I know you all do not have much faith on India's past track record, as do I, but if there is any moment of breakthrough for the Indians, this time line and project seems to be the right candidate.
If they manage to screw this one up badly (delays and cost overruns are inevitable for such kind of projects, but none has the record like India), and cause it to be shelved or deemed unfit for operations, they will have no chance left to achieve some technological parity with China, at least sectoral in the aerospace field.
AMCA will benefit from Tejas experience, and i think it is in a less hostile environment for such development compared to the Tejas era, however the symptom from the past Tejas mistakes can already be seen, overreaching requirements for the i-want-all-the-current best-stuff-possible for the aircraft.
Together with the KF-X/IF-X, AMCA fills the same niche and seems to be designed at approximately the same design goals and requirements. So, comparison can be made safely about the two projects.
AMCA seems to be 3 years behind the KF-X at this moment, which has arrived at the third iteration and is in the process of trying to fill in the technological gaps remaining on the design, some 42 out of the 300 something.
If we are to be optimistic about both projects, KF-X will make it's first flight in perhaps 2015-2016 timeline (scheduled to enter production in 2020), and AMCA in 2017-2018.
The AMCA, no matter how successful, will not give India any sort of technological parity with China. At most it will be a solid step in that direction, but India is far too behind to dream that any single project could hope to bridge the gap and magically bring them level with China. Having that sort of zero to hero mentality is what keep getting their projects in trouble to start with. But it would also be presumptuous to say that if the AMCA fails India will never catch up with China, after all how many people would have expected China to be where it is now even 20 years ago? India has all the raw ingredients for success that China has, and if they can tap that effectively, there is no limit to what they can do, the same as for China today.
But India is far far behind China in almost every quantifiable and measueable way. Fact. Only by accepting its current place can India hope to improve it, and the first and best thing India can do is give up on its pipe dream of achieving military parity with China in the foreseeable future.
What India should have done, and should do now is get their indigenous stuff finished and deployed so that their indigenous campaniles can get some much needed capital for investment and build on their efforts by retaining key staff and skills, making long term capital investments and get feedback and input from the military to help them improve on their designs. They need to do this irrespective of how their first efforts might compare to what China is fielding and working on, because odds are, it will compare badly. Only by biting the bullet and swallowing their pride can India hope to one day catch up with. That means they should stop moving the goal posts for their designs every time a major leak for the PLA reveals some new project or advancement and just aim for their new stuff to have as much domestic content as realistic and be an improvement over what they are fielding right now, which shouldn't be that hard.
The next step after they have done that is aim for their indigenous stuff to be as good as what they can buy from abroad, then gradually wean themselves off of expensive and resource sapping imports, which should build a positive feedback loop where the money saved from reduced imports are invested in indigenous capability which further boosts indigenous capacity.
Only after they have reach that stage should the Indians start worrying about what China is working on.
The Indians could potentially have been up to stage two of trying to match indigenous products to imports have they just got the Tejas fielded ASAP a decade ago and saved themselves the need to buy Rafales, but instead, the Tejas has become a bit of a drag and a drain on resources as it becomes increasingly obsolete and far worse, redundant in the IAF force structure. Instead of being a substitute for imports, it has become something saddled on the IAF in addition to expensive imports. The Tejas should either have been allowed to die and the team behind it tasked to spend their time and resources on the next gen of indigenous fight based on the lessons learned from the Tejas, or rushed into service instead of buying Rafales.
So, far from helping, the indigenous projects are somehow becoming a drag on improvements as resources are still being spent on a now redundant aircraft, and investment being made on last generation manufacturing machines that may be ill suited to building the likes of the AMCA. They are now just wasting time and money they really cannot afford to squander.