How will the PLA/PRC get involved in iraq?

Re: PLA in Iraq?

I agree that the PLA will not risk becoming actively involved. Two reasons: 1. China has problems with a good number of its Muslim population in Xinjiang Province, some have carried out bombings in recent months. PLA militarily going against the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq & Syria) group in Iraq will therefore invite more problems for China i.e. step up of Foreign Islamists (Extremists) support of their Muslim separatists (Uighers etc.) in this Northern China Province. 2. Unlike the US and the Coalition Forces, the PLA is inexperienced in fighting this kind of insurgency warfare (suicide bombers, IED etc.), and I doubt militarily and politically China will want to be involved in the military quagmire. Yes, China will do all it can to evacuate its nationals. They will probably now be planning how to deal/negotiate with the ISIS if their oil fields investments are taken over by this Islamist group.

Jeff Head said:

Not a chance in Hades of the PLA becoming actively involved in the fighting up north IMHO.

However, if they needed to conduct an operation to evacuate or safeguard their people...and if it deteriorated to the point that Iraq could not do that, then I believe the PRC would use whatever forces it could muster to evacuate Chinese nationals.

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The situation in Iraq can not be viewed in isloation. This developing situation could potentially be the dreaded Shite-Sunni civil war that everyone feared.

In the grand scheme of things. What are China's interests in the region?
Should China side with the Persians and Shites? Or should China side with the Saudis and the Sunnis?

That is the questions one should be asking. What options the PRC have will fall out of the answers to those questions.

Doombreed said:

The situation in Iraq can not be viewed in isloation. This developing situation could potentially be the dreaded Shite-Sunni civil war that everyone feared.

In the grand scheme of things. What are China's interests in the region?
Should China side with the Persians and Shites? Or should China side with the Saudis and the Sunnis?

That is the questions one should be asking. What options the PRC have will fall out of the answers to those questions.

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It will most likely be influenced by Pakistan's stance in the conflict. China is fortunate to be on good terms with a 170 million population nuclear power, which is also predominantly Sunni Muslim; if Pakistan has strong convictions in a potential conflict, there is no doubt China will loathe to contradict them. At most, China will remain neutral, but will probably refrain from arming Shi'ite forces.

Doombreed said:

The situation in Iraq can not be viewed in isloation. This developing situation could potentially be the dreaded Shite-Sunni civil war that everyone feared.

In the grand scheme of things. What are China's interests in the region?
Should China side with the Persians and Shites? Or should China side with the Saudis and the Sunnis?

That is the questions one should be asking. What options the PRC have will fall out of the answers to those questions.

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By going in together Turkey and Iran can diminish the Shia/Sunni aspect of the situation. China can support both countries in such an endeavor.

delft said:

By going in together Turkey and Iran can diminish the Shia/Sunni aspect of the situation. China can support both countries in such an endeavor.

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The situation in Iraq is complex and China should not intervene under false invitations. No point depleting her resources to fight a war that return so little and falls into a trap like all the previous great power. Securing her near interest like SCS, ECS and western region already a heavy task for her military, no need to get involve into jihadists, sectarians quagmires. China should not be a moralist preaching false liberties, democrazy or adding more fuel to the fire there.

Hold what is near and real interests, rather then grasp straws fighting shadow war that may not appreciate China later. Build more vital posts in South China Seas and refueling military bases, securing the newly establish ADIZ, fight the terrorisms in western region should be more then enough for this decade.

Blackstone said:

Would the "help" include boots on the ground that's not part of UN Peacekeeping missions?

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Doombreed said:

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The very probable answer is NO.

Besides from not having a good reason to get involved militarily or otherwise, a reality check is that China also does not have the power projection capability to independently sustain ground or air expeditionary forces that can reach and fight ISIS where they are.

The only possibility is a self-sufficient naval group with LACMs and a mix of Z-10s and Z-8s conducting limited bombardments and raids.

Better to just sell weapons that don't alter the regional balance too much when willing buyers come knocking.

The People's Republic has a clear and definite policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations.

The current Iraqi situation in particular is an outstanding example of the wisdom of this policy.

I see no valid or good reason for China to use its armed forces to intervene in this conflict.

Staying neutral also avoids the dilemma of having to choose sides, possibly alienating one or the other.

The USA should shoulder it's responsibility for the current situation in Iraq and fix what it broke.

Great Britain and France also bear much responsibility for inventing what is the current state of Iraq out of the pieces they carved from the Ottoman empire after the First World War.

This unhappy situation has no winners and too many losers.

Re: PLA in Iraq?

advill said:

I agree that the PLA will not risk becoming actively involved. Two reasons: 1. China has problems with a good number of its Muslim population in Xinjiang Province, some have carried out bombings in recent months. PLA militarily going against the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq & Syria) group in Iraq will therefore invite more problems for China i.e. step up of Foreign Islamists (Extremists) support of their Muslim separatists (Uighers etc.) in this Northern China Province. 2. Unlike the US and the Coalition Forces, the PLA is inexperienced in fighting this kind of insurgency warfare (suicide bombers, IED etc.), and I doubt militarily and politically China will want to be involved in the military quagmire. Yes, China will do all it can to evacuate its nationals. They will probably now be planning how to deal/negotiate with the ISIS if their oil fields investments are taken over by this Islamist group.

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You forget that the current terrorist problems in China very likely has roots in the Iraq/Syria quagmire. Therefore, it is to China's interests to wipe out ISIL.

No need for China to deploy its military. China can help by stepping up support for Assad. If Assad can crush the Islamists quickly in Syria, the ISIL will lose a significant chunk of its logistics base.