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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tbf China can't really get involved into a high-intensity conflict with India or any other country (assuming they aren't defending Taiwan like the US) until the Taiwan issue is resolved. Taiwan is far too important. Any major conflict may embolden Taiwan to end the status quo.

It is a balancing issue. China needs to ensure India does not have delusions build up enough to begin action to take advantage of any moment they interpret as China being distracted enough for them to patrol into China's side of disputed territories again.

Taiwan ending the status quo means war. It's never been anything other than that. It's something that even the US has respected to not tread over. Any situation where Taiwan ends the status quo means the mainland has lost its ability to effectively bring about armed reunification. Armed reunification is a situation both RoC and PRC want to avoid. Any major high intensity conflict with India will serve to reinforce Taiwan's wariness of changing the status quo. They will not be inclined to think in terms of opportunity like the Indians in that moment. After all, high intensity war with India has many off ramps for both sides. Once armed reunification is set off, there is no turning back. If there were ways to finesse this, Taiwan and the US would have changed the status quo unilaterally.

On the off topic of the Taiwan issue. This is also presented to the West as the chief source of conflict with China. It is to China's advantage to avoid wars and resolving the Taiwan issue should in theory give the western world less reason to oppose China. If it is resolved peacefully of course. Hypothetically if PRC were to support ROC independence, in theory, the western world should then look more favourably upon PRC. In reality, they will never so long as PRC represents a threat to western hegemony and not aligned with their hierarchy and rules of power.

Giving Taiwan up is out of the question for the PRC. Therefore the only path forward is to progress and reform your government, people and country for the better until the time when Taiwan willingly reunifies or failing Taiwanese willingness, be so far ahead of everyone else there is no threat of war.
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is a balancing issue. China needs to ensure India does not have delusions build up enough to begin action to take advantage of any moment they interpret as China being distracted enough for them to patrol into China's side of disputed territories again.

Taiwan ending the status quo means war. It's never been anything other than that. It's something that even the US has respected to not tread over. Any situation where Taiwan ends the status quo means the mainland has lost its ability to effectively bring about armed reunification. Armed reunification is a situation both RoC and PRC want to avoid. Any major high intensity conflict with India will serve to reinforce Taiwan's wariness of changing the status quo. They will not be inclined to think in terms of opportunity like the Indians in that moment. After all, high intensity war with India has many off ramps for both sides. Once armed reunification is set off, there is no turning back. If there were ways to finesse this, Taiwan and the US would have changed the status quo unilaterally.

On the off topic of the Taiwan issue. This is also presented to the West as the chief source of conflict with China. It is to China's advantage to avoid wars and resolving the Taiwan issue should in theory give the western world less reason to oppose China. If it is resolved peacefully of course. Hypothetically if PRC were to support ROC independence, in theory, the western world should then look more favourably upon PRC. In reality, they will never so long as PRC represents a threat to western hegemony and not aligned with their hierarchy and rules of power.

Giving Taiwan up is out of the question for the PRC. Therefore the only path forward is to progress and reform your government, people and country for the better until the time when Taiwan willingly reunifies or failing Taiwanese willingness, be so far ahead of everyone else there is no threat of war.
Taiwan is not the reason for West opposing China. It's simply the balance of power. If Taiwan issue is magically resolved today, they'll find another reason. They oppose China because China's become too strong and think's independantly and wont give up it's economic interests like Japan, EU etc.

Taiwan is an excuse and a tool, just like how Ukraine is a tool to erode Russian economy and power.

Anyway, this is all big boys global meta talk and frankly, completely out of topic in Indian-defense thread. India's geopolitical relevance is in it's potential to be a good puppy to US. It's a ~potential piece on the board, not the player.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
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It would be hilarious if the Indians chose the Su-57 after rejecting it during development because they thought too highly of themselves. I also think many Indians realise that being overly dependent on the West isn't a good strategy, and some diversification is in order.

However, there is no replacement for having your own jet fleet if you are as big as India. But now the IAF is in its biggest crisis for a generation and it seems like India will continue having to import.

There is still a great deal of delusion in India regarding "ToT". No nation is going to give away its secrets and there are no shortcuts to making your own stuff. The single best deal in recent history was probably China's help to Pakistan with the JF-17. But from what I understand, that was a one-off and I doubt China would do something like that again.

And I doubt Russia would give away any meaningful technology to India. Why would they? Even China's deal with the flankers was probably a one-off made possible by Russia's extreme problems in the 1990s. I can't imagine Russia being that generous again, especially given India's recent cold-shouldered treatment towards Russia.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
India will try to purchase either FCAS or Tempest-GGAP.

Su-57 will be a risky purchase for India because honestly while it is one hell of a good performer, it probably won't stand up to the next generation fighters or existing 5th gen fighters in areas of sensors, sensor fusion, data management and electronic warfare.

China would also be able to easily buy Su-57 information off Russia in case of war with India or even in preparation for worst outcomes. This allows China to more easily defeat Indian Su-57. If India places a large order, China could make a small batch order from Sukhoi just to test it out and have it perform patrol duties similar to how it is using Su-35 - gain intelligence on the aircraft and learn how to defeat it quickly while simultaneously have 24 units operating as forward patrol units which allow Chinese mainstay fighters avoid tasks where greater depth of tactical information may present as opsec leak.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
India will try to purchase either FCAS or Tempest-GGAP.

Su-57 will be a risky purchase for India because honestly while it is one hell of a good performer, it probably won't stand up to the next generation fighters or existing 5th gen fighters in areas of sensors, sensor fusion, data management and electronic warfare.

China would also be able to easily buy Su-57 information off Russia in case of war with India or even in preparation for worst outcomes. This allows China to more easily defeat Indian Su-57. If India places a large order, China could make a small batch order from Sukhoi just to test it out and have it perform patrol duties similar to how it is using Su-35 - gain intelligence on the aircraft and learn how to defeat it quickly while simultaneously have 24 units operating as forward patrol units which allow Chinese mainstay fighters avoid tasks where greater depth of tactical information may present as opsec leak.
India is honestly not going to be able to muster the forces/power to head to war with China. China already raked them hard diplomatically, in Bangladesh, in the Indian ocean islands, with Adani, and the border settlement.

That Su-57 is going to India is meant as an olive branch from China's side back to India. It is not planned that India can use them in a potential war, if India starts being aggressive, China will just apply a new economic/political/covert pressure on India to make the peacetime preparations unbearable for them.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
A Coast Guard helicopter crashed in Gujarat India. Three fatalities. The helicopter was an Advanced Light Helicopter.

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ALH/Dhruv is a death trap.

It would be hilarious if the Indians chose the Su-57 after rejecting it during development because they thought too highly of themselves. I also think many Indians realise that being overly dependent on the West isn't a good strategy, and some diversification is in order.

However, there is no replacement for having your own jet fleet if you are as big as India. But now the IAF is in its biggest crisis for a generation and it seems like India will continue having to import.

There is still a great deal of delusion in India regarding "ToT". No nation is going to give away its secrets and there are no shortcuts to making your own stuff. The single best deal in recent history was probably China's help to Pakistan with the JF-17. But from what I understand, that was a one-off and I doubt China would do something like that again.

And I doubt Russia would give away any meaningful technology to India. Why would they? Even China's deal with the flankers was probably a one-off made possible by Russia's extreme problems in the 1990s. I can't imagine Russia being that generous again, especially given India's recent cold-shouldered treatment towards Russia.

The delusion in India regarding Technology Transfer is that they have an expectation that once they get blueprints/technical assistance, they will automatically become experts and basically make any aircraft or aircraft engine they want. It is the similar to the delusion that Americans have towards China, that everything is copied/reverse engineered just because they bought something or hacked some computers.

Didn't India have a more generous deal with Su-30MKI vs. China's Flankers? China never had any technical assistance with the Al-31, but India had parts production set up. Russia did not expect China to produce Flankers domestically as soon as they did. The fact that China could master the production of the Flanker and perform subsequent upgrades/modifications (including variants that have no Russian counterparts) shows a clear leap in technical and industrial capabilities relative to India which decades later can still only produce "about half" of the parts of the Su-30MKI domestically.

I have no insider knowlege, but logically the Chinese enterprises are simply better organized and thus able to actually absorb the fundamentals of aircraft design and manufacture. With the opening up and declassification of past history, we see that China had attempted many aircraft designs that failed in various stages due to industrial immaturity, the cancellation of these projects allowed resources to be reallocated more efficiently. Meanwhile, Tejas and Kaveri have been plodding along for 40 years. They are blaming GE for non-delivery of engines, but the deal was only signed in 2021 for the engines! This is for a plane that supposedly has operational clearance in 2011.

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