Vlad Plasmius said:
In fact, if the ROCAF goes after the few radar installations capable of seeing far into Chinese airspace and all of the Taiwn Straits they can further enchance their ability to surprise Taiwan.
Taipei is protected only by the PAC-2s plus air support from Mirages and F-5s. In other words, China could probably not worry about interceptors and would only have to be concerned about the air defenses, which can't intercept cruise missiles. In other words the PAC-2s could be taken out easily as long as fighters fly low and use LACMs.
I don't know if you've noticed it, but you tend to get PLAAF and ROCAF mixed up a little... But anyway...
No debate regarding early warning. Knowing your opponent's next move is always important in any conflict.
In the meantime I disagree with you regarding distance hindering the response times of F-16s. While several important squadrons of F-16s are based at Hualien, on the Eastern coast of Taiwan (it's called "Alamo" by the Taiwanese) there are also several fighter squadrons based at Chiayi, which is sort of southwest, but is relatively closed to Kaoshiung, which is undeniably a big population center.
Other major cities, such as Taichung and Taipei all have fighter squadrons in the vicinity, F-CK-1s from Ching-Chuan Kang near Taichung (In fact they used to fly over my home in Taiwan all the time), Taoyuan Air Command composed of F-5s to defend Taipei, complemented by Mirage 2000s based in Hsinchu, which is in the arguably best position to support both Taipei and Taichung. Obviously, the effectiveness of the ROCAF has yet to be proven, but it's indisputable that the fighters are within effective range.
Sampanviking said:
The PRC has I believe terminally undermined the Presidency of Mr Chen and the Independance cause, by cordial dealings with the KMT and other Pan Blue Parties, in combination with a robust International diplomacy with regards cross straits issues.
China's stance towards Taiwan is indeed something of interest. To me, one of the reasons the situation has gotten to the absurdity of today is because Beijing didn't react accordingly or fast enough when Taiwan began to walk/stumble towards democracy. Some people like to point out that Beijing's lobbing of missiles in 1996 was a symbol of the CCP's irrational militancy.
Whilst that may be true, it shouldn't be forgotten that 1996 was the first time that the ROC even had democratic elections. Beijing didn't fully understand that the targets of its propoganda (and missiles) was no longer the authoritarian dictatorship that dictated terms for the Taiwanese public, but instead 23 million individual "laobaixing" who probably didn't take kindly to being threatened.
Now, after 8 years (and a couple of DPP presidential election victories) Beijing finally "gets it", to some extent. What makes unification hard is that on one side we gradually start seeing the growth of some blinded Taiwanese nationalists who see the whole situation as a win-lose situation. On the other hand, threats and condescension from the PRC continues to this day. (increase of missiles ever year, unilateral threat to use force) However, despite this it is still recognizable that Beijing has changed tactics dramatically over the past few years.
I'm not doubting the friendly attitude many Chinese have toward Taiwan, but there's a whole bureaucracy that's sending a different message. But at least the CCP is changing tactics to try to "win the hearts and minds" of the Taiwanese people, what with issues like agriculture, trade, open flights, and Pandas. Whether or not it will work remains to be seen if Beijing does not renounce the use of force.
On a slightly off topic issue, personally I think that 100 years from now the notion of "Nationalism" will join the ranks of other "isms", prejudice, and stereotyping. Love for one's country is good and all, but hell, why should it stop at the border? ^_^
And a big thanks to everyone for hearing me out. Maybe one day we'll see the Sticky Announcement changed.
