Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

Brumby said:

I presume you mean elected CE rather than nominated CE. The constitution cannot be amended without NPC. It is a non starter.

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Sorry, yes elected. I'll rectify the post.

Do you really think any truly anti-mainland CE backed by even a slight majority wouldn't seek to slowly undermine and ignore parts of HK's constitution?
They probably won't succeed probably due to some domestic HK backlash and PRC political, economic, and eventually military intervention, as I've mentioned -- but the idea is to prevent the seeds of such a crisis from being sown in the first place rather than trying to raze a potentially massive throng of weeds out later.

texx1 said:

Elected CE could create referendum demanding China to remove PLA presence.

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ummm no PLA is not under the jurisdiction of HKSAR, the whole city can vote unanimously to remove them and they wouldnt have to move an inch.

Brumby said:

Such statement shows ignorance of the Basic Law and the one country two systems arrangement. PLA cannot be removed because it is a defence policy. Defence does not come under the HKSAR administration. Such referendum is unconstitutional to begin with.

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What current OC protesters demanding can be considered unconstitutional as Beijing can say that their interpretation of Basic Law is that Standing committee has the final word on CE's election process. You are not a constitutional lawyer nor am I. We can't question this position legally. Also Basic law can be changed or renounced.

That is fictional reasoning without a dose of reality

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I hate to say this. But if you don't think that there is a possibility for HK to become a bastion of anti-china forces under a pro independence CE , you are the one who needs some doses of reality.

Please elaborate. I think such concerns by Beijing only exhibit an administration still ruling by fear rather than strength and being unsure of itself even though so much progress has been made economically and militarily.

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How is concerns about potential negatives translate into ruling by fear? Also all government at one time or another use fear as a tool, UK government use fear (fear of losing pensions, jobs, the pound, uncertainty) to convince Scots to stay within the Union.

Bltizo said:

Do you really think any truly anti-mainland CE backed by even a slight majority wouldn't seek to slowly undermine and ignore parts of HK's constitution?
They probably won't succeed probably due to some domestic HK backlash and PRC political, economic, and eventually military intervention, as I've mentioned -- but the idea is to prevent the seeds of such a crisis from being sown in the first place rather than trying to raze a potentially massive throng of weeds out later.

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It is an interesting question but a philosophical one in my view and so let's look at from that stand point rather than legally because we know that is totally in Beijing's hands. I think it is bad start or a serious problem in a marriage when you think from the outset your partner will become unfaithful. It affects ongoing interaction and the development of trust without which a relationship is then maintain based on some artificial mechanism. I think ultimately it is whether Beijing has matured in its outlook and the confidence in itself that its policies are as good and if not better than the alternatives out there. Does Beijing always want to manage out of fear or control even though the times have changed in its favour? Only Beijing can address this.

Brumby said:

It is an interesting question but a philosophical one in my view and so let's look at from that stand point rather than legally because we know that is totally in Beijing's hands. I think it is bad start or a serious problem in a marriage when you think from the outset your partner will become unfaithful. It affects ongoing interaction and the development of trust without which a relationship is then maintain based on some artificial mechanism. I think ultimately it is whether Beijing has matured in its outlook and the confidence in itself that its policies are as good and if not better than the alternatives out there. Does Beijing always want to manage out of fear or control even though the times have changed in its favour? Only Beijing can address this.

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In Beijing's calculus regarding the OC protest, this question is not philosophical. It's the only question.

Brumby said:

It is an interesting question but a philosophical one in my view and so let's look at from that stand point rather than legally because we know that is totally in Beijing's hands. I think it is bad start or a serious problem in a marriage when you think from the outset your partner will become unfaithful. It affects ongoing interaction and the development of trust without which a relationship is then maintain based on some artificial mechanism. I think ultimately it is whether Beijing has matured in its outlook and the confidence in itself that its policies are as good and if not better than the alternatives out there. Does Beijing always want to manage out of fear or control even though the times have changed in its favour? Only Beijing can address this.

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Basically the subject is about soft power.

It will take many decades until China's soft power (composed of social, economic, political, and military) has reached a point where it can both nullify the predominant western narrative of the world and also project its own.

Until then, it will need to retain a firm grip on HK.

To put it blatantly: China will have to counter western brainwashing with its own brainwashing.

Bltizo said:

Basically the subject is about soft power.

It will take many decades until China's soft power (composed of social, economic, political, and military) has reached a point where it can both nullify the predominant western narrative of the world and also project its own.

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Your guess is as good as mine and I have no idea. So we will leave it here.

Bltizo said:

To put it blatantly: China will have to counter western brainwashing with its own brainwashing.

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I find it amusing that the issue of western influence pops up so often in the discussion because that seldom come into my mind in that I am more accustomed to the fact that the society I am exposed too is more independent minded. The biggest problem I see in Western politics is the general indifference.

Is the idea of western influence such a major issue in HK or is it simply a convenient talking point?

Brumby said:

I find it amusing that the issue of western influence pops up so often in the discussion because that seldom come into my mind in that I am more accustomed to the fact that the society I am exposed too is more independent minded. The biggest problem I see in Western politics is the general indifference.

Is the idea of western influence such a major issue in HK or is it simply a convenient talking point?

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The moment western influence is no longer used to destabilize countries, regions and other people's lives in general, people would start treating it as a positive.

another day another strong-worded editorial from the People's Daily...third consecutive one. it almost makes me suspect that Beijing is up to something. one would think that if there is one lesson that Beijing has learned from Tiananmen, it'd be to not instigate unnecessary emotions through tough rhetoric, this time it looks like the Politburo really is pissed off.

pla101prc said:

ummm no PLA is not under the jurisdiction of HKSAR, the whole city can vote unanimously to remove them and they wouldnt have to move an inch.

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I am sure if comes to that. They will do another mass protest and demand concessions from Beijing.