How many fighters does China have?

antiterror13 said:

It shows the author doesn't know what he/she is doing .. don't bother to read it

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Hmmm ... I hope he does (at least) know a bit what he's doing.

I agree that it is a big - huge or maybe unforgiving - mistake on my side but honestly this occured thru a last minute change of the cover on behalf of the publisher. On the first version the J-10 was overlayed over Hainan and as such not visible ....

For the final cover we are also thinking about adding the MR-borders and mayor capitals but since our new distributor for the US wanted a preview cover for his cummer-catalog within a few days

As such I apologise and I hope the content itself will be up to Your (and mine) expectations.

Deino

Deino said:

Maybe some here might be interested !!??

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Hope You will enjoy it !!

Deino

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Cool and Congratulations Deino.

the deliverys of Flankers from Russia is as follows

24 x Su-27 (18 Su-27SK and 6 Su-UBK) delivered in 1992
2 x Su-27UBK delivered also in 1992
24 x Su-27 (20 Su-27SK and 4 Su-27UBK) delivered in 1996-1997
28 x Su-27 UKB delivered in 2000-2002

total 78

and

38 x Su-30 MKK delivered in 2000-2001
38 x Su-30 MKK delivered in 2002-2003
24 x Su-30 MK2 delivered in 2004

total 100

The last 24 are MK2.

... and the first were 18 SU-27SK and 6 SU-27UBK
The second were 2 SU-27UBK
The third were 20 SU-27SK and 4 SU-27UBK
The fourth 28 SU-27UBK.

Thanks for additions guys, also of the 12 delivered on Nov 8th 1992, China also got the 2 Su-27 UKB, which were for research use

and to add in other the Flanker import, it is the T-10K-3, the 3rd prototype of Su-33, infact it was the first production Su-33 standard, which China imported from the Ukraine, which helped develop J15 from J11B

asif iqbal said:

Thanks for additions guys, also of the 12 delivered on Nov 8th 1992, China also got the 2 Su-27 UKB, which were for research use

and to add in other the Flanker import, it is the T-10K-3, the 3rd prototype of Su-33, infact it was the first production Su-33 standard, which China imported from the Ukraine, which helped develop J15 from J11B

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PLAAF should retire the first 95 odd SU-27 imported from Russia, it's just too obsolete. Or perhaps donate them to other countries

You mean as opposed to the 500 J-7s?

I know you'd like nothing more than to purge all the influence of the foreign devils from China, but there is what you want, and there is what's practicable.

antiterror13 said:

PLAAF should retire the first 95 odd SU-27 imported from Russia, it's just too obsolete. Or perhaps donate them to other countries

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large jets are like ships. whats important are the electronics inside. apart from that, theyre almost identical to even the latest su35. these planes are huge and can easily be upgraded to latest subsystems. thats why US is so confident in using even 30yr old F15s against their enemies.

I will start this post with an assumption: This new mystery plane will go into service with plaaf and planaf and will become a part of four tier system within plaaf. Heavy twin engined fighter (j20), medium twin fighter (this new plane) and j10b will be the cheap, non VLO platform for lower intensity situations. Alongside that, jh7 and its direct successor will round up the quartet.

That is a wild assumption, i know. But that's besides the point. This is what interests me:
Since so far we have seen jh7a being produced in xian, 190 airframes from 2002 to 2011. That averages out to 19 planes per year.
J11b has been produced by shengyang, so far some 140 airframes from 2006 to 2011. that averages out to 23 planes per year.
j10 has been produced by chengdu, some 210 airframes from 2003 to 2011. That is some 26 planes per year.

If we further assume that chengdu will go on producing j10b at similar pace, starting in 2013; add to that a conservative prediction of 12-16 j20s per year from 2018 onwards; assume that shenyang will be able to produce 23 newmystery plane airframes from 2020 and that xian will produce 19 next gen jh7 replacements per year, starting 2025, this is what plaaf/planaf composition may look like:

2020:
210 j10b
210 j10a
390 jh7/a
160 j11b
160 j16/j15 (probably 42-48 j15, 112-118 j16)
40 j20
plus the remaining older models, roughly:
150 j8 h/f
100 j11a
100 su30mkk
250 j7 e/g

total: 1770

It seems possible that chengdu would use some of its production capacity previously used for j10b to increase production of j20. Say 20 j20s and 16 j10bs per year. Also, jh7a replacement may be in production since 2025.

In 2030:
210 j10a
370 j10b
240 j20
410 jh7a
100 nextgen strike planes
160 j11b
190 j15/j16 (75-80 j15)
200 new mystery planes/carrier variants

total: 1880

New single engined plane may be in service from 2031., replacing j10b production, reverting back to 12-16 j20s, rest single engined planes.

In 2040:
370 j10b
200 nextgen single engined fighter
380 j20
210 jh7a
290 next gen strike planes
190 j15/j16
430 mystery planes/carrier variants

total: 2070


Of course, it is a little weird that in time when everyone cuts the number of their forces china would increase the number of its fighters. Thus it is very possible that by 2040. overall number will actually be closer to 1500 planes, meaning the production rates of all these new planes will be closer to 12 j20, 20 mystery planes, 24 j10b/single engined planes, 16 next gen strike planes etc.

Yeah, all this doesnt make much sense, other than to illustrate realistic production rates and total numbers in future fleets as a result of those production rates.