Brumby
Major
I concur with your assessment. I think those who make those statements of Beijing intervention do not understand the political dynamics on the ground and the game plan of the players especially Beijing.
The primary outcome Beijing aims for in this whole debacle in my view is a peaceful resolution and quickly if possible. This whole show is an image cultivation exercise for Beijing to the world that Beijing is tolerant, acts with restrain and is upholding the promises of the Basic Law even under extreme provocation. Why would Beijing act especially calling in the PLA? It is a ridiculous notion unless the HKSAR administration totally screws up. We potentially saw that when they called in the riot squad and start using tear gas and pepper spray on the students. That quickly changed public opinion but they were wise enough to withdraw the riot squad. That must have cost Beijing some anxious moments. Beijing's main game plan is to stay on the sideline while officially offering complete support to HKSAR. In other words, the best strategy is to do nothing directly.
The OC movement made a strategic mistake of occupying Causeway Bay and Mong Kok. That eventually frustrated the business community which until the occupation was probably neutral. Beijing could see some sections of the population starting to push back. I think that was the tipping point and the OC movement had its moment but lost it. The other problem is that they have no end game plan besides pressing on.
The HKSAR game plan in my view is containment and to let the steam out from the student movement and then isolate them into a smaller section of Central where they can continue without causing too much disruption to the rest of the public. Eventually the hope is that they will run out of steam and purpose and just pack up and go home. I think the isolation strategy will come into play should the OC refuses to budge. The challenge for the authorities is to achieve the isolation and containment goal without screwing up i.e. using minimal force and not swaying public opinion.
The OC movement should recognise reality and adapt by doing the following :
(i)Tactically withdraw from Mong Kok and Causeway Bay if not already happening. This ensures immediate safety of the more vulnerable sections of the movement; reduces tension with the business community and general population; and most importantly consolidate their resources for a last stand in Central.
(ii)They have been terrible with messaging and PR. They need to step up and play the same game as Beijing i.e. projecting the necessary image and message to as broad a community as possible. There is no main spokesperson, no central message, and no updates.
(iii)Be prepared as there will be a lockdown including isolation of communication when the authorities move in. They should identify a refuge location to carry on within rule of law. If it becomes a long haul protest then they should adapt and rotate resources rather than concentrating resources
(iv)Have a set of plan B demands should the opportunity be there to negotiate.
