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MwRYum

Major
Well its less a case of 20-20 hindsight and more to do with project management and even common sense.

The state of the Russian shipbuilding industry was never a secret, and some pointed questions should have been asked right at the start regarding the feasibility of the original Russian offer and assurances sought.

Then, when Russia pulled their 'renegotiation' trick to blackmail the Indians for more money, they should have countered with an ultimatum that the Russians complete the contract as per the originally agreed price and schedule, or they would not only cancel that deal but put all other contracts with Russia on hold, as China did when Russia tried to pull the same crap with the Il76 transports and tankers.

The worst thing is India didn't seem to have learnt a thing from this fiasco, and appears to be falling for the same trick a second time with the PAKFA. Already there are talks of schedule slips and cost overruns. Who wanna bet we won't be seeing a repeat of history there?

Poor project management is by now a "given" when we talk about India, thus I didn't even bother to bring that up...for their own sake I'd hope to see something to prove otherwise, but...you know the rest.

If you leave it to the Chinese netizens they'd generally laugh it off as some kind of "congenital stupidity" the Indians seems to be suffering from, but I firmly believe that there has to be something more logical to explain all that.

The thing that the Russians couldn't blackmail the Chinese the same way they made the Indians submit, would probably the Chinese actually prepared to grit it, much like airborne troops got used to cut off by the enemies. Also, even if the Indians made the decisions to stop the bleeding and source it elsewhere or wing it on their own, with their industrial base it'd mean a hell lot more delays before the necessary buildup is complete, and present a weak position in negotiation for joint venture - in short, it'd just become someone else to rip them off.

For one thing, the Indians need to take stocks and stop aiming for the moon, revamp their establishment to sort out the chronic project management problems, and improve its industrial base to strengthen their bargaining positions.
 

Franklin

Captain
The biggest problem of the Vikramaditya deal in my view isn't even the cost overruns and delays, but the fact that the ship itself stinks. That ship is the most eccentric carrier out there in a very negative way. And for the 20 to 30 years that the Indian navy would operate that carrier will have to deal with all its flaws and drawbacks. It doesn't give enough bang for the buck. If the Vikramaditya would have been a efficient carrier then the 5 years wait and the 2,33 billion $ price tag would have been worth it.

Of course China was never offert the Admiral Gorshkov if China couldn't get the Varyag and the Russians offers China the same deal as to India in 2003 do you think that China would have said no ?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Poor project management is by now a "given" when we talk about India, thus I didn't even bother to bring that up...for their own sake I'd hope to see something to prove otherwise, but...you know the rest.

If you leave it to the Chinese netizens they'd generally laugh it off as some kind of "congenital stupidity" the Indians seems to be suffering from, but I firmly believe that there has to be something more logical to explain all that.

The thing that the Russians couldn't blackmail the Chinese the same way they made the Indians submit, would probably the Chinese actually prepared to grit it, much like airborne troops got used to cut off by the enemies. Also, even if the Indians made the decisions to stop the bleeding and source it elsewhere or wing it on their own, with their industrial base it'd mean a hell lot more delays before the necessary buildup is complete, and present a weak position in negotiation for joint venture - in short, it'd just become someone else to rip them off.

For one thing, the Indians need to take stocks and stop aiming for the moon, revamp their establishment to sort out the chronic project management problems, and improve its industrial base to strengthen their bargaining positions.

Good points. I think if the Indians actually accepted reality and moderated their aims down from trying to match China to just being enough to deter Pakistan, then domestic Indian kit would be just about good enough for the vast majority of its forces, and they could top that up with modest purchases of advanced foreign kit that would more than offset any small batch top end purchase Pakistan might get from China or the US.

Once they have their domestic industry developed, then and only then should they even think about trying to match China because that is the only sustainable way to go about this. Unless India plans to fight a war with China tomorrow, all the expensive foreign kit they bought can only be thought of as an outright expense rather than an investment, because in 10, 20 years time, when those weapons start showing their age and need to be replaced, they would be right back to pretty much the same position they were in now with no realistic domestic option and having to pay through the nose for top of the line foreign kit again. If anything, if current trends holds, India will probably be in a far worse position, because while today, what is available on the market might be as good as what China is fielding or even better, in 10, 20 years' time, you would really struggle to find anything on the market that is as good as what the Chinese will be fielding. If the Indians weight till then to put serious investment into its domestic defence industry, it will be too late by far.

However, even with its current procurement strategy, it is puzzling how India can get played so much be Russia. Unlike China, India has all the defence companies of the west and America pretty much lining up trying to get a piece of its action. If the Russians are playing fast a loose with the contracts, just switch all their contracts to European and American companies, or even merely threaten to do so should be enough to get the Russians to buck up their ideas.

Part of the reason the Il76 deal when belly up was because the Russians mistakenly thought the Chinese had no alternative and dismissed the indigenous Chinese aviation industry on account of its lack of previous experience with heavy transports, and I suspect a similar thing happened with the J11B contract and the Russians cut off engine supplies thinking they could play hardball with China while dismissing China's domestic engine industry. Russia was proven wrong on both counts and pretty much lost the entire Chinese market as a result of that miscalculation, but they should not have been under the same illusion about India not having alternative options. Their domestic industries are not a realistic alternative, but as I said, India could, and probably should have turned to European and American firms, if to do nothing else than to highlight the fact that they have other options and to make it clear to the Russians that that sort of thing is not on.

Instead, the Indians folded without even putting up a token effort to fight their corner, and it would be pretty stupid to think that the Russians won't try to pull the same trick again after getting away with it previously.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Of course China was never offert the Admiral Gorshkov if China couldn't get the Varyag and the Russians offers China the same deal as to India in 2003 do you think that China would have said no ?

Yes, I do think China would have said 'no' even if offered, just like how they said 'no' when the Russians offered them in on the PAKFA.

For China, sustainability is key. They are not really interested in buying anything unless it advances their domestic industries to the point whereby China would be able to make that weapon or something equivalent entirely on its own after the deal has concluded.

All in all, China may well have spend just as much if not more than what India forked out on the Vikra effectively rebuilding the Varyag into the Liaoning and pretty much setting up a carrier construction industry. However, that was worth it for the Chinese because the exercise and expense spent with the Liaoning has set up a domestic carrier industry for China, and China can and will make more, better carriers than the Liaoning with the knowledge, experience and industrial base it has established in her rebuilding.

For the PLAN, the Liaoning is its first, and least capable carrier. Every Chinese built carrier that comes after her will be either bigger or at least better. Contrast that to the Indian experience, and the Vikra will probably be its most powerful carrier despite all of its inherent flaws and limitations because the indigenous Indian shipbuilding industry has not benefited in any way, shape or form from her refit, and is at precisely the same place as if the Vikra deal has never transpired. No actually, amend that because without the Vikra acting as a money black hole sucking in far more funding than was originally planned and allocated, India's domestic carrier industry may well have received more investment and maybe even an order for another carrier. So the net effect of the Vikra deal for the Indian shipbuilding industry is probably negative.
 

paintgun

Senior Member
The state of the Russian shipbuilding industry was never a secret, and some pointed questions should have been asked right at the start regarding the feasibility of the original Russian offer and assurances sought.

...

The worst thing is India didn't seem to have learnt a thing from this fiasco, and appears to be falling for the same trick a second time with the PAKFA. Already there are talks of schedule slips and cost overruns. Who wanna bet we won't be seeing a repeat of history there?

Russia's aerospace industry is in much better shape than it's shipbuilding, Sukhoi is flush with cash as well to the point they can put money into developing a regional flyer. It is probably safe to say that PAK-FA will manage to stay on schedule, bar any big incidents. If anything I find the opposite news about the project, it is running pretty well.

But I agree the Indians are already showing the symptoms of getting shafted yet another time. Big commitment yet shallow result.

Initial plan of distinct Indian FGFA variant -> scrapped
Two seater Indian variant -> scrapped
Now they are onto MKI-like scheme of production for India
 

MwRYum

Major
Russia's aerospace industry is in much better shape than it's shipbuilding, Sukhoi is flush with cash as well to the point they can put money into developing a regional flyer. It is probably safe to say that PAK-FA will manage to stay on schedule, bar any big incidents. If anything I find the opposite news about the project, it is running pretty well.

But I agree the Indians are already showing the symptoms of getting shafted yet another time. Big commitment yet shallow result.

Initial plan of distinct Indian FGFA variant -> scrapped
Two seater Indian variant -> scrapped
Now they are onto MKI-like scheme of production for India

India has the tendency to use arms purchases as tools of diplomacy. That's all good mostly but somehow somewhere they lost sight to the practical aspect of it. A nation that's the size of Singapore can afford that degree of mix-bag arsenal (so long you sorted out the integration part of the problem), but a large military arm like India? The kind of globalization they're doing will backfire when there's a major conflict that last more than a month, attrition will eat through the stocks on hand and shipments ain't necessary come on moment's notice, especially if and when powers in the background want to hold things back as leverage/bargaining chip for grander scheme of things.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Russia's aerospace industry is in much better shape than it's shipbuilding, Sukhoi is flush with cash as well to the point they can put money into developing a regional flyer. It is probably safe to say that PAK-FA will manage to stay on schedule, bar any big incidents. If anything I find the opposite news about the project, it is running pretty well.

But I agree the Indians are already showing the symptoms of getting shafted yet another time. Big commitment yet shallow result.

Initial plan of distinct Indian FGFA variant -> scrapped
Two seater Indian variant -> scrapped
Now they are onto MKI-like scheme of production for India

Sukhoi's cash surplus is a very recent development. Whether that makes up for the many years of under-investment in all aspects of the Russian aviation and hi-tech industries after the collapse of the USSR or the limited funding the Russian military had to spend remains to be seen.

The PAKFA has already slipped a year on the scheduled IOC of 2015, and I would not at all be surprised if there are more slippages on the schedule, and I would be amazed if the Indians are not asked to fork out more than originally agreed before they get any birds.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
India has the tendency to use arms purchases as tools of diplomacy. That's all good mostly but somehow somewhere they lost sight to the practical aspect of it. A nation that's the size of Singapore can afford that degree of mix-bag arsenal (so long you sorted out the integration part of the problem), but a large military arm like India? The kind of globalization they're doing will backfire when there's a major conflict that last more than a month, attrition will eat through the stocks on hand and shipments ain't necessary come on moment's notice, especially if and when powers in the background want to hold things back as leverage/bargaining chip for grander scheme of things.

If they are doing it, then they have it arse backwards in more ways than one.

Firstly, only small and militarily weak nations use weapons purchases as a tool of diplomacy by using their purchases as a token of their felty, and as such, they are paying for more than mere arms with their silver. That is why few non-American companies put in more than a token effort when US vassal states like South Korea or Japan put out major arms tenders, and those who forget and actually put in real effort and money into trying to win the deals always come away disappointed and angry.

Real powers use weapons sales as tool for diplomacy. That is the first way that the Indian approach is arse backwards.

Secondly, the golden rule of any nation that wants to remain free and prosperous is that you don't screw around with national defence. The Chinese once forgot that and paid for that folly with a century of death, humiliation and suffering. It is a lesson most dearly learnt and one unlikely to be forgotten again in a hurry.

You use commercial contracts for diplomacy, but you should never ever compromise your own national security by picking weapons based on anything other than the merits of those weapons and how well they fit within your overall defence strategy and structure. That is why for all the closeness between China and Pakistan, Pakistan have always favoured western equipment and systems in the past, and are only switch to Chinese gear after careful evaluation and conclusion that the Chinese kit has come of age and suit their needs as well as, if not better than anything the west cares to offer.

The only exception to that rule is when, as pointed out in point 1 above, if you are paying for more than just the arms when you make a big ticket weapons purchase.

I do agree with you that logistics is the Indian military's great Achilles Heel, and has said so many times before. Any country that has fought a real war will know full well that logistics are just as important, if not more so than your soldiers and generals when it comes to winning wars. Many a great general has been humbled throughout history by poor logistics.

All I have seen thus far has only reinforced by belief that the Indians do not understand or appreciate this most basic reality of war. Their leaders care too much about the paper specs of weapons and bragging rights certain status symbol weapons grant them, and not enough about how well those weapons suit their own needs or how to keep those weapons supplied with munitions during war, never mind the issue of attrition replacements or how to boost their fighting strength in a protracted conflict.

The Indian military as it stands is built for peace and the kinds of small, short low intensity conflicts against a far weaker foe that would end before logistics becomes a real concern. While it might look impressive on paper at first glance, as soon as you take a closer look, the fundamental flaws become readily apparent, as does a near fool-proof strategy of how to defeat it - logistics.

The Indian military would fold all by itself if an opponent can sustain intensive combat operations for more than a few weeks irrespective of actual combat exchange ratios. India's own generals realise this plain enough. Which is why they came up with the ridiculous idea of knocking China out of a two-front war involving Pakistan in 72 hours.

That was driven as much by desperation as it is by hubris, and is less a case of India thinking it can actually knock China out in 72hours, but more than India has to knock China out of the war ASAP or else its game over for them.

The similarities and resemblance between India's position and those of Japan's per-Pearl Harbour are starkly similar, and I fear a grave Indian miscalculation in the event of all out war between India and Pakistan, with India deciding it needs to launch a surprise attack not unlike Pearl Harbour to try and knock China out of the war before it can get involved.
 
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MwRYum

Major
That's why the Indians are finding - and have found - kindred spirits in the Japanese leadership. Just look at how close India and Japan are getting along, and Japanese politicians are whipping up a tide that another Sino-Japanese War is just a matter of "when", not "if".

Leaders in Tokyo and New Deli are dreaming the same dream of defeating China, then carve it up amongst themselves.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I would not put too much stock into the rhetoric coming out of India or Japan in particular since Japanese PMs don't tend to stay in power long enough to follow through on their talk.

India and Japan are moving closer because of their shared perception of China as their primary external threat. But I would not go so far as saying they dream of carving China up. Even their most hardcore fanboys cannot be that delusional.
 
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