No, it only shows it is TOP-SECRET on an even higher level than the GJ-11 Sharp Sword!
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
No, it only shows it is TOP-SECRET on an even higher level than the GJ-11 Sharp Sword!
hopefully, but going by prior project track records I am not hopeful.
Russia and US both were able to develop conventional bombers from proposal to first flight in 5 years, US was able to develop stealth bombers in 10 years repeatably.
No, I'm sorry but that's a terrible take.
We "knew" that China was pursuing a stealth bomber since like the 2000s.
But we do not know when proper developmental work on the "H-20 project" began. Knowing that an aircraft of "approximate type/configuration/role" will eventually be developed is different to when a project officially begins receiving funding for developmental work.
For comparison -- the USAF started publicly talking about the "Next Generation Bomber" as a program back in the early 2000s, which then evolved to "Long Range Strike Bomber" around 2010, which then became with contract awarded in 2015 to Northrop and then it received the B-21 designation, with first flight expected in the next year or so.
But that doesn't mean the B-21 as a project took 20 years to develop -- because the project and the contract itself was only awarded in the last half decade or so.
The same is for H-20 -- we've known that the PLA would've looked into studies for a strategic stealth bomber since the 2000s, and they likely would've done substantial pre-research work into the science that would allow H-20 to be developed.
However, in terms of actually starting the development of the H-20 as a project, that likely occurred far later.
In fact, seeing as you raised this point, the H-20 as a project was rumoured to have only really properly began after Y-20's development was strongly underway and after its maiden flight (late 2013), which makes substantial sense given both Y-20 and H-20 are products of XAC, and chances are they only had aerospace resources to properly develop one project at a time, and they only started true development work on H-20 probably in 2013-2014.
Ok then we'll see by 2024. My prediction: H-20 will still be a dream even because XAC has other projects: Y-20U tanker, KJ-3000 AWAC on the Y-20 platform, Y-9Q ASW. China will still be relying on H-6K as a bomber. I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
Well yes, China will of course not have H-20 in service until in the late 2020s. But that is when it could have reasonably been expected to emerge anyway.
In any case, H-20 is currently the highest priority project for XAC since Y-20 development was finished/made its maiden flight, I'm not sure why you would think otherwise.
- Y-20U development has already finished -- in fact, it made its maiden flight in 2018, and the first airframes entered service in 2021.
- KJ-3000 is a project that we do not definitively know if it is being pursued or not, and even if it is being pursued, it is merely just a modified variant of the existing and mature Y-20 airframe, and will not consumed anything near the aerospace engineering resources needed from XAC. If anything, XAC will just be the contractor for the final assembly of the subsystems, but much of the developmental work for a notional KJ-3000's major subsystems will be one of the major electronics/avionics institutes and not XAC themselves.
- Y-9Q (like all other Y-8/9 aircraft and variants) isn't a product of XAC -- it's a product of Shaanxi lol
I think XAC should have way too many spare engineers besides the ones required for the H-20 project.
Unless a substantial part of them moved to COMAC I think there may be other projects we are not aware of.
Just consider this. At one point XAC had the following programs all going at the same time. Y-20, H-6K, JH-7A, ARJ-21, MA600, Y-9. Of those Y-20 and H-6K could be considered to take similar engineering resource to all new aircraft. Y-9 might have required similar effort to H-6K. ARJ-21 and MA600 were also new aircraft. JH-7A was a small redesign.
Unless a substantial part of them moved to COMAC I think there may be other projects we are not aware of.
Just consider this. At one point XAC had the following programs all going at the same time. Y-20, H-6K, JH-7A, ARJ-21, MA600, Y-9. Of those Y-20 and H-6K could be considered to take similar engineering resource to all new aircraft. Y-9 might have required similar effort to H-6K. ARJ-21 and MA600 were also new aircraft. JH-7A was a small redesign.
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Do people understand what a big jump it is to go from H-6 to H-20? China is basically skipping 2 generations to go from H-6K to a modern stealth bomber. It's a really large capabilities jump. China is essentially looking to go from a shorter ranged/payload B-52 to a shorter ranged/payload B-21.
Grummen was awarded the B-21 project in 2015 and it still has yet to have a first flight with it (despite building multiple prototypes). Even if it does its first flight this year, it's unlikely to achieve IOC before 2030. Keep in mind that it took 8 years for B-2 to go from first prototype flight to IOC status. If we anticipate NG to take this many years to achieve IOC with B-21, why are we expecting SAC to get there sooner? XAC probably started looking into this project early on, but it was only able to fully devote energy on this by probably mid 2010s. This is a huge undertaking. I cannot think of another project in PLA history of greater difficulty level. It's a bigger leap than going from J-7 to J-10 with CAC. It's a greater leap than J-20. It's not going to be ready for LRIP anytime soon. In terms of capability jump, only development of J-20 can be compared to H-20.
I don't understand why PLA would want to draw resource from other projects to localize and produce an inferior bomber? Tu-22M is no longer in production with Russia. Russia hasn't built any Tu-22M for 30 years. It would take several years for Russia to just restart/ramp up its production line for backfire and even longer for China with no prior experience to do the same. By the time that China figures out how to localize it and integrate its own electronics/missiles/bombs with it, H-20 will almost be ready. And what kind of additional capabilities are you getting with Tu-22M? You still don't want to use it to attack USN carrier groups. In general, you want to have your fighter jets do that or provide coordinates for surface warship or submarines to be launch the missiles. It doesn't offer additional ground attack capabilities over H-6. What purpose does it serve? PLA had the opportunity to do this back in 2005 and it didn't want it. Why would it want this aircraft now when H-20 is around the corner and when they already have a large fleet of H-6K+?
Grummen was awarded the B-21 project in 2015 and it still has yet to have a first flight with it (despite building multiple prototypes). Even if it does its first flight this year, it's unlikely to achieve IOC before 2030. Keep in mind that it took 8 years for B-2 to go from first prototype flight to IOC status. If we anticipate NG to take this many years to achieve IOC with B-21, why are we expecting SAC to get there sooner? XAC probably started looking into this project early on, but it was only able to fully devote energy on this by probably mid 2010s. This is a huge undertaking. I cannot think of another project in PLA history of greater difficulty level. It's a bigger leap than going from J-7 to J-10 with CAC. It's a greater leap than J-20. It's not going to be ready for LRIP anytime soon. In terms of capability jump, only development of J-20 can be compared to H-20.
I don't understand why PLA would want to draw resource from other projects to localize and produce an inferior bomber? Tu-22M is no longer in production with Russia. Russia hasn't built any Tu-22M for 30 years. It would take several years for Russia to just restart/ramp up its production line for backfire and even longer for China with no prior experience to do the same. By the time that China figures out how to localize it and integrate its own electronics/missiles/bombs with it, H-20 will almost be ready. And what kind of additional capabilities are you getting with Tu-22M? You still don't want to use it to attack USN carrier groups. In general, you want to have your fighter jets do that or provide coordinates for surface warship or submarines to be launch the missiles. It doesn't offer additional ground attack capabilities over H-6. What purpose does it serve? PLA had the opportunity to do this back in 2005 and it didn't want it. Why would it want this aircraft now when H-20 is around the corner and when they already have a large fleet of H-6K+?
I agree that the H-20 is a huge technological leap. But the truth is much of the technology in a Tu-160 or B-1 would not apply at all to a stealth flying wing. China does not even have any variable geometry aircraft in service. By jumping straight to the flying wing design China is basically ignoring what is an evolutionary niche. The H-6K enables the development of avionics and weapon systems for modern bomber aircraft which is required as a step towards the flying wing design. A blended wing body design with variable geometry would not help reach this goal and would in fact distract from it.
China could license the Tu-160M2 since that aircraft is in production. But I doubt the Russians would do it since they never wanted to in the past. It would also require either replicating the engine production chain or buying engines outright and makes no strategic sense for China.
I do wonder how the PAK-DP, if it that aircraft ever enters service, would be applicable for the anti-ship mission in the Pacific. China also needs a high speed strike aircraft for the Pacific and the H-20 is not it.
China could license the Tu-160M2 since that aircraft is in production. But I doubt the Russians would do it since they never wanted to in the past. It would also require either replicating the engine production chain or buying engines outright and makes no strategic sense for China.
I do wonder how the PAK-DP, if it that aircraft ever enters service, would be applicable for the anti-ship mission in the Pacific. China also needs a high speed strike aircraft for the Pacific and the H-20 is not it.
Ha about tu160. China did not want tu22m in the mid 2000s but it did want tu160. As you can probably guess, Russia did not even allow china to look at it.
It's been pretty obvious that china has followed western countries in it's development path. Which means, they will always favor stealth or speed. I am not knowledgeable over aircraft design, so this could be completely dumb to say, but I don't see how you can make supersonic flywing design. As such, I don't see how you make a stealth supersonic bomber. At least with the stealth level and range and payload of b2.
You are going to see stealth stand off missiles, stealth anti ship missiles and stealth lacms. That's how the best way to penetrate air defense.