(cont 1)
Track discipline
When any disciplined force like an army is deployed in tents, it ensures minimum movement to avoid detection by eyes in the sky. The movement of troops either in vehicles or on foot creates additional tracks and exposes locations like the operations room and signal centre.
A careful commander ensures that only old tracks are used by his troops, and no new tracks are created, referred to as track discipline in military jargon.
This track discipline needs to be of the highest order to avoid detection by satellite imagery or aerial coverage by UAVs. The track discipline of the PLA in this area has been poor – one of the reasons for the detection of this well-camouflaged and well-dispersed brigade by satellites.
Satellite imagery showing track discipline in the region
The units identified seem to suggest it is a deployment of a combined arms brigade consisting of all the elements of the PLA ground force, rather than a simple brigade with three infantry units.
Roads built by China in this part of Tibet are black topped with large berms – flat strips of land – and the road coming up to the contested area of Doklam is wide enough to sustain heavy traffic including motorised/mechanised vehicles.
The importance of this deployment also increases considering the areas of North Sikkim, between Gurudongmar Lake and Mt Chomo Yummo, have been an eyesore for the Chinese for years. This area is only 50 km west of the new deployment in Doklam.
Satellite imagery showing the general area of Doklam
Comparison of this protruding thumb of North Sikkim indicated in the image below illustrates the point better. The brigade strength identified by this report is located 50 km from both the protruding thumb and the Doklam area. The brigade could be used to occupy either area in as little as two hours.
Units and headquarters
There are a large number of units possibly deployed in and around this area. The ones that could be identified are explained below:
Logistics Unit: A possible logistics unit has been identified in this area. It has 26 second line transport units used by the PLA clearly visible without any camouflage. There four possible stores under camouflage nets for clothing, rations, ammunition etc.
Satellite imagery showing potential logistics units in the region
Two of these stores are dug out and two are overground, suggesting that the two underground ones are probably ordnance stores. There are six large tents, possibly for storing winter clothing or other such stocks. There are many other tents and vehicles under camouflage nets observed as well.
Air Defence and Artillery Unit: There are two very prominent artillery deployments observed in the area – two units of six guns each.
Satellite imagery showing potential anti-aircraft units
The one on the west is probably the air defence sub-unit and the one on the east is probably artillery pieces.
Mechanised Unit: There is a unit very well camouflaged, possibly consisting of a mechanised unit with transporters in a group of six nets.
There are vehicles partially camouflaged located to the north of the road, probably carrying ammunition and/or other support equipment.
Headquarters: There are a large numbers of tents concentrated in an area observed in the satellite image. This could possibly be a formation headquarters. There is a large square of camouflaged nets with an opening and a parking space. Three vehicles are observed parked. The area around this concentration of camouflaged nets shows large numbers of vehicular tracks suggesting regular, heavy use.
Satellite imagery showing the possible headquarters in Doklam
This appears to be the operations room, partially underground and covered with camouflage nets. There are a few tents with camouflaged nets south of the operations room with more vehicular movement observed, suggesting these are probably officers’ tents-cum-offices.
Another set of tents with small vehicles is observed in the same area with cables connecting to other tents. This possibly is the signals centre for communications. There also are a large number of tents under camouflage nets and vehicles observed which are possibly support troops for the headquarters.
There are a large number of tell-tale signs left behind by the previous deployment during the Doklam stand-off. One of them clearly indicates that there was an air defence battery with eight guns.
The sudden increase in Chinese presence of 3,000 troops with assorted mechanised vehicles in the Doklam area will make it a huge challenge for the Indian Army to face.
(The report has been updated to include the comment of the Indian External Affairs Ministry)
Colonel Vinayak Bhat (retd) is a Military Intelligence veteran of the Indian Army with vast experience of satellite imagery analysis. He has worked as a Chinese interpreter and is a specialist on PLA and Pakistan’s armed forces. He tweets @rajfortyseven