Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

I don't think that China will try to take Kinmen and Matsu inorder to use them as a stagging ground for a full scale invasion or bargainning chip with the DPP under normal circumstances, as the invasion of Taiwan has to be completed with in a week, if the offensive drags longer than a week, the Americans will move in their carriers from the Indian Ocean and Hawaii, and make things really difficult for the Chinese

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They don't have to invade right after though. It's not like they would be hard to hold like the Penghu Islands. China could delay an invasion for weeks, months even. Waiting until the perfect moment to strike. In fact, it is possible there will be no need for invasion. China can convince Taiwan to act in China's favor. an invasion of the islands, if truly successful, could easily lead to a Chinese victory. China would never have to resort to open war on the main island and even then an invasion wouldn't be necessary. Imagine the effect of holdding tens of thousand of Taiwanese soldiers captive. China would have justifiable reasons for it. After all, the international community recognizes China's sovereignty over the islands. What would any other country do if a province was raising an army to defend itself from the federal government and received international support militarily? Legally we cannot justify our actions or any other country.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Waiting until the perfect moment to strike. In fact, it is possible there will be no need for invasion.

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If China attaked the islands, it would greatly effect its chances to take Taiwan. Unless they attacked simaltaeneously on the islands and Taiwan or the islands and then strike on Taiwan as quickly as possible. The Chinese would actually gain very little militarily from attacking the islands and then
waiting. It would give the Taiwanese time to fortify beaches, plant bombs on raids, move forces around, protect their planes on their airfields, plant explosives on bridges, etc. More importantly it would give the US time to deploy its forces. So I doubt China would attack the islands simply to take Kinmen and Matsu. This assault would only be done as a part of a larger attack on Taiwan. Otherwise the Chinese would just be making it harder on themselves.

This assault would only be done as a part of a larger attack on Taiwan. Otherwise the Chinese would just be making it harder on themselves.

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You fail to see it. The Taiwanese would not give much support to the government. It would probably be seen as a sign that the DPP is endangering the people of Taiwan.

Vlad Plasmius said:

You fail to see it. The Taiwanese would not give much support to the government. It would probably be seen as a sign that the DPP is endangering the people of Taiwan.

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I'm not going to say that I totally agree with this premise, but it's a plausible guess at how they would react (to the islands being held hostage).

Myself, I can't accurately judge what the majority of people would do in that sort of situation.

To my understanding, the Taiwanese people genearlly aren't going to exactly "roll over" and take it easily, but distaste for war is relatively strong, at least compared to the US or China (No commercials glorifying military force, for example) so it's hard to say whether or not the anger of being bullied so blatantly would overturn the other alternative, which is to just say, "Aw shucks. Maybe life will improve, who knows. It beats getting shot.

Everyone's distaste for war is the same high level if the war is to be fought on one's own soil, destroying one's own home and economy, randomly killing one's own relatives and friends. Citizens of the US have been fortunate enough to not have that since the mid 1800s. Thus, unfortunately for the rest of the world, not even the oldest generation remembers first hand what the devastation of war is like. Thus, there's no distaste for war.

Vlad Plasmius said:

You fail to see it. The Taiwanese would not give much support to the government. It would probably be seen as a sign that the DPP is endangering the people of Taiwan.

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I see it clearly. The DPP is just a political party. China can't attack the DPP. It has to attack Taiwan. And when you attack Taiwan, its citizens will die regardless of their political affiliation. You don't drive people into your arms by bombing them. Just look at Iraq. Given a chance of success (i.e. US intervention) I think that most Taiwanese will take the chance of resisting. However, if they cannot win, they will express the sentiment Zergling contributed.

Aw, shucks.

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Finally, an attack on the islands alone would produce fear in Taiwan's general populace. It is quite possible that they would vote a Kuomantiang presidnet in to power to try to step back from the brink, but any attack would put the possibility of reunification farther in the future, regardless of the party in charge. A Kuomantiang president would be elected in that situation in order to preserve the status quo and prevent further conflict, not give up de-facto independence in the face of threats.

RedMerc, maybe Vietnam has firsthand experience, because some South Vietnam had to fight with the North, and Korea, I believe. North fought better because they were forced to by their leader, and were hopeful with better weapons, and with unification promise. And the South was reluctant to fight.

Finn, your ideal of a world who wants to "defend democracy" is not likely. Europe didn't help Israel in Yom Kippur war because of Arab Oil. And on a same token, how valuable is trade with China? The US however never backs on their word, but they promised to NOT defend Taiwan for CSB, if he keeps making aggressive statements. And their promise of unconditional war with China even if China strikes first is probably like the promise to Israel. Just equipment. But Taiwan will be overpowered no matter what. Israel just had a lot better military personnel in general.

Nuclear war, I say no possibility.



The Bush Sr. administration and Clinton administration both turned down to take military action against china when its military was growing. Its a fact. The gap between US and China is closing, and they didn't want to deal with it when they had a better advantage.

I am sure that generals have a decent brain to work with and know that there is not much point in taking some aggressive actions to small islands and waiting.

The media portrays Iraq as anti-US after intervention. Its not wrong, but not the opposite is true. They have mixed feelings, and like it a bit less than the status-quo there, but real iraqis didn't resist much. Almost their entire army surrendered, but the REAL problem is soldiers coming from other countries like Iran. You don't realize that Arab states do this A LOT, just look at recent history with Arab problems.

Who's going to pour into Taiwan? From out of the country? The backlash within america will be bad too. They really have little sympathy for war with things they don't understand. They would rather pull out of Iraq and let them fend for themselves because America lost 1,000 soldiers. We can agree war with China will inflict extremely heavy casualties compared to that war.

The morale in Taiwan is probably not be that high, no matter what president they have.

You don't drive people into your arms by bombing them.

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That's why an invasion of the islands is different. They are far more important as military installations. It's not like they're bombing a city. That's why it's important. A large portion of the population is military. China can allow the civllians to do whatever they wish as far as travel goes, but hold the soldiers captive. It's very liegitimate behavior. It wouldn't be easy to say that China is being immoral or that it's an international crisis. We're talking tens of thousands of soldiers as prisoners. The people are not going to be too interested in having this go further and they know they can't do anything to defend themselves. If CHina does not show any truly ill behavior then it's likely the people will be less supportove of action against China. What matters most is how China handles it politically. It's a great deal easier, though, than an invasion of Taiwan itself.

Without re-stating yet again, my view on cross strait relations. I will add one tiny point.

China would not simply go ahead and act without gathering any kind of International support. In fact China has been busy doing this ever since Mr Chen made his New Year speech. A steady stream of International Statesman have and are passing through Beijing and all of them are signing trade deals and publicly declaring there adherence to the One China Principle.

Here are some photographs of one such world leader in China last week:









They say a picture can paint a thousand words!

Sampan, Russia would never be a "problem" for China. Although Putin is far too clever to get involved in any other China's war (other than flog it whatever supplies it needed), he has never shown any disquiet about China's attitude towards Taiwan. After all, think about the Russians' attitude towards Chechnya.

No, if there is anyone that needs to be "won over" it is the European Union and America. After all they're the ones that objected to the Anti-Secession Act. And I doubt that they would ever support China taking military action against Taiwan, regardless of the circumstances.