Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands

Ask for delete.

Ignoring all the reasons NOT to use force...
I think precisely now isn't the time. China can wait to see how this Iran thing pans out. By vetoing sanctions, it could possibly force an air campaign/resulting fallout and use that as a diversion. Also there's the little matter of 2008 Olympics. Plus the 2006 November elections in the US. Because of the elections, there will be substantial pressure on politicians to appear "tough" on China, making the chances of intervention higher.

Tactically, wait for the next typhoon to cover your mobilization from satilites. Or the predicted heightened solar storms this year.

Besides, I'm visiting over summer, I don't need the extra hassle

Yeah. And nearly all of my friends and family, not to mention significant other are in Taiwan. Suffice to say, I'm not looking forward to armed conflict.

Sure would be nice if nothing ever happened, like I said earlier. It's simply a hypothesis and analysis, looking to see if anyone else has interesting views that differ from mine.

I'm tilting towards the "time is on China's side" argument, although the question still stands, that if indeed time is on China's side, would it be in the best interests of Taiwan Independence factions to do it now and get it over with?

I don't know if you've noticed it, but you tend to get PLAAF and ROCAF mixed up a little... But anyway...

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I'm pretty sure that's the only time I did it, but oh well.

In the meantime I disagree with you regarding distance hindering the response times of F-16s. While several important squadrons of F-16s are based at Hualien, on the Eastern coast of Taiwan (it's called "Alamo" by the Taiwanese) there are also several fighter squadrons based at Chiayi, which is sort of southwest, but is relatively closed to Kaoshiung, which is undeniably a big population center.

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Oh yes, I was largely refering to the two tips. which are more important for immediate purposes. They have the major ports, air fields, and would allow for an effective defense from any foreign interfernce.

Other major cities, such as Taichung and Taipei all have fighter squadrons in the vicinity, F-CK-1s from Ching-Chuan Kang near Taichung (In fact they used to fly over my home in Taiwan all the time),

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Thing is, how long would it take for an aircraft launched in China to reach Taiwan? Say the aircraft go 600 mph. It would take 10 - 15 minutes to reach Taiwan. It would take maybe 10 - 15 minutes to get a squadron of fighters in the air. Then they have to go maybe 600 mph or maybe around 700 mph. If they have just 35 miles to go it would take 3 minutes to reach the area. Hsinchu is like 50 miles from Taipei. That mean the Mirage 2000-5s would have to travel 50 miles after that 15 minutes to scramble if there was an attack on Taipei. Chances are they'd know where to go about 5 minutes beforehand. If they go 700 mph they'll take 4 minutes to get there. In other words, they'd have a minute to spare, under ideal conditions. If they don't learn of incoming hostile fighters until 10 minutes beforehand take 15 minutes to scramble and only go 500 mph to get to Taipei, then the PLAAf would probably have already done what they came to do and be leaving.

Obviously, the effectiveness of the ROCAF has yet to be proven, but it's indisputable that the fighters are within effective range.

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Effective range if they know of the fighters beforehand and exactly where they're going. Fighter going towards Taiwan could be headed anywhere. They'll pick 'em up on radar , but by then it'll probably be too late because if it's a strike missions the escorts will already be completely aware of any nearby fighters and ready, while if it's an air superiority missions they'll know where they are and go right for 'em. If the PLAAF fighters actually performing air patrol over areas already taking and the ROCAF decides to attack them, the air patrol will pick them up right when they take off and be able to take them on at their weakest.

Vlad Plasmius said:

I'm pretty sure that's the only time I did it, but oh well.

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Well in all honesty I may have mistaken one of your posts from someone else. It's the second time I saw this error on the board, and I may have misattributed a post by you. If so, my apologies.

Vlad Plasmius said:

Thing is, how long would it take for an aircraft launched in China to reach Taiwan? Say the aircraft go 600 mph.
*snip calculations*
Hsinchu is like 50 miles from Taipei. That mean the Mirage 2000-5s would have to travel 50 miles after that 15 minutes to scramble if there was an attack on Taipei. Chances are they'd know where to go about 5 minutes beforehand. If they go 700 mph they'll take 4 minutes to get there. In other words, they'd have a minute to spare, under ideal conditions.

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Here I disagree, even though your calculations are largely accurate. For one thing, I don't think aircraft would be charging acros the strait at 600MPH. For one thing, it guzzles a lot of fuel, and if they were met with fierce opposition requiring dogfighting or evasive action, it is quite possible they would not be able to make it back to China safely.

Also, though Hsinchu is indeed roughly 50 miles from Taipei, what you may have overlooked is that the Mirages don't have to reach Taipei airspace before they can engage Chinese fighters. It's not the day of the gunfighters anymore, MICAs, anyone?

Vlad Plasmius said:

If they don't learn of incoming hostile fighters until 10 minutes beforehand take 15 minutes to scramble and only go 500 mph to get to Taipei, then the PLAAf would probably have already done what they came to do and be leaving.

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And this is probably the biggest swing factor in any potential air to air combat scenario. From what I've heard, Taiwan is constantly monitoring takeoffs from coastal Chinese bases, and whenever they detect a flight of PLAAF fighters taking off they either scramble or ready-up fighteres in response. Now, this is just something I heard, and I have no evidence to back up or disprove this. It's just something to consider, as it seems like a doctrine any half-competent Air Force in charge of protecting a threatened country would do.

Yeah Zergling. I agree. Don't forget that the islands that started this discussion have SAM batteries and AAA, so the PLAAF could not take the most direct route across the Straits without trouble if they were not taken out beforehand.

What SAM and AAA capabilities does the ROCAF have in Taiwan? Are they deployed or are they on a base somewhere in a warehouse? Can you drive by a SAM site in your car? Some of our Taiwanese memebers could probably help with this question.

Here I disagree, even though your calculations are largely accurate. For one thing, I don't think aircraft would be charging acros the strait at 600MPH. For one thing, it guzzles a lot of fuel, and if they were met with fierce opposition requiring dogfighting or evasive action, it is quite possible they would not be able to make it back to China safely.

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600mph is not charging if they're at a reasonably high altitude. At some altitudes the aircraft are capable of transonic cruise, so it's not unreasonable. Even at a speed of 300, we're talking 24 minutes at most with that slow reaction time and assuming the Mirage-2000s aren't rushing either and don't immeditaely figure out where the fighters are headed. There really just isn't much difference made by speed. My only reason for the high speeds is to consider the fastest possible victory for the PLA. If the PLAAF fighters used these speeds it would provide very sufficient time to drop their load and leave the airspace.

Another possible strategy is sending in another group of fighters to attack the Mirages.

Also, though Hsinchu is indeed roughly 50 miles from Taipei, what you may have overlooked is that the Mirages don't have to reach Taipei airspace before they can engage Chinese fighters. It's not the day of the gunfighters anymore, MICAs, anyone?

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I didn't overlook it, but launching missiles from their max range is pretty ridiculous. They'd have to get fairly close and they'd probably be better off getting within five miles. They might be able to get there in time and take out a fighter or two, assuming they are close.

And this is probably the biggest swing factor in any potential air to air combat scenario. From what I've heard, Taiwan is constantly monitoring takeoffs from coastal Chinese bases, and whenever they detect a flight of PLAAF fighters taking off they either scramble or ready-up fighteres in response. Now, this is just something I heard, and I have no evidence to back up or disprove this. It's just something to consider, as it seems like a doctrine any half-competent Air Force in charge of protecting a threatened country would do.

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That's why taking out the radars would be important. The radars capable of detecting PLAAF fighters taking off are few. There's around 14. China can take these out easily from the middle line. Without these and the AWACS, equally easy targets, Taiwan would only know of fighters coming towards China when they're a little across the Straits.