Indian Economics thread.

[siegecrossbow]

You can't separate Chinese trade.

Chinese flagged or owned container ships contain cargoes from every country.

Suppose you reflag ships or change ownership of the ships. Or lease ships. Neutral ships can change their cargo destinations after they pass the straits.

Look at the impact of the Ever Given blockage in the Suez Canal. Global cargo and oil prices jumped. Shortages of goods worsened everywhere

Indians can just intercept the Chinese ships first, sort the cargo, and then send the ship on its way with foreign cargo only. Given their efficiency it may take the better part of a decade just to sort one ship.

 

[Gatekeeper]

You can't separate Chinese trade.

Chinese flagged or owned container ships contain cargoes from every country.

Suppose you reflag ships or change ownership of the ships. Or lease ships. Neutral ships can change their cargo destinations after they pass the straits.

Look at the impact of the Ever Given blockage in the Suez Canal. Global cargo and oil prices jumped. Shortages of goods worsened everywhere

Please don't help him out, when I proposed the question below. It spoils all the fun. Lol

What a loads of drivel. Tell us oh wise one, how is mighty India is going to enforced a partial blockade from the Andamans island. This will be interesting.

Indians can just intercept the Chinese ships first, sort the cargo, and then send the ship on its way with foreign cargo only. Given their efficiency it may take the better part of a decade just to sort one ship.

Could you imagine that! India effiency at work. It just not the cargo. Within the container themselves, they are multitude of goods from a multiple of countries, particularly from Europe. Can you imagine super power India impound goods from Europe to China? Can't bear thinking about.

Jai Hind mentality is super imaginative. If only they can harness their imaginative energy and put it in good use, China and the West will truly be scared.

 

[Gloire_bb]

You can't separate Chinese trade.

Chinese flagged or owned container ships contain cargoes from every country.

This is a normal process(1899 Hague). Strictly speaking, even undeclared cargo from one of the belligerents (on an otherwise neutral vessel) can be declared to be contraband and lead to seizure of the vessel. Important to note, that seizure =/= capture, it may or may not lead to permanent consequences, but the ship will be stuck for quite a while - generating lots of undesirable consequences for the shipping company(and its insurers).

While it's definitely very harmful to bilateral relations b/n country of flag(or ownership) and seized - it's worth noting, that simple threat of such act kills civilian maritime traffic momentarily. Insurance rates skyrocket, captains and shipping companies avoid risks, whole JIT economy goes to the underworld.

Yes, of course, countries can be persuaded to stop such activities even when they're legal. But precisely because we're talking China v, I honestly wouldn't hope international opinion will help.

And here we come to the "peaceful power simply caring about its citizens" thing back. It's very hard to be one.
Being a superpower when you're a huge power hostile to the hegemonic one (combining comprehensive state might with intent to use this might to shape the world) is not a wish. It's a necessity.

Look at the impact of the Ever Given blockage in the Suez Canal. Global cargo and oil prices jumped. Shortages of goods worsened everywhere

Yes, a good example of the potential scale of harm.
Especially since Indian subcontinent sits over an even larger traffic volume than the Suez (Cape ships also pass there).

 

[Gatekeeper]

This is a normal process(1899 Hague). Strictly speaking, even undeclared cargo from one of the belligerents (on an otherwise neutral vessel) can be declared to be contraband and lead to seizure of the vessel. Important to note, that seizure =/= capture, it may or may not lead to permanent consequences, but the ship will be stuck for quite a while - generating lots of undesirable consequences for the shipping company(and its insurers).

While it's definitely very harmful to bilateral relations b/n country of flag(or ownership) and seized - it's worth noting, that simple threat of such act kills civilian maritime traffic momentarily. Insurance rates skyrocket, captains and shipping companies avoid risks, whole JIT economy goes to the underworld.

Yes, of course, countries can be persuaded to stop such activities even when they're legal. But precisely because we're talking China v, I honestly wouldn't hope international opinion will help.

And here we come to the "peaceful power simply caring about its citizens" thing back. It's very hard to be one.
Being a superpower when you're a huge power hostile to the hegemonic one (combining comprehensive state might with intent to use this might to shape the world) is not a wish. It's a necessity.

Yes, a good example of the potential scale of harm.
Especially since Indian subcontinent sits over an even larger traffic volume than the Suez (Cape ships also pass there).

You still have no idea. Have you? So to enforced your blockade from the Andamans island. You are going to use the threat of force to every ship that passes the Indian ocean. In doing so, you think no actual force is necessary as ALL nations will comply with Indian request because India is a superpower!

So ALL nations (not just China) see their commerce and trade damaged by India, but no, they are not going to do anything about it because India is superpower. Right. Dream on.

And further, you do know how big India ocean is? How many war ships does your super power have available to chase down ALL these ships?

You talk about insurance is going to the enforcement for you. In times of tension, do you think China is going to quitely stand down? Don't you think they will instruct the Chinese insurance company to take up the slack?

And finally, do you think China's navy is going to stand and watch your mighty India run amok in the Indian ocean? You really need to put your thinking cap on. It's not hard!

 

[AndrewS]

This is a normal process(1899 Hague). Strictly speaking, even undeclared cargo from one of the belligerents (on an otherwise neutral vessel) can be declared to be contraband and lead to seizure of the vessel. Important to note, that seizure =/= capture, it may or may not lead to permanent consequences, but the ship will be stuck for quite a while - generating lots of undesirable consequences for the shipping company(and its insurers).

While it's definitely very harmful to bilateral relations b/n country of flag(or ownership) and seized - it's worth noting, that simple threat of such act kills civilian maritime traffic momentarily. Insurance rates skyrocket, captains and shipping companies avoid risks, whole JIT economy goes to the underworld.

Yes, of course, countries can be persuaded to stop such activities even when they're legal. But precisely because we're talking China v, I honestly wouldn't hope international opinion will help.

And here we come to the "peaceful power simply caring about its citizens" thing back. It's very hard to be one.
Being a superpower when you're a huge power hostile to the hegemonic one (combining comprehensive state might with intent to use this might to shape the world) is not a wish. It's a necessity.

Yes, a good example of the potential scale of harm.
Especially since Indian subcontinent sits over an even larger traffic volume than the Suez (Cape ships also pass there).

I just don't see India being able to stop the Chinese military.

China does have a number of long-range missiles which can reach the Andaman Islands.
When combined with the Chinese bomber fleet, surface fleet, submarines and aircraft carriers - there should be more than enough force to subdue and take the Andaman Islands away from India.

I also see China escalating over Kashmir and NE India.
And China can obtain air superiority over these areas.
That would be enough for the local independence movements to erupt and throw out the occupying Indian military.

Whilst the Western Pacific is the main focus of the Chinese military, the Indian Air Force only has 500-odd fighter jets.
Given a Chinese fighter jet fleet of approximately 2000 jets, I reckon China could afford to divert a quarter of them (500 jets) to decimate the Indian Air Force. In addition, you could operate half of the H-6 bomber fleet (100 aircraft) from their peacetime bases in China and use them against India. That would be in conjunction with some Chinese missile forces used against Indian airbases.

An Indian attempt to blockade (which is an act of war) on the Malacca Straits looks really silly if China has air superiority over the cities of Northern India.

 

[Sardaukar20]

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

'Partial Blockade'. Ooohh... Genius! Jai Hind!

Let's say that we have an Italian-flagged vessel carrying goods to China, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. How is India going to enforce this 'partial blockade'?

India must stop that ship to confiscate the Chinese shipment. That means this ship and many others like it will be stuck in a shipping traffic jam. This will also be an Indian act of interdiction on Italian shipping. Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan will also suffer massive import delays.

Not to mention. Once the Chinese military comes into the Malacca Straits, it will turn it into an active conflict zone. The MS will be fully closed to all civilian shipping. Your so-called 'partial blockaged' will turn into a complete blockade! Duh!

So how will India justify all that BS to the world? To showcase the power of Superpowah India? Blame China for becoming the next victim of Superpowah India? But India is the aggressor who blocked the MS, not China! China wanted it opened, like everyone else. Indian international standing will be FUBARed. No trading nation is gonna stand for India unilaterally inflicting economic disaster onto the world. Jai Hind?

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

"Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends."

But these countries RELY on or with China for their trade and economic activity i.e. Prosperity. Last I checked, no country can make any military moves while failing to neglect or incorporate economic fall out from such actions and expect any success or suffer from it's consequences. Which is why China has not retake Taiwan; has not taken an even more assertive stance against U.S. constant incursion into the SCS and it's machinations of China's number 1 trading partner in the region which are the ASEAN countries.

 

[Gatekeeper]

'Partial Blockade'. Ooohh... Genius! Jai Hind!

Let's say that we have an Italian-flagged vessel carrying goods to China, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. How is India going to enforce this 'partial blockade'?

India must stop that ship to confiscate the Chinese shipment. That means this ship and many others like it will be stuck in a shipping traffic jam. This will also be an Indian act of interdiction on Italian shipping. Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan will also suffer massive import delays.

Not to mention. Once the Chinese military comes into the Malacca Straits, it will turn it into an active conflict zone. The MS will be fully closed to all civilian shipping. Your so-called 'partial blockaged' will turn into a complete blockade of the MS. Duh!

So how will India justify all that BS to the world? To showcase the power of Jai Hind Superpowah India? Blame China for becoming the next victim of Superpowah India? But India is the aggressor who blocked the MS, not China! China wants it opened, like everyone else. Again Indian international standing will be FUBARed. No trading nation is gonna stand for India unilaterally inflicting economic disaster onto the world. Jai Hind?

He's a stable genus. But some how I think we are debating with a fanatical Jai Hind or a teenager. Either way he's a stable genus.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

This is a normal process(1899 Hague). Strictly speaking, even undeclared cargo from one of the belligerents (on an otherwise neutral vessel) can be declared to be contraband and lead to seizure of the vessel. Important to note, that seizure =/= capture, it may or may not lead to permanent consequences, but the ship will be stuck for quite a while - generating lots of undesirable consequences for the shipping company(and its insurers).

While it's definitely very harmful to bilateral relations b/n country of flag(or ownership) and seized - it's worth noting, that simple threat of such act kills civilian maritime traffic momentarily. Insurance rates skyrocket, captains and shipping companies avoid risks, whole JIT economy goes to the underworld.

Yes, of course, countries can be persuaded to stop such activities even when they're legal. But precisely because we're talking China v, I honestly wouldn't hope international opinion will help.

And here we come to the "peaceful power simply caring about its citizens" thing back. It's very hard to be one.
Being a superpower when you're a huge power hostile to the hegemonic one (combining comprehensive state might with intent to use this might to shape the world) is not a wish. It's a necessity.

Yes, a good example of the potential scale of harm.
Especially since Indian subcontinent sits over an even larger traffic volume than the Suez (Cape ships also pass there).

"This is a normal process(1899 Hague)" A treaty that has been violated many times in the past and will be so again if the geniuses in India will take such monumentally stupid action. That dumb ass treaty can't supercede or supplant the needs and the sovereign needs of a country affected not least of all China which is not just an ordinary country or a small time player in the global market.

No sane strategists will ever push for such a suicidal plan, a plan that's for sure to guarantee the collapse of your government and the decimation of your country's military/navy.

 

[AndrewS]

I just don't see India being able to stop the Chinese military.

China does have a number of long-range missiles which can reach the Andaman Islands.
When combined with the Chinese bomber fleet, surface fleet, submarines and aircraft carriers - there should be more than enough force to subdue and take the Andaman Islands away from India.

I also see China escalating over Kashmir and NE India.
And China can obtain air superiority over these areas.
That would be enough for the local independence movements to erupt and throw out the occupying Indian military.

Whilst the Western Pacific is the main focus of the Chinese military, the Indian Air Force only has 500-odd fighter jets.
Given a Chinese fighter jet fleet of approximately 2000 jets, I reckon China could afford to divert a quarter of them (500 jets) to decimate the Indian Air Force. In addition, you could operate half of the H-6 bomber fleet (100 aircraft) from their peacetime bases in China and use them against India. That would be in conjunction with some Chinese missile forces used against Indian airbases.

An Indian attempt to blockade (which is an act of war) on the Malacca Straits looks really silly if China has air superiority over the cities of Northern India.

@Gloire_bb

Let's see what an Indian Navy blockade would look like

The key elements in the Indian Navy are:

1x Aircraft Carrier
9x Destroyers
13x Frigates
24x Corvettes
17x Conventional Submarines

If I were a Chinese Navy commander, I would only send secondary (unneeded) forces or forces which can be rapidly redeployed back to the Western Pacific. I'd categorise these as

2 of 2 Aircraft Carriers
15 of 50? Destroyers
15 of 50? Frigates
72 of 72 Corvettes
50 of 50? Conventional Submarines
10 of 10? Nuclear Attack Submarines

The Chinese fleet of 60 submarines alone would decimate the Indian Navy and Indian port traffic.

Plus this Chinese surface fleet has at least twice the combat power of the entire intact Indian Navy.