Has China already over-taken Russia in some sections of Military Avaiation ?

MiG-29 said:

PAKFA uses lots of nano technologies specially a new type of paint that reduces RCS considerably.

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All fifth generation fighters use RAM to reduce RCS. "Considerably" is a weasel word which doesn't tell us anything. The major consent is that RAM contributes little, with the biggest fraction in reduction of RCS comes from planform alignment and smooth curvature.

MiG-29 said:

Now the main critics it has is rounded aft nacelles and perhaps that the current prototypers might have not a radar blocker, however Russian reports seem to be working into advance Radar blockers and nano tecnologies to avoid the use of S ducts.

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They are unable to use S-ducts for some reasons, so they have to go with radar blockers, which isn't an elegant solution at all. This is hardly a sign of superiority.

MiG-29 said:

Russia currently builds and is developing engines for the An-124 and Tu-160 which are 20 tonnes thrust power and has two types of fifth generation engines.

So in engine design Russia and PAKFA are ahead of J-20.

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China's development of WS-15 engine for J-20 is nearing completion, and is also working on WS-18 plus another high bypass variant of WS-10 for its transportation aircraft. In terms of engine, PAKFA is not ahead of J-20.

MiG-29 said:

In aerodynamics Russia developed a first in LEVCON, so still ahead in aerodynamics.

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Use of LEVCON does not show Russia is ahead of aerodynamics. LEVCON allows the aircraft to manipulate the strength of vortex going over the wing, but lacks an important function of canard which is pitch control. This is why PAKFA also has tail planes. The anti-example of using LEVCON is the LCA and its dismal performance.

Soviet Union's fifth generation demonstrator was the Mig 1.44 which has a similar configuration with J-20. That's what Soviet Union actually wanted to go for. Having lost many talents since the breakup of Soviet Union, Sukhoi today can only go with a less risky and less rewarding approach, which is traditional configuration with LEVCON.

The configuration on PAKFA is actually similar to Shengyang's tri-plane proposal, but with the canard merged into wing. Shengyang's proposal was ultimately rejected in favor of J-20 because the latter was deem more superior after analysis were made.

MiG-29 said:

Missiles well Russia has R37 on MiG-31s and will fit longer range missiles into PAKFA, that makes Russia ahead in missie technology for fighters.

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China's PL-21 under development is similar to British's Meteror, which Russia has no equivalent.

MiG-29 said:

Now where i see China slightly ahead of Russia is UCAV development, but i am not sure.

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Russia is behind everyone on UAV, and we haven't heard any word about their strategic class UAV either. China already demonstrated capabilities to fire off ordnance from its UCAV, whereas UCAV will just remain as a goal for Russia in the next few years.

MiG-29 said:

China is behind to Russia, but in reality not by much and could potentially surpass Russia in one or two decades, if Russia fails to re-organize Ukraine into its side, however it seems Russia is still working with Ukraine on projects like An-148 and An-124, so is probable they will more or less matched in 30 years from now.

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Here's a reality check: China is not behind Russia. China is moving forward whereas Russia is still stagnated if not moving backward. The fact Russia military industry is resorting to bad mouthing China in military aviation reeks of insecurity. If Russia actually have anything good to offer, its products would have speak for itself.

MiG-29 said:

Ranking the BRIC nations is hard, but China is in a good position, but it is not ahead of any bric nation as a whole, they are pretty well matched in many areas.

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LOL!
Out of the BRIC nations, only China has a vibrant R&D and manufacturing sector for military aviation. China came up with JF-17, J-10, and JH-7 whereas Russia has nothing new during the same period. Russia is still pushing hard on its 30 year-old Flanker and Falcum designs, while India and Brazil have little capabilities.

Quickie said:

So in your bias mind, there's no Universities and Research Facilities, together with its scientists, researchers, engineers, in China? All the thousands of scientific papers they produce (much more than that of Russia) doesn't count for anything?

Btw, the Chinese designers of the ARJ-21 claim that everything of the aircraft are designed by them, including the wing. The russian facility was only responsible to churn out the experimental technical data.

And in regard to number of foreign sales, you simply can't compare apple and oranges. China's commercial aviation industry is comparatively much younger than those of other countries.

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Let us go by parts, i have never said China has no talent, they do have talent however i am saying all the BRICs power have the same capability in terms of high tech, i am saying Russia has indeed some advantages, which they do, that Russia is also advancing.

I am telling you, no one is totally independenty these day, no aircraft program is completly domestic not even F-22 and not even F-35.

You are equating power means total domestic technology, these days no one does that.

I am telling you nations like India, Russia and Brazil are more or less on par.

I said china is and will be a great power, but so is Russia or India or Brazil.

If China can make J-10, well so Brazil can make E-195. or India Kaveri, Russia these days is not completly self sufficient, and nevel will be, they need to cooperate.

The current Superjet has french input and western parts, but it does not mean Russia is i decay, Russia is still a great power.

MiG-29 said:

Let us go by parts, i have never said China has no talent, they do have talent however i am saying all the BRICs power have the same capability in terms of high tech, i am saying Russia has indeed some advantages, which they do, that Russia is also advancing.

I am telling you, no one is totally independenty these day, no aircraft program is completly domestic not even F-22 and not even F-35.

You are equating power means total domestic technology, these days no one does that.

I am telling you nations like India, Russia and Brazil are more or less on par.

I said china is and will be a great power, but so is Russia or India or Brazil.

If China can make J-10, well so Brazil can make E-195. or India Kaveri, Russia these days is not completly self sufficient, and nevel will be, they need to cooperate.

The current Superjet has french input and western parts, but it does not mean Russia is i decay, Russia is still a great power.

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That's the problem though, they don't all have the same capabilities. If you just look at the research, it's very apparent which countries are excelling where.

kwaigonegin said:

I think that pretty much sums up everything in this thread. China is slowly transitioning from imitators to innovators. Their potential to be dominant leader in science and technology will rival if not surpassed the US IF they play their cards right.

Assuming nothing cataclysmic happens, by mid century and certainly before the 22nd century is here, there is no reason why the Apples, Microsofts and Googles of that time will be Chinese companies or at least of Chinese origins. Same with the aviation industries wheater civilian or military.

The J-20 is significant because I think military historians of the future will look back at it as probably the turning point of chinese military aviation where it slowly move to achieve it's own independence from western designs and assistance.

I think we all can agree that their achilles heel in their aviation is in jet engines but I think it's only a matter of time before they become like the Pratt and Whitney, GE or Rolls Royce etc..

Scientific papers and R & D takes decades from publishing or breakthroughs to actual product development and manufacturing. I think the next few decades many of their investments in these areas will start to bear fruit in terms of tangible products with 100% chinese origins. We're just in the very beginning of things.

Those of you who are young enough (before 30) I think there's a good likelihood you'll live long enough to see 7, 8th maybe even 9th generation fighters (probably AI drones by then) and other aircraft of the PLAN that are 100% indigenious design and made just like the F4s, F15s, f16s, B 29s, B52s, B2s etc were when they came off the line.

With the fast changing world of global politics, who knows? maybe 50 yrs from now you'll see NATO flying Chinese made fighters! PRC may even be democracy by then!

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i agree with you, China will be a leader in Asia in many things and they are following a logic path, they imitate to catch up, but we live in a globalize world, if you analize these day no one does everything by him self India for example does design for Western nations.[video=youtube;OH5ArnaaKfI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OH5ArnaaKfI&feature=player_embedded[/video]

of course each nation has a set of troubles, but in 2020 design will be more much spread than the current nations.

Why research is not always done by governments but also private companies and this is usually not counted as a nation government effort.


Today`s boeing B-787 is a truely international project lead by the US, same is E-195 an international program lead by Brazil`s embraer, and Sukhoi superjet is the same, this slashes development costs and increases sales success

MiG-29 said:

If China can make J-10, well so Brazil can make E-195. or India Kaveri, Russia these days is not completly self sufficient, and nevel will be, they need to cooperate.

The current Superjet has french input and western parts, but it does not mean Russia is i decay, Russia is still a great power.

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The quoted part is what I have problem with.

1)
E-170/190 series benefited greatly from consultants that Embraers brought in from North America. someof them I personally know and are topnotch in the industry, with out access to talents like that they can not hope to have a winner like the Ejet series.
I am not saying it is all consultants , Embraer certainly has to work at it and has to have the capacity to use those talents. but with out which it would not be a success.

2) J-10 has no equivalent in BRICS outside of russia. and it is one order magnitude more difficult than civil airliner. they choose to focus on defense instead of civil aircraft for the last 30 years and that's the results. and the entire J-10 project is as self sufficient as it can get, it was designed to breed a domestic 3rd gen capability...from a largely 2nd gen base, in propulsion, avionics, vehicle, flight control and weapons systems.
and the program has largely met that goal.

3) India's Kaveri? come on I have seen alot their program reviews slides and I would say it is far far far from a mature product.

latenlazy said:

That's the problem though, they don't all have the same capabilities. If you just look at the research, it's very apparent which countries are excelling where.

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do a reseach of all the technologies Brazil, India or Russia have and you will see they are on par, be honest about the foreign input in China research programs and you will see a reality, they are more or less on par.

as far as Russian technology vs Chinese.

I just want to say one thing. it is not a single answer of which one is better than the other.
across categories each prob deserve scrutiny on its own.

But one thing I will say is: position vs rate.
they are not that far apart in position. and rate wise one is much greater than the other.

i.e. said:

The quoted part is what I have problem with.

1)
E-170/190 series benefited greatly from consultants that Embraers brought in from North America. someof them I personally know and are topnotch in the industry, with out access to talents like that they can not hope to have a winner like the Ejet series.
I am not saying it is all consultants , Embraer certainly has to work at it and has to have the capacity to use those talents. but with out which it would not be a success.

2) J-10 has no equivalent in BRICS outside of russia. and it is one order magnitude more difficult than civil airliner. they choose to focus on defense instead of civil aircraft for the last 30 years and that's the results. and the entire J-10 project is as self sufficient as it can get, it was designed to breed a domestic 3rd gen capability. and it has largely succeeded.

3) India's Kaveri? come on I have seen alot their program reviews slides and I would say it is far far far from a mature product.

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Embraer has no equivalent in Russia or China, only of ERJ-145 more than 900 have beeen built, E-170 has already a large production.

India is a democreacy and open they say Kaveri is not ready and itis true, but Chna still buys Al-31s and engines from Ukraine to power L-15, what does it mean WS-10 is not ready yet

Look Russia's economy right now is a monoculture of energy export. This is not an economy that can support world class R&D. It still has the edge in many fields but that is a carry over from the Soviet Union. It won't last.

I can guarantee you that this will be an irrelevant debate 10 years down the road.

MiG-29 said:

Let us go by parts, i have never said China has no talent, they do have talent however i am saying all the BRICs power have the same capability in terms of high tech, i am saying Russia has indeed some advantages, which they do, that Russia is also advancing.

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Fact: they don't have the same capability. For example, Brazil and India cannot make usable jet engines. Brazil has no jet fighter industry whereas India only made the shell for its own LCA. And what avionics such as radar do Brazil and India produce?

MiG-29 said:

I am telling you, no one is totally independenty these day, no aircraft program is completly domestic not even F-22 and not even F-35.

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F-35 has foreign inputs because it is meant to be a joint project. It is part of the agreement for the US to get these other countries on board. Even so, critical components such as engine, flight control system, and radar are all provided from the US. The US is fully capable of equipping F-35 if foreign suppliers were to cease operation tomorrow. As for F-22, it is meant to be a pure American fighter so nearly all components are made in the US. F-22 is very much an independent project.

MiG-29 said:

You are equating power means total domestic technology, these days no one does that.

I am telling you nations like India, Russia and Brazil are more or less on par.

I said china is and will be a great power, but so is Russia or India or Brazil.

If China can make J-10, well so Brazil can make E-195. or India Kaveri, Russia these days is not completly self sufficient, and nevel will be, they need to cooperate.

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You are grasping at straws. E-195 is not a jet fighter like J-10. Brazil and India have no equivalent of J-10, thus BRIC nations are not at the same level in military aviation. Kaveri is not anywhere close to being able to power a jet, unlike WS-9, WS-10, and WS-13; another example illustrating BRIC nations are not at the same level in military aviation.

Self-sufficiency is the key. Russia is still self-sufficient. China already became self-sufficient, and if Russia were to cut Al-31 and RD-33, China can still produce JF-17 and J-10 with WS-13 and WS-10. Brazil and India are not self sufficient, so they cannot be said to be on par with China and Russia. Your statement is therefore incorrect.

MiG-29 said:

The current Superjet has french input and western parts, but it does not mean Russia is i decay, Russia is still a great power.

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Russia's aerospace sector being in decay is a fact. As for Superjet, it is full of foreign components and it is no better than the ARJ-21. If ARJ-21 using foreign components is a sign that China's military aviation is behind, then the same can be said of Russia's military aviation.