Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

localizer said:

Hard to say what will happen. The scenario is unpredictable.

I suspect Huawei can negotiate a deal where it will be allowed to operate if it buys Intel chips for everything 5g. Basically, abandon Huawei chip design teams.


Looking at China's 2017 imports from the US:

View attachment 60095



There isn't much that China buys from US that can be blocked. It also makes no sense to block exports to the US.

Chinese people spend their money wisely.

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The US is doing second/third order bannings of exports. For example Huawei buys chips from TSMC, that is not a purchase from America, but because US says TSMC uses American gear, then Huawei is banned from TSMC...

This will be applied to everything that China needs that is critical that can hurt China if denied as well, not just about Huawei and not just limited to semiconductor industries. Mark my words.

If CCP was smart they would post my and tidalwaves writings and rewrite the gist of it and share it with every single 1.4 billion Chinese citizens tomorrow to let everyone know the big picture and the challenges ahead...

adiru said:

If CCP was smart they would post my and tidalwaves writings and rewrite the gist of it and share it with every single 1.4 billion Chinese citizens tomorrow to let everyone know the big picture and the challenges ahead...

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There is a lot going behind the scenes right now (ie. trying to get Chinese talent to go help motherland). China is not sitting idle I can guarantee you that.

Retaliation against the US is not easy and not a real solution.

Only solution is to buy time and advance Chinese industries.


If all it costs to make Chinese semiconductor industry competitive is losing part of Huawei, then it was worth it.


Huawei's employees are not going to suddenly just die off (Unless CIA kills them). They will be hired by other companies until a new Huawei is formed.

Generally speaking, governments use think tanks and other private research groups to advise them on technical issues.

Are there think tanks advising China its semiconductor industrial policy? Perhaps Tidalwave should try to join them instead of emailing companies directly.

adiru said:

If CCP was smart they would post my and tidalwaves writings and rewrite the gist of it and share it with every single 1.4 billion Chinese citizens tomorrow to let everyone know the big picture and the challenges ahead...

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We aren't the CCP, but perhaps one of us could try and post on Weibo? Anyone with significant clout, or knows someone with clout on there?

What's all this? The, what, 8 people, on this thread can't figure out a clear path to victory so all of a sudden, the whole country's screwed? LOL

China's the biggest market on the globe with more STEM graduates than the rest of the developed world combined, flush with funding and and the most resilient major economy on earth by far in the midst of global chaos. Less than a year ago, people said it would take China, what, 10 years to get from the 28nm/42nm stuff they were making to the current 7nm standard in semiconductors and it's already at 14nm now, with not just SMIC, but multiple companies shooting for 7nm this year. Then, I heard that lithography was the new choke-point and now I can't even keep up with all the news about SMEE with its new machines. The US brought down the force of the "most powerful country in the world" against a single company and Huawei made them a global laughing stock, dividing the US from whom it thought were its strongest allies, all the while posting 20% annual growth. When has the CCP ever faltered? When was it ever defeated by a ban? When has it ever failed to turn a ban into an innovative boost? I see nothing but opportunities for China to transform lithography and semiconductors into its new world-beating field.

SPOOPYSKELETON said:

Generally speaking, governments use think tanks and other private research groups to advise them on technical issues.

Are there think tanks advising China its semiconductor industrial policy? Perhaps Tidalwave should try to join them instead of emailing companies directly.



We aren't the CCP, but perhaps one of us could try and post on Weibo? Anyone with significant clout, or knows someone with clout on there?

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I dont have google account but maybe you can get Nathan Rich to do a youtube video about the state of Chinese semiconductor and the intent of US broad spectrum ban cutting China off access to chips?

Or even get that South Africa white guy to do a China bashing video on the same topic if that is what it takes the get the attention of the CCP or those in power in China

SPOOPYSKELETON said:

Generally speaking, governments use think tanks and other private research groups to advise them on technical issues.

Are there think tanks advising China its semiconductor industrial policy? Perhaps Tidalwave should try to join them instead of emailing companies directly.



We aren't the CCP, but perhaps one of us could try and post on Weibo? Anyone with significant clout, or knows someone with clout on there?

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He's got nothing valuable to offer them, which is why he wrote and they ignored, multiple times. They need real experts who can do research, not people to tell them that EUV and lithography are important and they should get their institutions together to try to make progress on them.

If he was half as knowledgeable as he pretended to be, he would be a talent that the CCP/Huawei sought after for his accomplishments and his position, not someone who they ignore multiple times. If he were truly a specialist in this very sensitive field who wanted to help China, he'd be as stealthy as possible in his operations for his own safety instead of posting all his junk on public forums for the FBI/CIA to come for him. The chances of a top semiconductor/EUV professional coming on this forum to lament how he wasn't paid attention to and then lash out with profanity-laced diatribes at those who don't believe him are none. Don't be gullible when strange people on the internet tell you that they are world-leading specialists on something.

manqiangrexue said:

They need real experts who can do research, not people to tell them that EUV and lithography are important and they should get their institutions together to try to make progress on it.

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Let me get this straight, are you saying we don't need Captain Obvious to come flying to the rescue?

manqiangrexue said:

Don't be gullible when strange people tell you that they are world-leading specialists on something.

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I'll put my hand up and cop to this charge. I thought the guy knew what he was talking about because he seemed to use a lot of technobabble, but whenever I asked about specifics he gave vague, generic responses. To be honest, given the Chinese government's opacity about the specifics of its industrial policy, this lithography thing isn't worth watching too closely until there's major announcements (delivery of cutting edge DUV machines, etc.) Until then I have to put it in the same compartment the WS-15 is in: very important, I really want to know more about it, but I'm not going to waste time going around in endless "discussion" circles that go nowhere.

People are overthinking this and we won't know how much this really impacts Huawei until we see China's response.

There is no way China/Huawei didn't see this move coming a mile away. We only see the news and information that is public and on the surface, the majority of information is exchanged behind closed doors.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Let me get this straight, are you saying we don't need Captain Obvious to come flying to the rescue?

I'll put my hand up and cop to this charge. I thought the guy knew what he was talking about because he seemed to use a lot of technobabble, but whenever I asked about specifics he gave vague, generic responses. To be honest, given the Chinese government's opacity about the specifics of its industrial policy, this lithography thing isn't worth watching too closely until there's major announcements (delivery of cutting edge DUV machines, etc.) Until then I have to put this in the same compartment the WS-15 is in: very important, I really want to know more about it, but I'm not going to waste time going around in endless "discussion" circles that go nowhere.

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China can survive without jet planes...
If US cuts China off microchips tomorrow its game over
WS-15 is never happening, China cant afford to wait years to get access to microchips...
This is the most critical issue at hand, CCP entirely unprepared while the enemy is hammering down