Indian Economics thread.

[Sardaukar20]

Our friend, @Gloire_bb can come up with 101 reasons why India can pull off a blockade of the Malacca Straits from China. The Jai Hinds can wet dream all they like about this as India's so-called 'trump card' vs China.

But the fact is that if India really does pull of a blockade of the Malacca Straits. Its not just China that will suffer. China is the largest trading nation in the world. Everyone will suffer. It'll turn international trade upside down. When everybody's economy is getting choked, what are they gonna think about India? Hmm...

India is the one that is closing down the MS. And China would be the one trying to reopen the MS. So naturally China will be getting greater support, regardless of political stances. Because at the end of the day its money, not political values that matter. Just take Ford's exit from India as an indication.

India blocking the MS is not the same as the US blockading Imperial Japan in WW2. Its actually much more similar to Nazi Germany U-boat attacks on Atlantic shipping. Safe to say its just not going to be winning India new friends.

The Jai Hinds are coming up with 1001 fantasies about dragging China's economy down for India's to rise. One of them is this stupid idea of blockading the MS. They are extremely butthurt that the gap between India and China is not closing, but actually widening. 'Democracy vs Communism' had failed. 'Make in India' had failed. 'China Virus' had failed. 'Boycott China' had failed. "Indian vaccines to save the world" had failed. Quad is showing signs of just being a hollow alliance. The Jai Hinds have been boasting about India overtaking China's economy by 20XX. Not even remotely close as of 2021! So what now? India to resort to war with China to drag its economy down? Not even the US had dared to to that. Jai Hind!

 

[Gatekeeper]

Our friend, @Gloire_bb can come up with 101 reasons why India can pull off a blockade of the Malacca Straits from China. The Jai Hinds can wet dream all they like about this as India's so-called 'trump card' vs China.

But the fact is that if India really does pull of a blockade of the Malacca Straits. Its not just China that will suffer. China is the largest trading nation in the world. Everyone will suffer. It'll turn international trade upside down. When everybody's economy is getting choked, what are they gonna think about India? Hmm...

India is the one that is closing down the MS. And China would be the one trying to reopen the MS. So naturally China will be getting greater support, regardless of political stances. Because at the end of the day its money, not political values that matter. Just take Ford's exit from India as an indication.

India blocking the MS is not the same as the US blockading Imperial Japan in WW2. Its actually much more similar to Nazi Germany U-boat attacks on Atlantic shipping. Safe to say its just not going to be winning India new friends.

The Jai Hinds are coming up with 1001 fantasies about dragging China's economy down for India's to rise. One of them is this stupid idea of blockading the MS. They are extremely butthurt that the gap between India and China is not closing, but actually widening. 'Democracy vs Communism' had failed. 'Make in India' had failed. 'China Virus' had failed. 'Boycott China' had failed. "Indian vaccines to save the world" had failed. Quad is showing signs of just being a hollow alliance. The Jai Hinds have been boasting about India overtaking China's economy by 20XX. Not even remotely close as of 2021! So what now? India to resort to war with China to drag its economy down? Not even the US had dared to to that. Jai Hind!

It's so ironic our friend here it's so Jai Hind that he believe India's two "super carriers" is worth every penny at the expense of his fellow Jai Hinds education and welfare

He just cannot see how wrong this is in ANY civilised country. Yet he's got the cheek to call us angry "Hongweibing" little red guards. Yep Jai Hind

 

[AndrewS]

Our friend, @Gloire_bb can come up with 101 reasons why India can pull off a blockade of the Malacca Straits from China. The Jai Hinds can wet dream all they like about this as India's so-called 'trump card' vs China.

But the fact is that if India really does pull of a blockade of the Malacca Straits. Its not just China that will suffer. China is the largest trading nation in the world. Everyone will suffer. It'll turn international trade upside down. When everybody's economy is getting choked, what are they gonna think about India? Hmm...

India is the one that is closing down the MS. And China would be the one trying to reopen the MS. So naturally China will be getting greater support, regardless of political stances. Because at the end of the day its money, not political values that matter. Just take Ford's exit from India as an indication.

India blocking the MS is not the same as the US blockading Imperial Japan in WW2. Its actually much more similar to Nazi Germany U-boat attacks on Atlantic shipping. Safe to say its just not going to be winning India new friends.

The Jai Hinds are coming up with 1001 fantasies about dragging China's economy down for India's to rise. One of them is this stupid idea of blockading the MS. They are extremely butthurt that the gap between India and China is not closing, but actually widening. 'Democracy vs Communism' had failed. 'Make in India' had failed. 'China Virus' had failed. 'Boycott China' had failed. "Indian vaccines to save the world" had failed. Quad is showing signs of just being a hollow alliance. The Jai Hinds have been boasting about India overtaking China's economy by 20XX. Not even remotely close as of 2021! So what now? India to resort to war with China to drag its economy down? Not even the US had dared to to that. Jai Hind!

@Gloire_bb

Singapore views free trade along the Malacca Straits as a matter of national survival.
That is because Singapore is a small and densely populated island city-state with no natural resources.

If India tries to blockade the Malacca Straits, Singapore will most definitely join China in reopening the Straits.

Malaysia and Indonesia face a similar calculation, although a Malacca Straits blockade is less critical to them.
But at a minimum, Malaysia and Indonesia will be supportive of Chinese efforts to reopen trade.

That also applies to Myanmar and Thailand, who will be less than pleased with India trying to blockade the Malacca Straits and Andaman Sea. Ditto for many other countries in the world.

As for China, China is the world's largest trading nation and relies on the oceans for critical imports and for its export machine.
As such, China is the biggest beneficiary of seaborne trade, and always wants cargo ships to continue sailing, no matter what happens.

 

[Gatekeeper]

@Gloire_bb

Singapore views free trade along the Malacca Straits as a matter of national survival.
That is because Singapore is a small and densely populated island city-state with no natural resources.

If India tries to blockade the Malacca Straits, Singapore will most definitely join China in reopening the Straits.

Malaysia and Indonesia face a similar calculation, although a Malacca Straits blockade is less critical to them.
But at a minimum, Malaysia and Indonesia will be supportive of Chinese efforts to reopen trade.

That also applies to Myanmar and Thailand, who will be less than pleased with India trying to blockade the Malacca Straits and Andaman Sea. Ditto for many other countries in the world.

As for China, China is the world's largest trading nation and relies on the oceans for critical imports and for its export machine.
As such, China is the biggest beneficiary of seaborne trade, and always wants cargo ships to continue sailing, no matter what happens.

@Sardaukar20

Really guys.

As @plawolf has said many times. This isn't the 1940s. Majority of trade are ferry by different flag carriers companies. What is India going to do. Stop every ship and check it's inventories?

Or what about other nations going around Malacca instead? There are plenty of viable routes.

And what about the PLAN? Are there going to stand idlely by whilst mighty Indians stop and search every ship?

This blockade of Malacca is really a pipe dream of the Jai Hind crowd which our friend is one of. And for Indians to tell the populace the reason they have to spend money on their mighty fleet of "super" carriers whilst they go Hungary and uneducated is because of China. Pure and simple.

 

[ougoah]

Well the value of India pretending blocking MS is an option to them is really just to serve a stupid political Modi is big man narrative.

The reality is they know they have no hope of blocking MS. The point of that feel good message to bhakts is that they are strong and have options. As long as they don't try to turn wetdreams into reality, they won't feel the full force smashing them down as soon as they try. It's safe for them to dwell in the delusions and never check with reality.

 

[plawolf]

@Sardaukar20

Really guys.

As @plawolf has said many times. This isn't the 1940s. Majority of trade are ferry by different flag carriers companies. What is India going to do. Stop every ship and check it's inventories?

Or what about other nations going around Malacca instead? There are plenty of viable routes.

And what about the PLAN? Are there going to stand idlely by whilst mighty Indians stop and search every ship?

This blockade of Malacca is really a pipe dream of the Jai Hind crowd which our friend is one of. And for Indians to tell the populace the reason they have to spend money on their mighty fleet of "super" carriers whilst they go Hungary and uneducated is because of China. Pure and simple.

If the Indians were moronic enough to try, the USN would have sunk their entire fleet before the PLAN could get there to do it themselves. And that’s not hyperbole. If the US couldn’t strongarm the Indians diplomatically to stop behind the scenes, that’s what they will do need to do to prevent China from gaining a strategically dominating position.

You need to remember western projection when it comes to China. Often their assessments and expectations are more based on what they would do in that situation than what China might do. In which case their expectations would be that not only would China curbstomp the Indian navy, it would also use the war as a pretext to seize and annex the Andaman Islands. That would give China a dominant position in the region when you take into account its SCS holdings, and that is something the US would gladly slaughter millions of Indians to prevent.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

You need to remember western projection when it comes to China. Often their assessments and expectations are more based on what they would do in that situation than what China might do. In which case their expectations would be that not only would China curbstomp the Indian navy, it would also use the war as a pretext to seize and annex the Andaman Islands.

That's not projection, that's exactly what China would do. That's what anyone rational would do.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Singapore views free trade along the Malacca Straits as a matter of national survival.(...)

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

 

[Gatekeeper]

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

What a loads of drivel. Tell us oh wise one, how is mighty India is going to enforced a partial blockade from the Andamans island. This will be interesting.

 

[AndrewS]

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

You can't separate Chinese trade.

Chinese flagged or owned container ships contain cargoes from every country.

Suppose you reflag ships or change ownership of the ships. Or lease ships. Neutral ships can change their cargo destinations after they pass the straits.

Look at the impact of the Ever Given blockage in the Suez Canal. Global cargo and oil prices jumped. Shortages of goods worsened everywhere