Quite doubtful there'll be any storms. Modi doesn't seem to have the will for a fight and so far based on reasonable and reputable Indian commentators, it appears that China has been doing the adventurism into disputed areas. Modi's got a lot on his plate now and recently Moody's just cut India's credit rating to BAA3 - a moderate credit risk. But then again perhaps a war is exactly what India should be doing.
I can't exactly make sense of China's offensive here this month. Is it in response to India joining the "quad alliance"? or India's move made on Kashmir from last year?
You have been reading too much Indian and western media to think China’s actions are ‘adventurism’.
As a general rule, China has no interest in playing the kinds of stupid military misadventure games that India seems to prefer. Probably because it doesn’t need to whip up popularism support for elections every few years.
China has settled all its land boarder disputes expect with India, whereas India has land boarder disputes with just about everyone it has a land boarder with. So who is the expansionist disruptive power really?
China kept its troop levels in the boarders to a reasonable number, whereas it is the Indian side who first started basing significant troops strengths near the boarder, as the former Iraqi Information minister now working for the Indians love to boast about. So again, who is the side increasing tensions?
China would love nothing more than settled, quiet and peaceful boarders, but it knows that with the Indians, appeasement will only invite more ridiculous demands.
It is precisely because China does not want to have to teach another 1962 level lesson to keep the Indians in line that they are being robust in their responses to small probing incursions and provocations.
However, even China’s patience is finite. As we have seen with the SCS, if it gets fed up, it tends to make big, bold and decisive moves to both demonstrate power and resolve, but also to fundamentally alter the tactical and strategic picture as a more permanent means of deterring future petty and meaningless clashes.
The deployments we are seeing now by China is likely such a move. China is putting its fingers on India’s northern jugular and gently tapping asking India if it really wants to go. That’s more than what Modi was banking on, hence the shushing of Indian press and quietly climbing down.
You just need to look at the hardware both sides brought to the table in the most recent standoff to see the gulf in logistics. The Chinese brought a light armour car and had heavy machinery further behind. The Indian troops only had borrowed police riot shields and were reduced to bashing at armour plate with their own helmets.
India is massing troops near the boarder because their poor infrastructure demands it if they want to be able to quickly respond in force. China doesn’t need to because it can redeploy vast numbers of men and material within hours from hundreds or even thousands of miles away within hours.
Modi was probably trying to pull a Trump, and was banking on China not wishing to fight a meaningless boarder skirmish and was probably trying to score some cheap political points to help distract his government’s incompetent handing of the COVID19 outbreak and ridiculously poorly planned and worse executed lockdown.
The problem is that he was trying to bluff with a hand full of nothing while China was holding all the aces and both sides knows exactly what cards each other have. That’s like a guy on a bike trying to play chicken with a bullet train.
His timing is also terrible, as China’s leaders would have been pretty pissed with Trump’s attempted scapegoating of China already, so Modi trying to have a go as well would have touched a raw nerve at a time when Beijing’s patience was at an all time low as it is.
There is also an old Chinese proverb involving a chicken and monkey that spring to mind in this scenario.