Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

Finn McCool

I meant that the us/international community would offer a choice to China: Back down and give the islands back or risk full scale war.

Click to expand...

Again, China then asks, "What are you going to do about it?" It would be considered distasteful of China, but it's not like they can do anything about it as legally it is recognized as their territory and would therefore certainly not be an arguable issue.

India would feel threatend by such an assertive China. The Europeans would be with NATO. Russia would be the main swing factor but I'm guessing that hey would go with America. At least they wouldn't veto anything because that would be percieved as siding with China.

Click to expand...

You are slowly but surely turning this conversation into a World War III discussion. It wouldn't end up even close. China's actions would probably be frowned upon and looked at, but there will be no real action except to prevent an invasion of the main island. Most likely no one will demand a withdrawal, though they'll ask for one. Everyone knows there's no way anyone could back up any demand for a withdrawal. We're not sacrificing anything for two islands that are sparsely-populated and technically part of China to begin with.

I have a question. What is the topic of this thread really?

Click to expand...

Pretty straightforward.

Basically, prevent war by scaring China and making it realize it isn't going get away with snatching Kinmen and Matsu.

Click to expand...

How? That's the problem and why I bring up conflict. There's nothing we could do to China. Threatening war will get us no where and any attempt to back it up would be disasterous for us.

i doubt the europeans will do much, or the american government. remember that the economy of your own nation is always more important than the survivabilty of another nation even if its an ally. if it's a ally with liabilities like taiwan, then you can forgive about defending it.. especially if the rival can offer good economic incentives.

remember NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance, only if an nato nation gets attacked does it truly take effect, if there's an offensive operation, it's pretty much voluntary.

UN can't do anything, and most government's don't give a damn if a nation is "democratic" (i put that in quotes bc USA is really an aristocracy, or olligarcy, and not truly democratic anymore) or a nation is "communist" (that is in quotes because we pretty much all know china is more capitalist than most other countires in the world). and most nations won't risk their own economy to antagonize china.

here's a little example.. if let's say USA decides to put pressure on china, china can dump all american bonds, then stop all shipments to US. in a month all stores in the US will be completely empty, anything anyone want to buy will have skyrocketed prices, and that's when the american public want to get on the chinese good side. sure it will hurt the chinese economy, but they'll show the world how the world need china and once and for all make sure no nation will ever even think of pissing china off.

Given the choice of fighting a real war or getting a face-saving agreement and then claiming victory or something China would definately choose option #2.

Click to expand...

Hmmm... lets see how that would play out.

Public Announcement from Hu Jintao:
"Our forces have just achieved a maravelous victory against the Taiwanese rebels! We were able to secure two of their minor offshore islands, which clearly taught those separtist dogs a lesson. They are now chastised for their existence, and they will never again dare to do absolutely nothing! Even the Americans didn't dare get in the way of our forces. After hours of negogiations dominated by us, we were able to gain many concessions among the Americans, highlighted by a promise not to decimate us completely. In return, all we have to do is to give up the islands that are the fruits of our victory. A new age has dawned in which we are now recognized as a world power. No nation shall ever dare to coerce us again without threats and intimidation!"

In my opinion as long as the war doesn't get too personal then I don't think the average Chinese person will be too against it. Kinda like the US mindset, only when the magnitude and horror of war sinks in to people start to oppose it, but before that it's all a video game, the "glory" of a nation. (Just switch on the TV in the States and you get military recruitment ads all the time, I imagine there's a similiar situation in China).

So, realistically I don't think China would fear a full scale (non-nuke) war over the islands, so long as the public only gets the good news, and sees it as a just war to right some wrongs.

So, realistically I don't think China would fear a full scale (non-nuke) war over the islands, so long as the public only gets the good news, and sees it as a just war to right some wrongs.

Click to expand...

Eh... not so much once cruise missiles and precision-munitions dropped by B2's start landing around Beijing and major ports, airfields, and industrial centers...
Especially if they have no way to retaliate. Even sinking carriers is not at the same level as bombing the heart of a nation.

Indeed. I was just pointing out that war would be much more personal for the Taiwanese (compared to the Chinese or Americans) which would either help motivate the troops to get some revenge for some dead friend/relative/significant other or else it would have them surrender to just get it over with, expecting China not to do things like imprison everyone.

But even when there are bombs being dropped on you, sometimes it just strengthens resolve. Like I said earlier, war is getting less and less personal for technologically advanced nations, the US government has an official policy of not showing the flag shrouded casket of fallen soldiers. Not even the dead bodies of the soldiers, mind you, just the clean and (morbidly) pretty American flag draped on a coffin. They're afraid of the public losing its taste for the war once the reality that it's not a video game sinks in.

Now, I'm not sure how well this would apply to China. For one thing, I have no idea how well communication works in China, I know that there's the internet nearly all over the US so if something bad happens (like Los Angeles getting bombed) everyone's going to know about it.

If some B-2s bombed some industrial city in China, I'm not sure if everyone would know about it, but this is mainly because of my ignorance regarding China, and if anyone more knowlegeable could clear this up I'd really appreciate it.

But anyway, my point still stands that as long as war is "un-personalized" and the bombs aren't falling on them, people generally go along with it, at least that's what I've been led to believe, watching history, and people on the internet who flaunt military force as if it makes their country great, and see war as something glorious.

Some very good points you make. Although the Chinese government may try to hush up news regarding B2 attacks and internet in China might be less developed than it is in the US, the word will eventually get out. At least the people living in the industrial cities will notice that they are getting bombed, and most likely at least some of these people will divluge this information to relatives and friends over the phone, and pretty soon much of the urban population will figure out that they are being bombed. It is not a good feeling to have when you are being bombed and you know you can't bomb them back.

The_Zergling said:

On a side note, I believe that the US reluctance to sell really high-notch weaponry to Taiwan does have a lot to do with the fact that they could very possibly fall into the hands of China, either via forceful or peaceful unification. I just don't see the US exporting F-22s or the newest AMRAAMs anytime soon, also taking into account that in all likelihood Taiwan will elect a pan-blue President in 2008, and might just decide to unify.

Click to expand...

Noooo...

Uncle Sam doesn't want to sell a stockpile of advanced weapons, because it might encourage the pro-TI guys to declare TI and fight it out.

The US has placed restrictions on even F-35 exports to allied countries that contributed to its development:


Britain warns US over jet software codes

£12bn Joint Strike Fighter order could be scrapped
Matt Chapman, vnunet.com 15 Mar 2006

The UK has warned America that it will cancel its £12bn order for the Joint Strike Fighter if the US does not hand over full access to the computer software code that controls the jets.

Lord Drayson, minister for defence procurement, told the The Daily Telegraph that the planes were useless without control of the software as they could effectively be "switched off" by the Americans without warning.

I can't believe how many Americans have an opinion on the Taiwan issue without any knowledge of what kind of nasty surprises await any US intervention in the straits. I mean, geez, there's an entire site of military information here.

It's also ironically laughable how many Americans think the world loves them to death and will follow them to the death. Europeans already despise the Americans. Not to even mention Cold War enemies like the Russians.