H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

Blitzo

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Hard to say, but I think Grassroot's design was meant to fit a bigger weapons bay.

Quite possibly. My main point was just that both Grassroot and Baiwei's interpretations were pretty valid based on how little we have to go on.


TBH, I really think any viability for such a design rests on the WS-15.

Same could be said for J-20 :p

Though I think a notional JH-XX equipped with WS-10s could still be quite useful... even if an JH-XX with WS-10s is unable to supercruise, I think it could still do supersonic dash with afterburner, and remember it would still be a relatively long range, stealthy aircraft able to hold (I expect) standoff weapons.


Payload. That's the problem. How much payload would you have to sacrifice to use inferior engines? Would the sacrifice in payload make the design worthwhile to bring into service in a limited form? It may not even be worth considering until they can develop a fully capable design given the multitude of other projects they're currently juggling.

I think payload wouldn't be so much of an issue as speed, for a supersonic bomber. They can take off with full afterburner using inferior engines, if necessary, to allow the aircraft to get airborne with its intended payload.
 

JayBird

Junior Member
Even if this project is live, it may be internal within a department as a concept, not as a project the PLA is currently interested in. Many possible stages that could lead to mockups and designs before a project is actually picked up.

EDIT: Oh god, I have committed the unfathomable. I triple posted. Sorry...

With all the East and South China sea drama and pivot to Asia thing. Maybe the higher up of the PRC is re-thinking the urgency and necessity of such aircraft like JH-XX. It's kind of like the "extra" 001A carrier thinking that before they are willing to wait, but then change their mind because of the changing of the international environment.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Though I think a notional JH-XX equipped with WS-10s could still be quite useful... even if an JH-XX with WS-10s is unable to supercruise, I think it could still do supersonic dash with afterburner, and remember it would still be a relatively long range, stealthy aircraft able to hold (I expect) standoff weapons.
I think payload wouldn't be so much of an issue as speed, for a supersonic bomber.

Payload and speed are related problems. They're both limited by thrust. Not having enough forces you to choose. Standoff weapons + internal bays are heavy. That becomes a thrust problem. Plus, I think a standoff strike plane that can launch large missiles at supersonic speeds is a very popular concept, but I'm dubious that the PLA would value those capabilities more than being able to strike deep behind enemy lines.

EDIT: To follow up a bit more on the last point, I don't think they're the capability the PLA is most interested in in part because they have other platforms that can perform supersonic stand off launches, and stealth isn't the most important capability for stand off capabilities.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
With all the East and South China sea drama and pivot to Asia thing. Maybe the higher up of the PRC is re-thinking the urgency and necessity of such aircraft like JH-XX. It's kind of like the "extra" 001A carrier thinking that before they are willing to wait, but then change their mind because of the changing of the international environment.
Such pivots are dramatically overstated (as are the current "shifts" in international environment), and would realistically take years and years of build up before priorities would have to shift that drastically. Besides, anyone who says the PLA is making decisions based on such "shifts" have basically missed that they have been meaning to develop in the direction they are going for at least two decades. Either way, there's more than one way to skin a cat, and I don't think a supersonic stealth striker would be the most important capability they would need to focus on if tensions did escalate and conflict became more imminent.
 
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Blitzo

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Payload and speed are related problems. They're both limited by thrust. Not having enough forces you to choose. Standoff weapons + internal bays are heavy. That becomes a thrust problem. Plus, I think a standoff strike plane that can launch large missiles at supersonic speeds is a very popular concept, but I'm dubious that the PLA would value those capabilities more than being able to strike deep behind enemy lines.

Yes, payload and speed are related problems, but what I'm saying is that they can potentially be solved in different ways.
For instance, the problem with payload can be solved if one has a long enough runway and if one's willing to use full wet thrust with every takeoff (depending on what the actual thrust of the inferior engines are I suppose) -- the goal is to get airborne with the payload in the first place.
But for speed (outside of transit time to and from the target) for a supersonic bomber (even one which is stealthy), is very much important to its survivability depending on how it is used, and the ability to survive/run from pursuing interceptors is not as easily achieved as simply "lengthen runway + afterburner". I suppose the aircraft could potentially dump fuel to reduce its weight, but that would also reduce its ability to get back home. If they haven't dropped weapons yet, they could also dump their payload to try and get away as well. But this just illustrates my point, where it is potentially far easier to take off with a large payload on inferior engines, than it is to attain high speed when confronted with the opfor with inferior engines

Personally I see stand off weapons as an increasing necessity in future, even for "deep behind enemy lines" strikes, simply because of the kind of opponents China will be facing. They'll have AEW&C, CAP, SAMs, such that even if all of those things are degraded a little, the risk of putting an actual high cost bomber within even a couple dozen kilometers of a target with half decent defenses to drop unpowered weapons, is probably too great and they would be better off using stand off weapons to add a few hundred km to keep the launch platform safe.

That is why I believe the air force seems to have preferred various KD-88 variants as stand off weapons for their JH-7/A fleet and explains why they only have LT-2 as the only unpowered, short range PGM they have.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Yes, payload and speed are related problems, but what I'm saying is that they can potentially be solved in different ways.
For instance, the problem with payload can be solved if one has a long enough runway and if one's willing to use full wet thrust with every takeoff (depending on what the actual thrust of the inferior engines are I suppose) -- the goal is to get airborne with the payload in the first place.
But for speed (outside of transit time to and from the target) for a supersonic bomber (even one which is stealthy), is very much important to its survivability depending on how it is used.
Longer runways and using wet thrust to launch with bigger payloads all mean you would be sacrificing range, as well as potential top speed.

EDIT: The points you elaborated on about missing top speed and its potential perils is precisely why I'm skeptical they could pull this off with less than adequate engines.

Personally I see stand off weapons as an increasing necessity in future, even for "deep behind enemy lines" strikes, simply because of the kind of opponents China will be facing. They'll have AEW&C, CAP, SAMs, such that even if all of those things are degraded a little, the risk of putting an actual high cost bomber within even a couple dozen kilometers of a target with half decent defenses to drop unpowered weapons, is probably too great and they would be better off using stand off weapons to add a few hundred km to keep the launch platform safe.

That is why I believe the air force seems to have preferred various KD-88 variants as stand off weapons for their JH-7/A fleet and explains why they only have LT-2 as the only unpowered, short range PGM they have.
I'm not trying to mitigate the importance of stand off strikes. As I said in my edit, my skepticism is more rooted in redundancy of capabilities. They don't necessarily need a stealthy supersonic striker to achieve those kinds of stand off capabilities. Stealth+supersonic is very very nice to have, but it's less of a necessity, and, furthermore, the value of that combination rests on the point about engines, which suggests going with suboptimal engines wouldn't be an option. The point about JH-7s and KD-88s gets to that point.

As for strikes behind enemy lines, I was actually thinking fixed targets (since I think in a full blown conflict the US would need to secure land for logistics and supply chains to sustain any fighting effort).
 
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Blitzo

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Longer runways and using wet thrust to launch with bigger payloads all mean you would be sacrificing range, as well as potential top speed.

Yep, and that was mostly to illustrate that it's easier to potentially allow an aircraft with underpowered engines to get airborne with an intended payload (with less consequences to achieve it and without excessively high consequences if it is not achieved), and harder for an aircraft with underpowered engines to reach a desired speed with an intended payload in an egress situation when pursued by the opfor (and with more significant consequences to achieve a desired egress speed, and with the loss of the aircraft being the high consequence if a desired speed is not achieved).

Of course there's various ways to mitigate things to achieve an acceptable payload and acceptable speed for an aircraft with less powerful engines as well -- just change its doctrine and SOP in use.


EDIT: The points you elaborated on about missing top speed and its potential perils is precisely why I'm skeptical they could pull this off with less than adequate engines.

Standoff weapons + change in SOP, such as using such bombers against slightly less well defended targets or maybe operating alongside dedicated EW or fighter escort or whatever.


I'm not trying to mitigate the importance of stand off strikes. As I said in my edit, my skepticism is more rooted in redundancy of capabilities. They don't necessarily need a stealthy supersonic striker to achieve those kinds of stand off capabilities. Stealth+supersonic is very very nice to have, but it's less of a necessity, and, furthermore, the value of that combination rests on the point about engines, which suggests going with suboptimal engines wouldn't be an option. The point about JH-7s and KD-88s gets to that point.

Hmmm it depends on what the range of the weapons are, and what the distance to the target is.
For instance, if they conceivably develop a 300km class stand off cruise missile ala JSM, they will still have to have an aircraft that can travel to 300km away from the target in an undetected/stealthy manner to reduce warning time for the enemy, and if the target is 800km away, then that's a 500km combat radius assuming you launch your missile at the edge of its envelope, and that is 500km where a JH-7/A or J-16 won't cut it as they'll be detected well before they get within launch range anyway (and intercepted ofc)

OTOH, if one has a 3000km class cruise missile like CJ-10 and you're trying to hit a target 800km away, then you obviously won't need your launch platform to leave your own airspace at all (one doesn't even necessarily need an aerial launch platform to begin with!) -- but there are obviously still missions where a bomber+stand off weapon is preferred compared to only long range surface launched cruise missile (both of which would be very useful in high intensity scenarios), and obviously there are also situations where bomber+unpowered PGM is useful as well, but I think most of those are relegated to lower intensity conflicts.


As for strikes behind enemy lines, I was actually thinking fixed targets (since I think in a full blown conflict the US would need to secure land for logistics and supply chains to sustain any fighting effort).

I think that regardless of whether the targets are fixed or mobile, in any high intensity conflict that China gets into, it would be preferable to use stand off weapons, simply because of how formidable the enemy will be. China cannot guarantee successful air superiority or anything near complete SEAD when conducting offensive strikes against the kind of foes they're looking to face, especially behind enemy lines, so any way in which they can reduce the risk to an aerial launch platform should be considered, so long as it does not compromise the mission's core objectives.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
Of course there's various ways to mitigate things to achieve an acceptable payload and acceptable speed for an aircraft with less powerful engines as well -- just change its doctrine and SOP in use.

Standoff weapons + change in SOP, such as using such bombers against slightly less well defended targets or maybe operating alongside dedicated EW or fighter escort or whatever.
Which gets back to the question of whether other platforms could adequately fulfill that role more cheaply/without requiring further development. At some point you change the doctrine to fit the limited capabilities so much that you derive back to capabilities you already have.


Hmmm it depends on what the range of the weapons are, and what the distance to the target is.
For instance, if they conceivably develop a 300km class stand off cruise missile ala JSM, they will still have to have an aircraft that can travel to 300km away from the target in an undetected/stealthy manner to reduce warning time for the enemy, and if the target is 800km away, then that's a 500km combat radius assuming you launch your missile at the edge of its envelope, and that is 500km where a JH-7/A or J-16 won't cut it as they'll be detected well before they get within launch range anyway (and intercepted ofc)

OTOH, if one has a 3000km class cruise missile like CJ-10 and you're trying to hit a target 800km away, then you obviously won't need your launch platform to leave your own airspace at all (one doesn't even necessarily need an aerial launch platform to begin with!) -- but there are obviously still missions where a bomber+stand off weapon is preferred compared to only long range surface launched cruise missile (both of which would be very useful in high intensity scenarios), and obviously there are also situations where bomber+unpowered PGM is useful as well, but I think most of those are relegated to lower intensity conflicts.
It's unlikely that current standoff options wouldn't have assistance against early warning systems or escorts to deal with interceptors. Of course, a supersonic stealth striker is easier, but you'd have to develop it first, and my original contention was that it wouldn't be worth developing if it couldn't meet both optimal payload and speed requirements. At the end of the day even if it can get closer without requiring assists due to stealth, if it can't dash back before it's intercepted (either because it ranges out due to heavier payload or because of speed limitations) it's little better than the capabilities the PLA is already fielding.

I think that regardless of whether the targets are fixed or mobile, in any high intensity conflict that China gets into, it would be preferable to use stand off weapons, simply because of how formidable the enemy will be. China cannot guarantee successful air superiority or anything near complete SEAD when conducting offensive strikes against the kind of foes they're looking to face, especially behind enemy lines, so any way in which they can reduce the risk to an aerial launch platform should be considered, so long as it does not compromise the mission's core objectives.
High intensity conflicts are defined by suboptimal choices, not preferable ones. Stand off weapons are nice and important capabilities, but you can't rely on them exclusively.
 

Blitzo

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Which gets back to the question of whether other platforms could adequately fulfill that role more cheaply/without requiring further development. At some point you change the doctrine to fit the limited capabilities so much that you derive back to capabilities you already have.

Hard to really discuss this without knowing what kind of performance is deemed acceptable for the aircraft with interim vs intended engines, how long they would have to wait for actual engines, etc.


It's unlikely that current standoff options wouldn't have assistance against early warning systems or escorts to deal with interceptors. Of course, a supersonic stealth striker is easier, but you'd have to develop it first, and my original contention was that it wouldn't be worth developing if it couldn't meet both optimal payload and speed requirements. At the end of the day even if it can get closer without requiring assists due to stealth, if it can't dash back before it's intercepted (either because it ranges out due to heavier payload or because of speed limitations) it's little better than the capabilities the PLA is already fielding.

Like I said above, it depends on how long they would have to wait for intended engines vs interim ones, and how much more inferior the interim engines are, and also how much they would have to compromise speed and payload using interim engines in the first place.

If the degree of compromise in speed and payload is not unacceptably great (when using interim engines), and if the use of interim engines is only for an acceptably short projected time period, then it may well be worth to develop such an aircraft. And vice versa of course. And yes, they'll have to compare to see if using the same amount of money for other similar capabilities (such as buying more H-6Ks, or J-16s or conventional IRBMs or LACMs) could be equally or more worthwhile, as well as assessing the kind of threat they're projecting to face once development and induction could conceivably be finished.

I think we're technically in agreement here, just sitting on different sides of the coin.


High intensity conflicts are defined by suboptimal choices, not preferable ones. Stand off weapons are nice and important capabilities, but you can't rely on them exclusively.

That would depend on what kind of opponent you're facing and how much risk you're willing to take. I'm of the opinion that given the kind of foes China will be looking to face, China would either have to do a very good job of SEAD and OCA to reduce the risk enough to conduct non-stand-off strikes against targets deep in enemy territory, even from a stealth aircraft.

In other words, I think stand off weapons would have to be relied upon exclusively if the opposing side still has a viable air defence capability, and assuming China would prefer to minimize risk to its expensive, manned, launch platform.
 
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