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GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
"India Buying Additional Dozen Su-30MKIs"

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They have over 270 of the MKI which is basically a 20-year-old aircraft with practically no change to avionics or weapons and definitively none for the engine.

This most numerous aircraft of the IAF played second fiddle to the MiG-21 in interception of the JF-17s and F-16s during the Balakot retaliation raid. Again, retaliation in that India struck first and should have been expecting a strike from the PAF.

A dozen more won't do much.
 

Lethe

Captain
"India Buying Additional Dozen Su-30MKIs"

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...

They have over 270 of the MKI which is basically a 20-year-old aircraft with practically no change to avionics or weapons and definitively none for the engine.

This most numerous aircraft of the IAF played second fiddle to the MiG-21 in interception of the JF-17s and F-16s during the Balakot retaliation raid. Again, retaliation in that India struck first and should have been expecting a strike from the PAF.

A dozen more won't do much.

I think this is the same contract that has been kicking around for >5 years now to replace airframes lost to date through accidents. This is a perfectly reasonable course of action but the timing, as usual, is completely fucked. Here is Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria discussing it
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Bhadauria also confirmed reports that additional Sukhoi-30MKI fighters would be built by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) in Nashik. HAL will soon complete delivery of the last squadron of Sukhoi-30MKIs, bringing up the IAF fleet to 13 squadrons.

“We are moving towards ordering 12 more Sukhoi-30s. Whether we need some more in lieu of aircraft that are going to get phased out from 2025 onwards… we will have to take a look later. But at the moment, 12 is what is being followed up straightaway,” said Bhadauria.

In a sensible world this order would've been finalised by ~2018 (not end 2024!) to directly follow on from the main production contract that wound up circa 2020, maximising efficiency by avoiding disruption to assembly line, component suppliers, etc. The "Super-30" upgrade program would be timed to follow directly on from that, involving most of the same facilities and suppliers. Instead, the considerable domestic infrastructure developed to manufacture and support Su-30MKI has been allowed to lie fallow for a number of years now while inventory pressures become ever more acute. Additional Su-30MKIs are not a panacea in terms of either technology or self-reliance, but it was a mature production line available while all the pie-in-the-sky alternative and notional successor programs remained (and remain!) just that. The idiom that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush should perhaps be revised in the Indian context to say that a bird in the hand is worth five in the bush. The operative word here is mismanagement.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I was wondering, what I would do if I were in charge of India, seeing the vast lead that China holds today. Modi needs to put on a Sun Yatsen suit, so to speak. He needs to be sending as many Indian officials as China gives visas for to study in China, at Indian expense. Chinese companies should be hired to do everything that Indian companies cannot. Chinese officials should be hired to be put in charge of Indian industries and agencies like customs, aerospace, even government ministries to modernize them rapidly.

The gap between China and India today isn't like Cold War era China and US, which was merely a matter of degree. It is kind of more like the difference between Qing Dynasty/British Empire and Native Americans/Europeans. The difference is a matter of kind. China's lead over India in informatization, industrialization, governance and social structure is like the invention of fire, metallurgy or industry, it is a phase shift. They must recognize this and learn like the Qing, ROC and early PRC did, painstakingly and humbly, or they could suffer the fate of the Qing. It is to their supreme fortune that Chinese are the most peace loving people in the world.

Early on, it is not obvious why one system is so superior. Qing had cannons, British had cannons, why did Qing lose 10000:100 against the British? Because industrialization allowed Britain to have 10000 cannons against 100 Qing cannons, steam power allowed Britain to sail against the wind and currents, mass production allowed British to all have bread, coats and shoes while Qing banners often went barefoot and hungry. Same for Native Americans against Spanish. In 1500, Spain only had medieval tech with primitive hand cannons but mostly, just swords and spears. How did they beat the Natives who also had swords and spears? Because they had 1000+ years of medieval innovation in ferrous metallurgy, armor, cavalry, logistics, strategy, navy, etc that the Natives, who were only bronze age equivalent, didn't have.

That is why it is frustrating to look at India - they are making the same mistakes we made 150 years ago. They need to understand that they need to modernize their entire way of thinking. Qing failed to do so, collapsed, and China suffered 100 years of humiliation. I am hoping that India chooses not to suffer 100 years of humiliation like we did.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Indians understand all that, and to a degree possible, they do(say, Indian/Pakistani students are quite present in China).

India is just no China, it didn't have first emperor of Qin 2200 years ago.

You can't do China(or east Asia) things there, people try - they don't work. Not like they didn't try to do specifically that(South Indian Chola went specifically for China as an inspiration). Just didn't work, turned into parody.

For better or worse, they have to carefully , very carefully search for their own path, how to make this cultural, ethnical and religious patchwork get to prosperity.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Indians understand all that, and to a degree possible, they do(say, Indian/Pakistani students are quite present in China).

India is just no China, it didn't have first emperor of Qin 2200 years ago.

You can't do China(or east Asia) things there, people try - they don't work. Not like they didn't try to do specifically that(South Indian Chola went specifically for China as an inspiration). Just didn't work, turned into parody.

For better or worse, they have to carefully , very carefully search for their own path, how to make this cultural, ethnical and religious patchwork get to prosperity.
Unfortunately history is ruthless. Rome disappeared forever. Indians still don't understand at a very deep level. When reading their comments and seeing their government's behavior, they aren't really taking it seriously, not even as seriously as Qing did.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Unfortunately history is ruthless. Rome disappeared forever. Indians still don't understand at a very deep level. When reading their comments and seeing their government's behavior, they aren't really taking it seriously, not even as seriously as Qing did.
Rome did, but India is more akin to forcibly unified Europe, not Rome. And while Rome is long gone, Indiavas a cultural entity is still more or less with us, despite being about as old.

If taking seriously means drastic solutions, they can't. Only extremely authoritarian (in this context it means capable) leaders can sway such countries... provided anyone can at all, as unifying India into something unitary has never happened - it's that hard.
And such leaders don't get born during Peace.

There's no way to Qin India; careful treading, manoeuvering and placating interests is the only safe way.
 
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