India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

That would start an all-out war. Indian navy is just going to sit back and let you sink half its fleet? PLAAF and PLAN do not have the power projection abilities to take on IAF and IN in the Indian Ocean where most of their fleet is.

PLAAF and PLANAF do have power projection capabilities into the eastern Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, particularly with the H-6 fleet. The YJ-12 also extends that reach and allows the fighter-bombers also to achieve that reach. See here:

A well planned strike, at the optimal opportunity, could be very successful. This type of planning is the essential element of a surprise attack. So, India wouldn't "sit back and let you ( i have no intention of doing so) sink half its fleet". It would be done as a SURPRISE!!!

But, hey, I'm neither expert nor prophet. So, I speak neither with the certainty of either, nor that of a twenty-something.

ougoah said:

That would start an all-out war. Indian navy is just going to sit back and let you sink half its fleet? PLAAF and PLAN do not have the power projection abilities to take on IAF and IN in the Indian Ocean where most of their fleet is.

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That depends on how far south we're talking but farther south and India itself doesn't have power projection there either. In the regions closer to India, to attack Indian ships, China doesn't even need to send its own fleet. ASBMs like DF-21D and the superior DF-26 can target Indian ships all around India directly from the southwest China.

Well China will need to surprise attack or escalate the war. You are essentially talking about fighting in India's backyard. If the USAF knocked out some destroyers present in SCS, you think China's not going to retaliate with as much aggression? Why would India not do similar? It is true that India does not have nearly half the raw firepower China's capable of, but China will be exerting all that in a region so far from its own bases. Any attack will be limited but successful if done with surprise, but it'll be political suicide and come with the risk of unnecessary escalation. In this case, it'll be better for China not to show up to this fight. Never go to a fight you've been invited to.

ougoah said:

Well China will need to surprise attack or escalate the war. You are essentially talking about fighting in India's backyard. If the USAF knocked out some destroyers present in SCS, you think China's not going to retaliate with as much aggression? Why would India not do similar? It is true that India does not have nearly half the raw firepower China's capable of, but China will be exerting all that in a region so far from its own bases. Any attack will be limited but successful if done with surprise, but it'll be political suicide and come with the risk of unnecessary escalation. In this case, it'll be better for China not to show up to this fight. Never go to a fight you've been invited to.

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Wait, first of all, we're only talking about attacking Indian ships in the Indian Ocean if India takes it there and tries to embargo Chinese ships, which is already a huge escalation and far-fetched/unwieldy as a strategy. Without India taking it there, China would just give them a little confined beating over at Doklam. There is nowhere that India could escalate this where it could win; the bigger they make it, they bigger they lose.

Secondly, if China decides to use ASBMs on ships that it identifies by satellite as hunting for Chinese merchant ships and fires those from say Yunnan, how would India respond? It could only retreat its forces to safety cus they have no military targets and they are targets.

Thirdly, how would it be political suicide? Let's get this straight: Western media is biased and can say whatever they want about China, but at a WTO or UN debate, they need to have concrete, logical reasons to implement sanctions, which they do not. And that's assuming any of those nations have the appetite for risk to stop business with China, which, if they did, they would have already found some other reason to do it before. If China beat the crap out of India, Western nations would maybe issue some statements saying China did not restrain itself, but that's about it. Political "suicide" is making a mountain out of a molehill here.

But I do not debate against your conclusion that China should not fight. I believe China may have to hold back to keep its military resources ready to prevent or to fight a Korea conflict. India's little mess can be taken-care of at any time but if America makes a move on North Korea, there's no time but now.

I think you have underestimated the repercussions of how dramatically the western media will exaggerate this.

ougoah said:

I think you have underestimated the repercussions of how dramatically the western media will exaggerate this.

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What do you think these countries would actually do against China? Cus like I said, media can say whatever they want, but a UN/WTO debate doesn't draw its conclusions from the media. They will have to stare China in the face and say what was horrendously unacceptable about beating intruders out of your territory. There will be actual facts, satellite images, etc... from the incident. THEN, they will actually have to have a plan for what they want to do about it and that plan can't wreck their own economy.

Overall public opinion does matter. It can have a multiplier effect on business and how well received Chinese people and ideas are. The level of cooperation between people on an individual level. Heaps of consequences. This is why the PR game is the most important game. Nothing else matters unless it's all out war.

ougoah said:

Overall public opinion does matter. It can have a multiplier effect on business and how well received Chinese people and ideas are. The level of cooperation between people on an individual level. Heaps of consequences. This is why the PR game is the most important game. Nothing else matters unless it's all out war.

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China already has terrible PR with the West; they just don't like a country from the East rising to possibly become world number 1. The fact is, anyone who didn't like China before this still won't and anyone who did still will. And to be honest, no one in the West does business with China because they love China (politically) or like feeding the Chinese economy; they do business with China for their own profits and out of necessity to fight their competition. They do business with China because China offers the best service/product for the price in the world. The real question is, whether these people would be willing to sacrifice their own interests and profits in a show of solidarity with India. Do people love India? LOL Not from what I can tell.

From what I see, China and India are opposites in Western minds. Westerners are supposed to hate China because of politics but they often find themselves enthralled by its beauty and culture and end up making confused, stupid statements like, "It's so wonderful here but the government is oppressive and terrible. I love the Chinese people but hate the government." But for India, westerners are taught that they should like India because it's the biggest democracy in the world but to be honest, they just can't find anything intrinsically attractive about India.

I didn't read last few pages, here is the detail where the rock throwng and fighting broke out.



As you can see, this little peninsula is surround by 3 side of water. And the Line of Actual control on google map clearly indicate that the flat part of the lands belong to China, the hilly part of the land belong to India. The fight broke out on the flat lands which clear means once again Indians cross into Chinese controlled territory. Look at good map here, even on that, it clear shows which parts are China which parts are India.



China said they are just doing usual patrol until they encounter a group of Indian solders who never suppose to be here, and fight broke out.

If anything, it look like the Indians are trying to another Dolam, unilaterally cross into other side's territory and breaking the statue quo, its good that the Chinese this time are prepared deal with it, otherwise the Indian can do the same as they did in Dolam, set up camp and not leave.

ps... this is a place of actual border dispute, but line of actual control is clearly draw out of who controls where, and this is located 500km away from Dolam, I have a feeling India is not just backing down, they want a full scale war.

If this is the case, I say China should warn India if we do go to war that you provoked, we are taking back South Tibet, Ladakh along with everything else