Indian Economics thread.

[Gloire_bb]

I just don't see India being able to stop the Chinese military.

China does have a number of long-range missiles which can reach the Andaman Islands.
When combined with the Chinese bomber fleet, surface fleet, submarines and aircraft carriers - there should be enough force to subdue and take the Andaman Islands away from India.

This is an interesting part. Depends on the year.
For example, Imho - Indians have what it takes to contest full scale Chinese incursion in the Indian ocean - i.e. they have sufficient fighting chances(2021). And will continue to maintain this capability in the coming decade(2025 - 2030). Furthermore, right now China has significant problems with actually taking islands ensuring Indian coverage over Indian ocean - necessary amphibious capability isn't there yet.
Is it important? Yes, because IN has the option to reasonably safely retreat, and properly fortified and manned islands are likely to hold.

But.

Chinese ability to operate efficiently "behind the corner" (both in the strait and especially beyond the island chain) will grow dramatically by 2025 - both all-round (003 and 002(!) will represent qualitative leaps forward, but for different reasons) and especially in amphibious assault(expect AAGs to be up and running by then), thus raising the stakes substantially - retreat means a risk of permanent (soldier's boot as opposed to just fires) neutralization or even loss of the islands.

Changes later down the line are harder to quantify, especially things like the expected appearance of PLAAF stealth bombers and the new generation of nuclear attack submarines(both are qualitative changes to Indian ocean theatre). There are factors that are even harder to quantify (development of space assets), as there is simply no information about the future.

Whilst the Western Pacific is the main focus of the Chinese military, the Indian Air Force only has 500-odd fighter jets.
Given a Chinese fighter jet fleet of approximately 2000 jets, I reckon China could afford to divert a quarter of them (500 jets) to decimate the Indian Air Force. In addition, you could operate half of the H-6 bomber fleet (100 aircraft) from their peacetime bases and use them against India. That would be in conjunction with some Chinese missile forces used against Indian airbases.

Personally, I don't see transformation of air battle into something decisive. The losing side will quickly go defensive, and given the nature of the theater(ranges, altitudes) and combatants(IAF is big enough to last for quite a while, PLAAF is as good as endless), it pretty much equals to the ability to drag things for very long. Yes, the prevailing side will have more freedom for conducting strikes, but neither country is likely to crumble from that.

I also see China escalating over Kashmir and NE India.
And China can obtain air superiority over these areas.
That would be enough for the local independence movements to erupt and throw out the occupying Indian military.

While the Indian army doesn't look like an overly modern fighting force (it's chronically underfunded) - simple numbers(IA may look shabby, but it's huge) and the nature of the theater (roof of the world) are likely to prevent decisive results there.

This is why I focus on the naval side of things. Air-sea warfare simply appears to matter the most for this conflict.

"This is a normal process(1899 Hague)" A treaty that has been violated many times in the past and will be so again if the geniuses in India will take such monumentally stupid action. That dumb ass treaty can't supercede or supplant the needs and the sovereign needs of a country affected not least of all China which is not just an ordinary country or a small time player in the global market.

In this case, we're talking about Indians following it(or not following).
Unless hot heads prevail for some reason, I literally see no reason for the Indian side not to adhere to the established procedure at sea. They simply lose far, far more from not doing it, and surface interdiction play well into this.

 

[AndrewS]

This is an interesting part. Depends on the year.
For example, Imho - Indians have what it takes to contest full scale Chinese incursion in the Indian ocean - i.e. they have sufficient fighting chances(2021). And will continue to maintain this capability in the coming decade(2025 - 2030). Furthermore, right now China has significant problems with actually taking islands ensuring Indian coverage over Indian ocean - necessary amphibious capability isn't there yet.
Is it important? Yes, because IN has the option to reasonably safely retreat, and properly fortified and manned islands are likely to hold.

If China devotes its submarine fleet, that is 60 boats. That is the same size as the entire Indian Surface Navy!
Chinese submarines would be everywhere stalking Indian Navy ships and Indian civilian ports.
So does the Indian Navy disperse to protect its ports or does it concentrate to meet the Chinese Carrier Groups?
In reality, India would actually be under blockade and India's seaborne trade would be crippled.

Remember it only takes a couple of days for Chinese submarines to redeploy back to the Western Pacific if required.

So even today, the Indian Navy does NOT have the ability to stop a Chinese Navy incursion into the Indian Ocean.

Personally, I don't see transformation of air battle into something decisive. The losing side will quickly go defensive, and given the nature of the theater(ranges, altitudes) and combatants(IAF is big enough to last for quite a while, PLAAF is as good as endless), it pretty much equals to the ability to drag things for very long. Yes, the prevailing side will have more freedom for conducting strikes, but neither country is likely to crumble from that.

While the Indian army doesn't look like an overly modern fighting force (it's chronically underfunded) - simple numbers(IA may look shabby, but it's huge) and the nature of the theater (roof of the world) are likely to prevent decisive results there.

This is why I focus on the naval side of things. Air-sea warfare simply appears to matter the most for this conflict.

Why on earth are you talking about the roof of the world?

If China establishes air superiority over Kashmir and NE India - these are lowland areas which are densely populated by people who resent (perhaps the word is hate?) the presence of an occupying Indian Army. For these peoples, the Indian state represents incompetence, oppression and wilful neglect. These places will explode if China has air superiority and China announces its support for independence. Good luck trying to rally the world to support India - when Indian soldiers are savagely trying to put down a rebellion by millions of people who don't want to be Indian citizens.

So it's best not to delude yourself (or anyone else) that China-India will be limited to an Air-Sea war.

 

[sequ]

I can see Pakistan salivating at the thought of a unilateral Indian naval blockade of China. India can kiss the north eastern states and Kashmir goodbye

 

[Gatekeeper]

Why on earth are you talking about the roof of the world?

If China establishes air superiority over Kashmir and NE India - these are lowland areas which are densely populated by people who resent (perhaps the word is hate?) the presence of an occupying Indian Army. For these peoples, the Indian state represents incompetence, oppression and wilful neglect. These places will explode if China has air superiority and China announces its support for independence. Good luck trying to rally the world to support India - when Indian soldiers are savagely trying to put down a rebellion by millions of people who don't want to be Indian citizens.

So it's best not to delude yourself (or anyone else) that China-India will be limited to an Air-Sea war.

See what I mean guys. He drifts with his debating skills. He's able to isolate it in his head, and compartmentalize. Of course, we know the world is not like that.

He is just delusional. Carry on with his belief that super power india spent all their money and energy on building up their two-super carriers fleet (at the expense of the wellbeing of its people) to be able to chock China's trade route. And at the same time hurting the rest of the worlds trade without any consequences to itself. Oh, and by the way China won't be attacking the north east and north west of our wonderful India.

Jai Hind

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

See what I mean guys. He drifts with his debating skills. He's able to isolate it in his head, and compartmentalize. Of course, we know the world is not like that.

He is just delusional. Carry on with his belief that super power india spent all their money and energy on building up their two-super carriers fleet (at the expense of the wellbeing of its people) to be able to chock China's trade route. And at the same time hurting the rest of the worlds trade without any consequences to itself. Oh, and by the way China won't be attacking the north east and north west of our wonderful India.

Jai Hind

And it's really funny because all they do is talk. The power disparity between China and India is growing by the day, so it's only going to get harder. If they can do all these things, they'd better do them soon. Don't talk, do.

 

[Gatekeeper]

And it's really funny because all they do is talk. The power disparity between China and India is growing by the day, so it's only going to get harder. If they can do all these things, they'd better do them soon. Don't talk, do.

Kinda remind me of this.

 

[coolieno99]

By blockade, you for some reason assume complete blocking of all traffic in Malacca strait. This is an act of war against all states reliant on the stait, but it also is a self-invented argument.
All in all, there is little reason to do anything for India with Malacca strait itself - it's already under watch from the Andamans.

Partial blockade, however, is perfectly within means, for whole traffic has to come through the whole Indian ocean:
interdiction of China-flagged or -owned vessels;
Various means of preventing neutral shipping from reaching their destination.

Basically, if the normal procedure is in place(see 1899/1907 Hague conventions) - chances that neutral will involve themselves in the actual fighting are not exactly high. Escorting their own vessels will 100% happen (with corresponding complications for all means of OtH targeting), but fighting on one of sides just because one of the combatants applies the law of wararmed conflict at sea in the area of conflict to another combatant ... no.
p.s. also, given this is a China v scenario - I am not sure if bringing in neutrals is conducive to the discussion. Key military actors of the Indo-Pacific region aren't exactly Chinese friends.

This blockade operation is like something from World War 2. All those ships involve in the blockade can be taken out with cruise missiles launched from submarines or aircrafts. China has one of the largest modern submarine fleet in the world, there's no need to use surface ships (even though China has one of the largest number of modern naval surface combatants in the world). To aid in the detection and targeting of naval targets, surveillance satellites will be used (China has one of the largest fleet of surveillance satellites in the world, equipped with SAR[Synthetic Aperture Radar] ). The most difficult task in aircraft carrier warfare is to find and locate the carrier itself (it's always moving). The SAR satellite in low resolution mode (for wide field surveillance) would sweep the sea for finding prospective targets. Once it detected a large blip, it would switch to high resolution mode, and the target is swept again, The outline of the ship is visible, and can be determine if it's an oil tanker or aircraft carrier. There's a distinct difference between the two. The carrier can be attack by cruise missiles launched by submarines (Type 093G) or H-6 bombers. For H-6 attacks, the CMs can be launched at 900 miles, well outside the combat radius of the defending aircrafts of the carrier. The missiles will be guided by GPS satellites in the transit phase, and its own seekers in the terminal phase. The RCS (Radar Cross Section) of typical non-stealth cruise missile is about 0.3 sq m. It's very difficult to lock on, and defend against. For a stealth cruise missile, who knows.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Indians can just intercept the Chinese ships first, sort the cargo, and then send the ship on its way with foreign cargo only. Given their efficiency it may take the better part of a decade just to sort one ship.

@siegecrossbow

Is this efficient enough for you?

Superpower India at work! This must be the most efficient loading team in the world.

https://www.facebook.com/100004634883672/posts/1760596647438148

 

[Chin evan]

I say encourage them to blockade, China just have to sit back and watch Indians get to work it will be hilarious

 

[B.I.B.]

@siegecrossbow

Is this efficient enough for you?

how do you come up with these videos?