turkey, and as I mentioned previously in this thread-they should have been called out on it by China/Russia etc much earlier. Dragging the Russians into a ground/air war 5000+ km from home, with hugely overstretched supply lines might just be the kind of crazy tactic Erdogan and his politicians/generals might be after.

No, I think that Turkey will pay the price for their actions alright but it will not be in fire but in ice, ala the winter Russian bear. The Europeans already are very apprehensive of the Turkish and this could weaken NATO in the long run, isolating Turkey even more. The Turkish Kurds can be expected to 'suddenly' gain a large amount of support. And of course there is the Chinese factor and economic development/trade that goes with it. Perhaps an alternate route for the Silk Road up through south western Russia, that bypasses the currently listed Turkish land route? Hmm....
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
I'm afraid Putin's options regarding Turkey are much more limited . Sure, he could arm Kurds and try to impose some kind of economic sanctions but this would not hurt Turks that much, especially not visibly and in short term . On the other hand, he is well aware that Turkey (directly or indirectly) supports jihadis, even ISIS. Therefore, he could not win his little war in Syria without stopping them. Otherwise, it would be Afghanistan all over again, with Turks playing the role of Pakistan in that conflict .
For Putin, much relies on his image of tough macho man, and he would do everything to keep that. Otherwise, he risks losing prestige abroad and loosing power at home. Therefore, direct military option against Turkey is becoming only acceptable solution to him . And this military option in itself is very narrow. He cannot engage in limited ground war or undeclared aerial war of attrition, because Russia simply doesn't have enough strength for such endeavor .
Therefore, I'm afraid only one thing remain - in next few days on diplomatic front Russia would try to portray Turkey as terrorist harbor . Most likely they would succeed, because Turkey really does that - there is plenty of evidence of them arming various "moderate" rebel groups, even openly cooperating with ISIS . After that, Putin will have justification for one thing remaining - massive strikes with ballistic and cruise missiles against Turkish infrastructure (especially airfields and C&C centers) including use of tactical nuclear weapons . We all know what this means, Turkey being member of NATO alliance and such .

As it stands, world is on precipice. Fate of human species lays in rather weak hands of US President Barack Obama . He alone could mediate between Russia and Turkey, and he alone could put enough pressure on both sides - on Russia not to strike, and on Turkey to stop supporting islamists . I would pray for him, and suggest you do the same, no matter do you like him or not. I hope God would grant him the wisdom to avoid worst .
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
I'm afraid Putin's options regarding Turkey are much more limited . Sure, he could arm Kurds and try to impose some kind of economic sanctions but this would not hurt Turks that much, especially not visibly and in short term . On the other hand, he is well aware that Turkey (directly or indirectly) supports jihadis, even ISIS. Therefore, he could not win his little war in Syria without stopping them. Otherwise, it would be Afghanistan all over again, with Turks playing the role of Pakistan in that conflict .
For Putin, much relies on his image of tough macho man, and he would do everything to keep that. Otherwise, he risks losing prestige abroad and loosing power at home. Therefore, direct military option against Turkey is becoming only acceptable solution to him . And this military option in itself is very narrow. He cannot engage in limited ground war or undeclared aerial war of attrition, because Russia simply doesn't have enough strength for such endeavor .
Therefore, I'm afraid only one thing remain - in next few days on diplomatic front Russia would try to portray Turkey as terrorist harbor . Most likely they would succeed, because Turkey really does that - there is plenty of evidence of them arming various "moderate" rebel groups, even openly cooperating with ISIS . After that, Putin will have justification for one thing remaining - massive strikes with ballistic and cruise missiles against Turkish infrastructure (especially airfields and C&C centers) including use of tactical nuclear weapons . We all know what this means, Turkey being member of NATO alliance and such .

As it stands, world is on precipice. Fate of human species lays in rather weak hands of US President Barack Obama . He alone could mediate between Russia and Turkey, and he alone could put enough pressure on both sides - on Russia not to strike, and on Turkey to stop supporting islamists . I would pray for him, and suggest you do the same, no matter do you like him or not. I hope God would grant him the wisdom to avoid worst .

Chief your last paragraph is one of your finest, and I concur completely, we all need to pray for wisdom and a spirit of forgiveness and reconciliation for Obama, Putin, and Erdogan, and Assad, and all our peoples.
 
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