H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 6, 2022

Bltizo said:
Because against the PLA, the B-1 is slightly more survivable than B-52.

For the PLA against the US, a supersonic bomber will not be much more survivable than a subsonic bomber.

Because of the respective missions they were tasked with during the US war on terror where the B-1 was given more of a CAS function than the B-52 which retained its nuclear deterrent role.

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I think you are vastly underestimating the cost, complexity and time needed for such a venture.

If they could somehow get such a project done and finished within 2-3 years, sure it might be worth the money.

But given the complexity of those airframes and given the scale of the modifications you describe, it will probably be closer to 10 years.

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Yeah I know questionable source but there's some good info there.

1. In 2011 B-52s got modernized electronics and Link 16. It cost $12 billion USD. It was done in time for the next upgrade.

2. In 2019 B-52s had a new radar contract. They had their old radar replaced with an AESA. Contracts awarded in 2019, project starts delivery 2023.

3. Now they're starting a weapons integration program. That will take 10 years.

China's MIC typically moves faster than US. Russian MIC moves slowly due to lack of funding. With Chinese funding, it'll go faster.

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Program started in 2014, already delivering.

Blitzo · Mar 6, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
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Yeah I know questionable source but there's some good info there.

1. In 2011 B-52s got modernized electronics and Link 16. It cost $12 billion USD. It was done in time for the next upgrade.

2. In 2019 B-52s had a new radar contract. They had their old radar replaced with an AESA. Contracts awarded in 2019, project starts delivery 2023.

3. Now they're starting a weapons integration program. That will take 10 years.

China's MIC typically moves faster than US. Russian MIC moves slowly due to lack of funding. With Chinese funding, it'll go faster.

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Program started in 2014, already delivering.

So you want China to buy off the shelf old Russian Tu-22M3 airframes, and you want Russia to upgrade them and then for China to upgrade the avionics suite and integrate Chinese munitions?

That sounds even more unlikely -- China buying old Russian airframes and trying to make sure everything is on spec and able to be properly upgraded with Chinese subsystems and avionics and weapons (all in an entirely new airframe type to China with its own airframe and powerplant logistics and support system) will not be either cheap or quick or simple.

And this is all assuming Russia is interested in selling their Tu-22M airframes to begin with.

The amount of effort, money and time that has to be expended for such a proposal is just not really worth it -- frankly it would be better to continue with H-20 (which by all accounts is proceeding at its expected pace), and to develop newer and more capable weapons for the H-6K family.

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 6, 2022

Bltizo said:
So you want China to buy off the shelf old Russian Tu-22M3 airframes, and you want Russia to upgrade them and then for China to upgrade the avionics suite and integrate Chinese munitions?

That sounds even more unlikely -- China buying old Russian airframes and trying to make sure everything is on spec and able to be properly upgraded with Chinese subsystems and avionics and weapons (all in an entirely new airframe type to China with its own airframe and powerplant logistics and support system) will not be either cheap or quick or simple.

And this is all assuming Russia is interested in selling their Tu-22M airframes to begin with.

The amount of effort, money and time that has to be expended for such a proposal is just not really worth it -- frankly it would be better to continue with H-20 (which by all accounts is proceeding at its expected pace), and to develop newer and more capable weapons for the H-6K family.

As of right now there's no indication that H-20 is proceeding at its expected pace because there's no flight testing or known subsystems testing yet. In the absence of information none of us know what to expect. Indeed the fact we've seen snippets of much more advanced systems like WZ-8, Darksword, etc. but nothing from H-20 is an indication that the project is stalled.

This is just giving an estimated cost and development timeline as the limit of how much it'd cost. Of course this is assuming Russia wants to either allow ToT licensed production for the Tu-22M airframe that China pays IP rights for, or restart production to sell at Chinese specifications, as an alternative stopgap measure.

Hyper · Mar 6, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
As of right now there's no indication that H-20 is proceeding at its expected pace because there's no flight testing or known subsystems testing yet. In the absence of information none of us know what to expect. Indeed the fact we've seen snippets of much more advanced systems like WZ-8, Darksword, etc. but nothing from H-20 is an indication that the project is stalled.

This is just giving an estimated cost and development timeline as the limit of how much it'd cost. Of course this is assuming Russia wants to either allow ToT licensed production for the Tu-22M airframe that China pays IP rights for, or restart production to sell at Chinese specifications, as an alternative stopgap measure.

No bullshit . Probably the extremely risky and over ambitious project like dark sword is stalled.

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 6, 2022

Hyper said:
No bullshit . Probably the extremely risky and over ambitious project like dark sword is stalled.

at least it is known that it is (under some variants) under flight testing while H-20 has not even begun testing, thus we must assume it is still in design or component validation stage.

AndrewS · Mar 6, 2022

james smith esq said:
I was, and still am, of the opinion that China should have gone for a shorter-ranged, subsonic, VLO bomber designed specifically for missile strikes within the 2d Island Chain. Most, here, beat me up over that opinion, arguing vehemently to convince themselves that I was incorrect. Oh well, they did convince me!

You're talking about a handful of islands and bases in the Second Island Chain.

And my read is that the H-20 combat radius suits these targets anyway. The H-20s would be based 1000-2000km from the Chinese cost in the Chinese interior and then would have sufficient (but not excessive) range.

Blitzo · Mar 6, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
As of right now there's no indication that H-20 is proceeding at its expected pace because there's no flight testing or known subsystems testing yet. In the absence of information none of us know what to expect. Indeed the fact we've seen snippets of much more advanced systems like WZ-8, Darksword, etc. but nothing from H-20 is an indication that the project is stalled.

I'm not sure why you think H-20 is stalled.
H-20 is arguably one of the most important and secretive projects in Chinese aviation history, and everything we know about it since the late 2000s is that it was not expected to fly until the early 2020s.
Given the aircraft has not yet been "revealed" -- and it hasn't made its maiden flight -- naturally we do not know anything about the details of the developmental work that has been going on for it.
But that is also the case for many various important projects in the past that were also less important.
In the late 2000s before J-20 was unveiled and in the early 2010s before Y-20 was unveiled, the information we had at the time was all broadly similar to what we know about H-20 right now.

A 2023 maiden flight as currently projected would mean the aircraft would enter service in the late 2020s, a few years before 2030, which seems very reasonable to me.

Furthermore, systems like WZ-8 and Dark Sword are not more advanced than H-20 -- a stealthy strategic bomber like H-20 is one of the most complex aerospace projects that a nation can undertake.

FairAndUnbiased said:
This is just giving an estimated cost and development timeline as the limit of how much it'd cost. Of course this is assuming Russia wants to either allow ToT licensed production for the Tu-22M airframe that China pays IP rights for, or restart production to sell at Chinese specifications, as an alternative stopgap measure.

All of those will just add even more complexity, and consume more time, aerospace resources, and money.

I don't see how such a project would result in a flyable aircraft much faster than when H-20 is likely to enter service.

Deino · Mar 6, 2022

FairAndUnbiased said:
at least it is known that it is (under some variants) under flight testing while H-20 has not even begun testing, thus we must assume it is still in design or component validation stage.

Since when is the dark sword "under flight testing!? From all we know we have some air show models, fan-made CGs, one image showing allegedly a mock up and one faked image of its alleged flight..

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 6, 2022

Bltizo said:
I'm not sure why you think H-20 is stalled.
H-20 is arguably one of the most important and secretive projects in Chinese aviation history, and everything we know about it since the late 2000s is that it was not expected to fly until the early 2020s.
Given the aircraft has not yet been "revealed" -- and it hasn't made its maiden flight -- naturally we do not know anything about the details of the developmental work that has been going on for it.
But that is also the case for many various important projects in the past that were also less important.
In the late 2000s before J-20 was unveiled and in the early 2010s before Y-20 was unveiled, the information we had at the time was all broadly similar to what we know about H-20 right now.

A 2023 maiden flight as currently projected would mean the aircraft would enter service in the late 2020s, a few years before 2030, which seems very reasonable to me.

Furthermore, systems like WZ-8 and Dark Sword are not more advanced than H-20 -- a stealthy strategic bomber like H-20 is one of the most complex aerospace projects that a nation can undertake.

All of those will just add even more complexity, and consume more time, aerospace resources, and money.

I don't see how such a project would result in a flyable aircraft much faster than when H-20 is likely to enter service.

Looking at US B-2 and B-21 development timeline, H-20 is, if progressing at all, doing so at a glacial pace, especially when there's previous examples to look at.

B-2 development officially began in 1979 and delivered a flying prototype in 1989.
B-21 development officially began in 2014 and is due for a test flight in 2022-2023.

Let's look at conventional bombers.

Original Tu-22M3 project: 1964 proposal, 1969 first flight. 5 years.
Original B-1A project: 1969 proposal, 1974 first flight. 5 years.

This shows us that it takes 5-10 years from project proposal to first flight for a bomber. H-20 is far behind.

If H-20 was known in the 2000's - let's say 2009 - then it's already overdue by at least 3 years.

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 6, 2022

Deino said:
Since when is the dark sword "under flight testing!? From all we know we have some air show models, fan-made CGs, one image showing allegedly a mock up and one faked image of its alleged flight..

OK, apologies. I misspoke. GJ-11 was at least taxiing under its own power as Sharpsword.

You are correct, Darksword has only airshow models.

H-20 does not even have airshow models, only internal models, which shows that it is still very immature.

H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

FairAndUnbiased

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Blitzo

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Hyper

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AndrewS

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