Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

Biscuits said:

The same Taiwanese “government” that experiences the world’s largest brain and money drain to mainland China? And is wholly economically dependent on the latter?

Taiwan doesn’t have a government (unless you live in Nauru), they have a group of people who try to balance keeping resistance alive against Beijing, pointing missiles at Fujian to deter Xinjiang style response, and playing nice economically so Beijing will still funnel them stuff despite the threats. It’s like with Hamas, except even Hamas have more countries recognizing their authority.

US is just one power piece in that balancing game. The goal of the game is to stay in power.

Entering the spat now will be throwing the game. The companies from Taiwan are about as well integrated as companies from any other province.

The moment Taipei openly shows it is compromised by a foreign government, the dozens of potential casualties from eventual rocket bombardement no longer matter.

Beijing will confiscate the factories and the stashed property of Taiwanese oligarchs. US has no jurisdiction inside China, so any help they can give to enforce a “ban” would be spiritual at best.

The Taiwanese rich will definitely not surrender their property, factories, relatives and own lives to indulge America in it’s losing war on technology.

Edit: besides, such a move against Huawei, which has the state’s tacit support or at least is not in dispute with the CPC means that China will sanction America at large in retaliation. America lacks the resource extraction technology to make high end electronics, and will be forced to surrender the entire technology sector and only fight with their agricultural and vehicle one.

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tidalwave said:

Come on now, the current wen DPP admin in Taiwan is openly hostile toward China. It practically allows US do whatever it wants so its entirely up to US. If US wants it to declare independence now it would. The ball is in US Court.

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tidalwave said:

On the contrary, [TSMC not selling to Huawei is] a strong possibility. I was watching this taiwanese TV program "Critical Moment" Their analysts predict if push comes to shove and US asking TSMC to sanction Huawei, TSMC would have no choice. Similar to UMC walked away from JHCC. In addition, US would also pressure taiwanese government to make TSMC give up Huawei.

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Hendrik_2000 said:

The moment Taidu declare independent it will be war! come what may. It is Chinese law "anti secessionist law" I don't think America is crazy enough to get involve in the war across Taiwan strait

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Nutrient said:

If Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) does not sell to Huawei, mainland China can retaliate by banning all of TSMC's sales to the mainland. As the semiconductor market in the mainland is now larger than the rest of the world combined, such a ban would probably mean the slow death of TSMC. So go ahead, President Tsai, make one of your little island's biggest companies die slowly.

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tidalwave said:

The current Taiwan admin is not afraid of war if it has US support.

I am saying it will do whatever US asks.

It already banned Huawei equipments following US call.

If US wants TSMC to drop Huawei, Taiwanese government will make sure it happen , no question about that.

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tidalwave said:

Political survival trumps economic.
Taiwan government depend on US for survival
Even brush political reason aside and only in economic term, Taiwan still regard US market bigger than China market. That's why so many Taiwanese companies moving out of China during this trade war.
Actually Taiwan will lose entire Western market if go against US wishes.

Look at China itself, it has to make all kinds of concessions US wants trying to lift up tariffs. If China cannot resist US pressure what make you think Taiwan can resist US pressure??


On top of that, TSMC depends heavily on US equipments for chip survival.

Taiwan will forsake China market if US commands, no question about that.

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Nutrient said:

Taiwan can't count on U.S. support in a war with mainland China. The invasion of Iraq cost the U.S. several trillion dollars; a war with China would cost far more, and would probably break the U.S.

Even if by some miracle the U.S. should join the fight and win it, there is little doubt that Taiwan would become a smoking ruin, and most of the population there would be dead. A few Taiwanese like to talk bravely about fighting the mainland, but are they really willing to die?

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Nutrient said:

Quite often, economic survival is political survival. Committing suicide economically usually means political suicide.

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