China can survive without jet planes...
If US cuts China off microchips tomorrow its game over
WS-15 is never happening, China cant afford to wait years to get access to microchips...
This is the most critical issue at hand, CCP entirely unprepared while the enemy is hammering down
I read this article on cntechpost. The translation is atrocious. But an interesting view on things, if you can get through reading it.
I find them to be probably a little on the optimistic side but informative nonetheless. If you read the second interview, the person said
‘Is the U.S. ban related to TSMC's plant announcement?
Previously, the market thought it was related, seeing it as a gesture to the US to keep Huawei. But I now think it was just a coincidence in time.
What TSMC announced was to build a 5nm plant in the US, and although it looks advanced now, the plant is to be built in 2024, and 5nm won't be advanced by then. And with only 20,000 slices of monthly capacity, this plant is so small that its significance is more on a symbolic level, more like a Trump administration performance project.’
It was also noted that :
‘‘7. What progress has China made in independent research and development of photolithography machines?
At the moment, Shanghai Microelectronics is something to look forward to. But the high point of the lithography machine was in the Netherlands, not completely controlled by the United States.
Lithographs are important, but what we lack is an all-around strong upstream industry. For example, the United States has applied materials, PanLin Semiconductor, comprehensive layout PVD, CVD, etching machine, cleaning machine and a range of other equipment, if we can also be strong in these devices, there is no need to worry.
Of course, when we're strong enough, we can license each other; while the lithographs are also using American technology, the U.S. is also applying technology from other countries. So, if one day we are strong enough that ASML is applied to our technology, there will be a bottom.
For example, in the earliest days, our panelists still had to pay royalties to manufacturers such as Samsung, but now they no longer do. Why? Because of the panel we have achieved follow through and in some areas achieved beyond’’
So from what I can gather, China’s semiconductor industry initially started downstream, with assembly and making electronics such as Lenovo but with non chinese semiconductors. Then slowly moved upstream to designing IC. Even in manufacturing, China started with the low hanging fruit on the downstream end of he manufacturing chain and is trying to move more upstream.
I guess one of the reasons China did not invest in lithography earlier is because its very technically difficult to make and if you don’t develop strong industry downstream, there would not be demand or impetus for more upstream products. Not sure if that makes sense but that’s how I interpret it.
