India incursion and Chinese standoff at Dolam, Bhutan

Status
Not open for further replies.

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A war with China, especially the one where India loses and loses miserably, would give him one rallying cry, silencing and crushing anyone questioning in opposition.

Umm, no. If you got pick a fight and get your arse handed to you, it doesn't make the unwashed masses flock to your cause.

The main problem with Chinese military options is that right now, it's not really worth China's while to fight.

The west, forever hostile to China, will accuse China to overreaction if China hits Indian military targets in Chinese territory, and would scream bloody murder if China hit Indian targets in India.

The most diplomatically acceptable military option would be a limited military operation targeted at the Indian troops inside Chinese territory, with gradual escalation options available to respond to any Indian counter moves.

I think the 'trap' China is worried about is that India doesn't respond to the initial Chinese military operation and play the victim card while getting some western governments to play along for the home crowd to put on a show like how India was ready to rain fire and fury on China, but was talked out of if by the peace loving westerners for the greater good or some other BS.

40 Indian nobody boarder guards getting machine gunned or turned to pink mist by artillery would be the kind of rallying point you are suggesting, and allow Modi to cement his position and entrench anti-China forces in Indian government and public leadership, while at the same time not taking too much beef for a military loss. It will also leave enough doubt for the Indian chest thumpers to think they could still take China in a fight.

That would be the worst of all worlds for China, as it would achieve nothing militarily but suffer huge reputational damage thanks to the western central media propaganda alliance; while Modi entrenches his power and make India overtly hostile to China.

If China is to use the PLA, it needs to use it in a big way to leave zero doubt in anyone's minds as to who has the overwhelming military advantage.

But right now, India is not provoking China enough to justify such a massive military response.

This latest incident may well be China starting to push back and sending India the message that China will not limit any fight to that one place cherry picked by India. And part of a general strategy by China to up the stakes by creating more flashpoints such that in the event of open hostilities, the entire boarder lights up. Thus allowing the PLA to launch a military operation on the scale it needs to achieve its main strategic objectives of cutting the Indian nationalists off at the knees and leave them with no leg to stand on to defend their reckless actions and behaviours, thereby bring down the Modi government and potentially make the Indians think twice about starting trouble in the boarders for another 50 years.

Or it may just be the natural by-product of the stand-off, where the increase in tensions and hostilities is reaching frontline troops, who are now acting more aggressively than they would have in the past.

Either way, it marks an escalation in tensions and makes all out war more likely.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have no doubt Beijing is figuring it out what are Modi's endgame and expected payouts in India's domestic politics via Donglong standoff.


I still see the entire doklam standoff as India's way of releasing some steam due to One Belt and One Road. While I can't predict how it will end, it is clear India does not know what to do either. Waiting will lead to only one result, which is Bhutan's pressure will mount and eventually Bhutan decided to work with China. At that time it will be more than a lose of face by India.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
I still see the entire doklam standoff as India's way of releasing some steam due to One Belt and One Road. While I can't predict how it will end, it is clear India does not know what to do either. Waiting will lead to only one result, which is Bhutan's pressure will mount and eventually Bhutan decided to work with China. At that time it will be more than a lose of face by India.

Most likely, India is going to withdraw and tell Bhutan to fill its void. Then Bhutan, under Chinese pressure, also decides to withdraw from Doklam. This is the only way India doesn't lose "face" to the Chinese.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
Most likely, India is going to withdraw and tell Bhutan to fill its void. Then Bhutan, under Chinese pressure, also decides to withdraw from Doklam. This is the only way India doesn't lose "face" to the Chinese.

The problem with that is if this sets the precedence of how to process "disputed territory under actual control of China", it gives Chinese green light to use military in all the disputed territory under actual control of India (which is a lot). In that sense India loses big. But maybe China does not have much interests wasting time here.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
The problem with that is if this sets the precedence of how to process "disputed territory under actual control of China", it gives Chinese green light to use military in all the disputed territory under actual control of India (which is a lot). In that sense India loses big. But maybe China does not have much interests wasting time here.

No. Next time, China will be much more prepared to deal with these types of incursions. They'll probably strengthen their border defenses once more and allocate more troops to the area. I seriously doubt the Indians are going to trespass into Doklam again.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
Umm, no. If you got pick a fight and get your arse handed to you, it doesn't make the unwashed masses flock to your cause.

The main problem with Chinese military options is that right now, it's not really worth China's while to fight.

The west, forever hostile to China, will accuse China to overreaction if China hits Indian military targets in Chinese territory, and would scream bloody murder if China hit Indian targets in India.

The most diplomatically acceptable military option would be a limited military operation targeted at the Indian troops inside Chinese territory, with gradual escalation options available to respond to any Indian counter moves.

I think the 'trap' China is worried about is that India doesn't respond to the initial Chinese military operation and play the victim card while getting some western governments to play along for the home crowd to put on a show like how India was ready to rain fire and fury on China, but was talked out of if by the peace loving westerners for the greater good or some other BS.

40 Indian nobody boarder guards getting machine gunned or turned to pink mist by artillery would be the kind of rallying point you are suggesting, and allow Modi to cement his position and entrench anti-China forces in Indian government and public leadership, while at the same time not taking too much beef for a military loss. It will also leave enough doubt for the Indian chest thumpers to think they could still take China in a fight.

That would be the worst of all worlds for China, as it would achieve nothing militarily but suffer huge reputational damage thanks to the western central media propaganda alliance; while Modi entrenches his power and make India overtly hostile to China.

If China is to use the PLA, it needs to use it in a big way to leave zero doubt in anyone's minds as to who has the overwhelming military advantage.

But right now, India is not provoking China enough to justify such a massive military response.

This latest incident may well be China starting to push back and sending India the message that China will not limit any fight to that one place cherry picked by India. And part of a general strategy by China to up the stakes by creating more flashpoints such that in the event of open hostilities, the entire boarder lights up. Thus allowing the PLA to launch a military operation on the scale it needs to achieve its main strategic objectives of cutting the Indian nationalists off at the knees and leave them with no leg to stand on to defend their reckless actions and behaviours, thereby bring down the Modi government and potentially make the Indians think twice about starting trouble in the boarders for another 50 years.

Or it may just be the natural by-product of the stand-off, where the increase in tensions and hostilities is reaching frontline troops, who are now acting more aggressively than they would have in the past.

Either way, it marks an escalation in tensions and makes all out war more likely.

Congress Party stayed on power for many many more years after 62 war.
Right wing Hindu nationalists tasted power only for 3 years in total in the entire history of modern India, so it can play out in so many different ways to get what they want. If Modi is gone, there will be another Modi in BJP. They are well organized, well funded, so their propaganda machine would be well oiled. It would certainly spin the story to one of great sacrifice and courage, erecting memorials, giving out medals and the whole nine yard . The brave who died for their Hindu homeland, perfect role models for multitudes of half-literate youth.

To compare, China's goal is to become a Xiaokang, a moderately prosperous country by 2020, whereas Hindutva's goal is for India to become a Hindu Rashtra by 2020, the only thing getting in their way, it appears, is the democratic system they so dearly cherish as per they claim.

These skirmishes and standoffs are quite a distraction to the main business. Every time India does or China does something the other party doesn't agree, we can't just start hostilities anew. So this whack a mole strategy along 4000 km border isn't good enough any more. If India doesn't want to cooperate to have a negotiated solution, which is quite apparent, China would have to come up with a strategy to control the game via different layers, rather than just military reaction alone. It seems they now require more attention than they used to.

Personally speaking, I want the young Chinese troops live for the country, not die. Fighting is the last resort. Then again when to start and end violence is a quite tricky question.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
I've always wondered why China doesn't respond in kind to India's illegal incursions. I think that Pakistan would be more than happy to let China intervene on its behalf in Kashmir. After all, Aksai Chin is bordering the disputed region. Chinese troops entering Kashmir to protect Pakistan would be a great tit-for-tat approach. That would let the Indians know to stop messing around.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
I still see the entire doklam standoff as India's way of releasing some steam due to One Belt and One Road. While I can't predict how it will end, it is clear India does not know what to do either. Waiting will lead to only one result, which is Bhutan's pressure will mount and eventually Bhutan decided to work with China. At that time it will be more than a lose of face by India.

I don't see any realistic ways Bhutan can independently work with China to resolve the dispute, practically they are a puppet of India. No wonder long years of negotiation between Bhutan and China came to no fruition.
India sent about USD 1 B in annual aid to Bhutan per news report. There is a significant number of Indian troops in Bhutan's Haa and Paro valley, allegedly on training mission.

Indian Army barracks in Haa, close to Donglong.

U36MY
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't see any realistic ways Bhutan can independently work with China to resolve the dispute, practically they are a puppet of India. No wonder long years of negotiation between Bhutan and China came to no fruition.
India sent about USD 1 B in annual aid to Bhutan per news report. There is a significant number of Indian troops in Bhutan's Haa and Paro valley, allegedly on training mission.

Indian Army barracks in Haa, close to Donglong.
U36MY

Bhutan has a new election coming up in a few month. The last election was manipulated by India, but this time we all watch.

The Indian troops in Bhutan are supposed to be unarmed. They are the trainer.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
Couldn't China, instead, respond asymmetrically? For example, instead of contesting the actual incursion in Dolam, might they employ H-6s armed with YJ-12s, and J-16s, MKK2s, and JH-7s flying from a southern base like Mengzi, also armed with YJ-12s, to completely destroy the Indian Navy in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea? A strategy such as this, if successful, would be financially costly and embarrassing to India, put India at a considerable strategic disadvantage regionally and, most significant, be wholly unretaliatable, at least in kind. It would also avoid the necessity of violating territorial boundaries and the types of escalations that this could entail.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top