China denies report of air defense system transfers to Iran
The original news about Iran receiving SAMs is likely fake news.
That sounds like a pro forma denial, especially the counter-proliferation (WMD) talking points.
Moreover, Iran is technically speaking no longer engaged in hostilities against Israel or vice versa, so there is definitely "wiggle room" should Beijing deliver weapons to Tehran, especially defensive systems.
Ultimately, there's no certainty that a sale was
finalized until we see an official confirmation, which probably won't happen knowing Beijing, or better yet, the rumored Chinese kit in Iranian colors.
However, there simply no time for China to produce any air defense systems for Iran. This is a long process. Similarly, in the case of rumors about J-10C. Even if Iran wants to buy urgently, it takes a lot of time for implementation. This is not a matter of days and a week, but many months and years.
Negotiations between Tehran and Beijing for the HQ-9, J-10 and other Chinese weapons systems began long before the "12 Day War" or the events of October 7, 2023.
The UN arms embargo against Iran expired in October 2020, so the Iranians most likely received "updated pitches" from CATIC, CPMIEC and maybe a couple other major Chinese defense exporters on their latest and greatest offerings months or even a year+ beforehand when it became clear the arms embargo would not be renewed. Major defense deals take years or even a decade+ to negotiate, and such occasions give buyers and sellers an opportunity to check in and see where things stand.
In addition,
, which reportedly does contain a military component:
Both sides view the enhancement of communications and exchanges between their Armed Forces and Ministries of Defense as contributing to stability and security and shall increase the exchange of delegations, consultations and coordination at various levels and shall upgrade the level of cooperation of the Armed Forces of the two countries through cooperation mechanisms in the fields of human resource training, fighting terrorism and exchange of information, as well as equipment and technology.
The talks that led to the Sino-Iranian CSP would've provided another occasion for starting or restarting certain arms sales negotiations, but things obviously didn't get anywhere given the state of Iran's economy and their defense priorities around 2020 and 2021.
More recently in November 2024, a fairly high level Iranian military delegation led by Iranian Air Force Commander Hamid Vahedi visited the Zhuhai Air Show, where Vahedi was photographed inside the cockpit of a J-10CE:
Per Iran's equivalent of Xinhua, the IRNA,
.
Moreover, according to the Tehran Times, which Western sources consider a facet of Iranian state media,
:
General Vahedi's visit was at the invitation of the commander of the Air Force of the People's Republic of China. So far as part of the six-day event, General Vahedi has explored a variety of military equipment, including the Chinese Air Force G-10 fighter, and engaged in discussions with his Chinese counterpart, General Chang Ding Chiu, as well as other air force leaders from allied nations.
The discussions focused on enhancing bilateral relations across various sectors, including potential joint initiatives, such as the expansion of China's use of Iranian air bases and naval facilities in the Persian Gulf, and the exchange of military experiences and technologies.
Given that Vahedi and company flew in for
the Chinese defense expo, the state of hostilities between Iran and Israel in late 2024, and the imminent return of Donald Trump — who was responsible for an unprecedented level of overt American aggression against Iran by ordering the targeted assassination of Qasem Soleimani — to the White House, there's basically "no fucking way" the sale of big ticket items was
not on the agenda during the meeting between Generals Chang and Vahedi in November 2024.
We obviously don't know if the Iranians inked a deal for the HQ-9, J-10 or anything else in November 2024 or thereabouts, but considering the circumstances, it's
plausible that Iranian military brass finally got the funding they wanted from higher ups to order new toys from China.
If that's what happened, deliveries would likely start this year or next year, assuming no one gets cold feet. So we
may find out fairly soon as to whether there's any substance to these rumors.
