Indian Economics Thread II

[antiterror13]

The New York Times article clearly shows the difficulties a developing nation like India will face to rapidly advance it's economy. However, India has 2 advantages-
1 It has time. Decades and decades of time. Unlike East Asia, India has a stable demographic future.

Demographics is not destiny, in my opinion, but it does give you time to frame the right strategy to grow. India is not in a race to develop before it gets old.
2 It has the support of the West. The West may not be as powerful as it was in the past but it will still be a powerful economic force and they desperately want India to challenge China.
Whether that strategy works or not, only the future will tell.

The West don't like India, it just get west support to contain China .. nothing more. the West don't consider India is a threat to them (yet)

When India is strong enough (~ 20-30 yrs from now), you will see the West will hate you ... similar to China in 1980s, West loved China until China get too strong

There is nothing to do whether you are democratic or not ... not relevant at all. All about interest and geopolitic

 

[proelite]

The West don't like India, it just get west support to contain China .. nothing more. the West don't consider India is a threat to them (yet)

When India is strong enough (~ 20-30 yrs from now), you will see the West will hate you ... similar to China in 1980s, West loved China until China get too strong

There is nothing to do whether you are democratic or not ... not relevant at all. All about interest and geopolitic

+Japan in the 80s.

 

[donjasjit]

The West don't like India, it just get west support to contain China .. nothing more. the West don't consider India is a threat to them (yet)

When India is strong enough (~ 20-30 yrs from now), you will see the West will hate you ... similar to China in 1980s, West loved China until China get too strong

There is nothing to do whether you are democratic or not ... not relevant at all. All about interest and geopolitic

I agree. Every country looks out for their own interests.

India is useful to the West for 3 reasons-
1 As a counter to China
2 It's long term prospects because of favorable demographics
3 India wants to play the same field as China, that is global south and Russia.

Ironically, how close India and the West get depends on how badly the relations of the West and China deteriorate. If relations between China and the West get really bad, then even though India may be considered a threat it would still be a preferred partner.

As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Personally, I hope India and China find a way to become cordial to each other if not friends.

 

[Sardaukar20]

After reading your very shallow and biased understanding of things. I am gonna waste my time replying to you. I don't care if you would read my reply or not. My intended audience is not you, but other, more learned people.

Ignoring the racist subtext in your comment, the antipathy that some Indians have towards China is a very recent event.

Yeah. Only Chinese and pro-Chinese people are racist. Yeah Indians are never racist for calling the Chinese all kinds of vulgar and derogatory names. Indians can discriminate against the Chinese all they like, and its never gonna be called racist. Indians are never racist, because they are the victims. Indians can never be racist, because they are the biggest cry babies in the world.

It is a reflection of the very strained relations between the two countries after Galwan clash.

In fact, look at the article below to get a better understanding-

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This is despite the fact that China has give unequivocal support to Pakistan, India’s hated rival.

So Pakistan is a rival to India? Good. Because India is not a rival to China. They are not in the same league.

It all started when India supported the CIA-backed Dalai Lama and his separatists in Xizang. Then India attempted a military invasion into Chinese territories. Both Nehru's Forward Policy and the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat report had stated that Nehru's India had sent armed soldiers into not just disputed territories with China, but also into territories beyond the McMahon Line, into China proper. Then, Nehru had also gave the order to his soldiers to open fire on any Chinese forces that comes to contest those areas taken by India. This is a textbook military invasion. China gave India the beating that it deserved, but India refuses to negotiate the border demarcation till today. It just so happened around those times, that Pakistan was also on the receiving end of Indian aggression, imperialism, and expansionism. So, it was natural for Pakistan to ally with China. India made this happen.

Nothing ever happens in a vacuum. India aggression, belligerence, and imperial ambitions towards all of its neighbours have push many South Asian nations, closer to China. Even nations who were historically close to India like Bangladesh and Bhutan have drifted closer to China because they are concerned about this new and crazy India under Modi.

The decline in relations started after China embarked on a new aggressive foreign policy also called the Wolf warrior policy.

Again. Nothing happens in a vacuum. The "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy" happened due to decades of attempts by the West and its lackeys to demonize and destroy China. There were multiple attempted Color Revolutions over the decades. There was that Pivot to Asia thing, started by Obama and Clinton long before any mention of "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy". Then that idiot Trump came, and China has had enough. China had to stand up for itself, because the Chinese people all over the world needed it, and demanded it. When China pushed back, the West reeled in shock. How dare China pushes back! Hence they label this Chinese push back as "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy".

What about India's foreign policy under Modi? We have been hearing about Akhand Bharat every so often. Everything in India today is about fighting Pakistan and China. India, not China was the one who had fired live ammunition in anger against another nation in the last 5 years. Who is the true aggressor in Asia?

China can hardly be blamed for this, as countries become strong they flex their muscles, it is a natural order for human societies.

China has muscles, but it also has brains. China was in no hurry to flex its muscles. But China had to respond when dumb nations with no muscles, or no brains, or both, started poking at China. Yet China does most of its damage with its brains, not its muscle.

This is unlike one very special Supapowa nation who has some muscle (not that much actually), but has barely any brains. That nation got its ass whooped in economic and military terms by smaller and humbler nations around Asia.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Typical. Predictable. As if the rule of law had ever existed in India.

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India’s Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to order a special probe into allegations of stock-market manipulation against the Adani Group, a conglomerate owned by the country’s second richest man Gautam Adani.

The allegations were made last year by American research firm Hindenburg.

In a major relief for Adani, the court directed the stock-market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to complete its ongoing investigation within a period of three months.

India to investigate Adani? Adani and the Indian government are like the same people. Its like trusting a thief to investigate himself.

 

[ansy1968]

I have a lot of good Indian friends. I don't think your statement is correct

Well Sir you lived in a different region, here they were derogatory called "Bumbay" the money lenders as most of those people who settled here are of the lower income level, just like the Chinese, many came from the provinces not the sophisticated city dwellers (of course that trend is changing thanks to animosity among the Collective West). BUT you're right and mostly depend on Religion, like you I had a lot of Indians Muslim and Christian friends. And they're a joy to mingle with, one of them is Ali, when I'm talking with him he reminded me of @Sardaukar20 as he explain the intrinsic details of Indian Character, moral values and traits. (being a victim of Modi anti Muslim pogrom)

 

[Staedler]

1 It has time. Decades and decades of time. Unlike East Asia, India has a stable demographic future.

India doesn't have a stable demographic future. There's a reason the the 2021 Indian census has been delayed to 2024, after the next election.

Even according to optimistic numbers from the Indian government, TFR was 2 in 2021. If you look at the Indian population pyramid (WHO), you'll notice the cohort below 20 is shrinking at an accelerating rate, 2.7% for those between 10 and 20, but 4.4% for those under 10.

Put together it means India's TFR was likely to shrink at minimum 4% annually if COVID never happened. This matches up with India's number prior to 2014. It was at -2% yoy and went as low as 3.2% in 2013. Then in 2014, the TFR numbers magically rose to only -1.2% per year from then until COVID. During the COVID years India's reported TFR rose again to -0.8% yoy. I repeat it rose during COVID. I wonder what happened in 2014? I think someone with a penchant for making up fake figures whose name starts with an M and ends with an I came into office.

A yoy decline in TFR of 3-4% means India will be where China currently is demographically in 9-12 years. And that's just from continuing previous trends.

Let's also talk about climate change. It's basically going to hit the countries in the tropics hardest (this is also why the West doesn't actually care about it). Of the tropical countries, India's likely to be the hardest hit. 60% of India's agriculture is dependent on the rain, i.e. the Indian Monsoon. Groundwater in India is already overstressed and climate change promises to disrupt the monsoon season making its timing and amount unpredictable. Climate data shows both drought and flooding increasing in India. Furthermore, the increased temperatures and weather variability will reduce rice/wheat yields in India. Indeed there's some suspicion this has already started to take place given the numbers from 2001-2013, again the numbers 2014 onwards being powered by pure Jai Hindinum. Not to mention what increased temperatures will do to worker productivity and health.

All of that will have a further impact on India's TFR. I'm not holding my breath on India's "stable demographic future". But you don't care about any of that, so let's just say it:

JAI HIND

 

[antiterror13]

Well Sir you lived in a different region, here they were derogatory called "Bumbay" the money lenders as most of those people who settled here are of the lower income level, just like the Chinese, many came from the provinces not the sophisticated city dwellers (of course that trend is changing thanks to animosity among the Collective West). BUT you're right and mostly depend on Religion, like you I had a lot of Indians Muslim and Christian friends. And they're a joy to mingle with, one of them is Ali, when I'm talking with him he reminded me of @Sardaukar20 as he explain the intrinsic details of Indian Character, moral values and traits. (being a victim of Modi anti Muslim pogrom)

True actually my friend @ansy1968 ... my Indian friends are mostly professional in my office, they are open minded and good

 

[Biscuits]

True actually my friend @ansy1968 ... my Indian friends are mostly professional in my office, they are open minded and good

In my experience if they made it abroad, they're not the ones that live in a fish bowl like environment unlike the rest of the Modite.

It's not easy to make your way out of an area that is basically a reskin of sub Saharan Africa and still remain ignorant, unlikable and oblivious.

 

[ansy1968]

True actually my friend @ansy1968 ... my Indian friends are mostly professional in my office, they are open minded and good

So true sir, most of my Indian friends of Christian and Muslim faith are from the cities. BUT I had encountered a Jai Hindi Brahmin many times and it leave a bad taste in one's mouth.

And it seems that Jai Hindi crowds are very cautious of the Chinese, maybe they know that we won't be easily fool, so those disdain attitude of theirs are a by product of those experience as they come out as losers.