How will the PLA/PRC get involved in iraq?
- Thread starter Blackstone
- Start date
Blackstone
Brigadier
Should there come a rash of Chinese kidnappings, I'm sure the Red Emperor will sing a different tune, or maybe have his beautiful wife do it.
Iraq is a big chunk of mess right now. No need China to commit any involvement at least "militarily" because China don't have such power projection over there and it should remain that way.
Business wise, China can be friendly to whoever is in charge be it the new Islamic State with their new Caliph, new Kurdistan state or still with the formal "old" Iraq with Shiite leadership.
It's a political mess that requires political solution.
This would be a true Islamic Caliphate revival and will test the loyalties of many Sunni followers. Saudi Arab King a bit worried right now that his authority might be challenge by this rising new leader of the Muslim.
Business wise, China can be friendly to whoever is in charge be it the new Islamic State with their new Caliph, new Kurdistan state or still with the formal "old" Iraq with Shiite leadership.
It's a political mess that requires political solution.
This would be a true Islamic Caliphate revival and will test the loyalties of many Sunni followers. Saudi Arab King a bit worried right now that his authority might be challenge by this rising new leader of the Muslim.
the only thing that china can do if SHTF in Iraq is to evacuate it's workers there. there is a reason for china's "non interference" policy in foreign affairs, its just common sense. there is so many factions and parties fighting amongst each other it's impossible for china to influence events even if they wanted to. the Chinese are just pragmatic they know their limits they mind their own frigging business. if they cant make any money there and their business collapse because of this new civil war they just have to cut their losses and consider it a stupid mistake. they are not delusional like the superpower who thinks and believes they can shape every middle east country to their liking via regime change or color revolutions. look at Iraq now after 2 US invasions, 2 trillion dollars spent, puppet regimes installed, Iraqi military trained and supplied by US defence contractors, the untold number of ''private'' contractors hired to the dirty work for the US govt and now we are witnessing the verge of a total collapse of an American imperial pet project right before our eyes. this is the greatest lesson for china in foreign policy. if the worlds most powerful country cannot effectively control a tiny little nation the size of texas with all it's military, technological might then china should never even try a stunt like that. the Chinese are in Iraq do business, not war, and if the locals don't want to do business with china then they should pack their bags and leave. let the warmongers stay for war.
中国政府军事介入伊拉克是不现实的，也是不符合中国一贯政策的。
出于反对国际恐怖主义，尤其是考虑到新疆的恐怖主义与中亚恐怖势力之间的关联
中国政府会从外交和政治上给予伊拉克、叙利亚政府相应的支持，甚至援助，但绝不会出动PLA，尤其是地面部队。
至于撤侨，参照利比亚，大多数情况下还是运用外交资源，依靠当地政府以及部落势力（就像在巴基斯坦和阿富汗所做的那样）。
btw，解决ISIS，或者恐怖势力，单靠军事手段收效不大且代价高昂。美军在阿富汗反恐十多年的结果就是一个很典型的例子。
作为游击战理论创始人，毛主席曾说过，游击战的核心是人民战争理论。脱离了群众基础，游击战不能持久，反之则星星之火可以燎原。
恐怖主义滋生的根源是什么？个人认为在于贫困和无知。这样极端宗教就有了市场。因此，解决ISIS问题，三分军事，七分政治。关键在于稳定伊拉克社会局势，消除教派冲突，改善伊拉克民生和治安状况。而不是挑起教派冲突从而从中谋取利益。这应该也是中国政府一贯的政策和立场。
btw2，如果局势继续发展下去，如果伊拉克共产党采取了正确的方针政策，或许几十年后在中东会出现第一个伊斯兰社会主义国家：LOL
China government military involvement in Iraq is not realistic, but also inconsistent with the China consistent policy.
For the sake of anti-international-terrorism, especially considering the relationship between terrorism in Xinjiang and Central Asian terrorist forces,
China's government will provide some diplomatic and political supports or material aid to Iraq's and Syria's governments, but not sending PLA to these countries.
As for the evacuation, according to Libya, in most cases Chinese will rely on the local government and the tribal forces (as in Pakistan and Afghanistan).
BTW, ISIS, or terrorist forces, military means alone is ineffective and costly. The result of American forces in Afghanistan in the past decade is a typical example.
As the founder of the theory of guerrilla warfare, Chairman Mao once said, the core of guerrilla warfare is the people's war theory. Apart from the mass base, guerrilla warfare can not be sustained, conversely sparks of fire can start a prairie fire.
What is the root of terrorism? IMHO， is poverty and ignorance, which provide chances for extreme religious to improve. Therefore, to solve the ISIS problem, 30% military, 70% political. The key lies in the stability of social situation in Iraq, the elimination of sectarian conflicts, improve people's livelihood and the security situation in iraq, instead to provoke sectarian conflict so as to reap the benefits. This should also be China government's policies and positions.
Btw2, if the situation continues, if the Iraqi Communist Party to take the correct policy, perhaps after a few years in the Middle East there will be the first Islamic socialist state: LOL
出于反对国际恐怖主义，尤其是考虑到新疆的恐怖主义与中亚恐怖势力之间的关联
中国政府会从外交和政治上给予伊拉克、叙利亚政府相应的支持，甚至援助，但绝不会出动PLA，尤其是地面部队。
至于撤侨，参照利比亚，大多数情况下还是运用外交资源，依靠当地政府以及部落势力（就像在巴基斯坦和阿富汗所做的那样）。
btw，解决ISIS，或者恐怖势力，单靠军事手段收效不大且代价高昂。美军在阿富汗反恐十多年的结果就是一个很典型的例子。
作为游击战理论创始人，毛主席曾说过，游击战的核心是人民战争理论。脱离了群众基础，游击战不能持久，反之则星星之火可以燎原。
恐怖主义滋生的根源是什么？个人认为在于贫困和无知。这样极端宗教就有了市场。因此，解决ISIS问题，三分军事，七分政治。关键在于稳定伊拉克社会局势，消除教派冲突，改善伊拉克民生和治安状况。而不是挑起教派冲突从而从中谋取利益。这应该也是中国政府一贯的政策和立场。
btw2，如果局势继续发展下去，如果伊拉克共产党采取了正确的方针政策，或许几十年后在中东会出现第一个伊斯兰社会主义国家：LOL
China government military involvement in Iraq is not realistic, but also inconsistent with the China consistent policy.
For the sake of anti-international-terrorism, especially considering the relationship between terrorism in Xinjiang and Central Asian terrorist forces,
China's government will provide some diplomatic and political supports or material aid to Iraq's and Syria's governments, but not sending PLA to these countries.
As for the evacuation, according to Libya, in most cases Chinese will rely on the local government and the tribal forces (as in Pakistan and Afghanistan).
BTW, ISIS, or terrorist forces, military means alone is ineffective and costly. The result of American forces in Afghanistan in the past decade is a typical example.
As the founder of the theory of guerrilla warfare, Chairman Mao once said, the core of guerrilla warfare is the people's war theory. Apart from the mass base, guerrilla warfare can not be sustained, conversely sparks of fire can start a prairie fire.
What is the root of terrorism? IMHO， is poverty and ignorance, which provide chances for extreme religious to improve. Therefore, to solve the ISIS problem, 30% military, 70% political. The key lies in the stability of social situation in Iraq, the elimination of sectarian conflicts, improve people's livelihood and the security situation in iraq, instead to provoke sectarian conflict so as to reap the benefits. This should also be China government's policies and positions.
Btw2, if the situation continues, if the Iraqi Communist Party to take the correct policy, perhaps after a few years in the Middle East there will be the first Islamic socialist state: LOL
I can't tell if your punchline is aware of the fact that the Baath/Arab nationalist/Nasserite parties across the Middle East are all socialist.
Communism (atheists) can never be entrenched in the Middle East, regardless of a few attempts in the PAST by a few ultra-Socialist Arab parties. The majority of Arabs are Muslims regardless of their sects or beliefs. They can be either moderates or extremists. The Arab governments will cooperate with countries for business, investments etc. These are for mutual benefits - but they will be very wary of other political/religious/philosophical beliefs. The basic principles of dealing with these countries are: Study and know their cultural and religious beliefs FIRST before attempting to do do business etc. SECONDLY, have good indigenous contacts in the Arab countries concerned. Really basic, sometimes forgotten by business people and diplomats. THIRDLY and important for the Arabs is TRUST by actions not words.
u r right in some senses.