Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

localizer · May 18, 2020

Here's a perspective:

A more likely option for Huawei would therefore be to turn to MediaTek for its smartphone chipsets. The Taiwanese chip design house has already helped dozens of Chinese companies including Xiaomi and Oppo become viable smartphone makers. Industry analysts said since MediaTek’s chips are not custom-made, the new US sanctions, which aim at chips made to Huawei design specifications, should not apply.

...

There is no alternative supplier in sight for the application-specific chips, or Asic, that power telecoms base stations. “Both HiSilicon and Huawei themselves have aggressively built inventory over the past year, so they will probably be able to finish current 5G orders in China,” said the Taiwanese semiconductor executive. “But beyond that, the future for their network business looks very dark.”

What I don't understand is, what's special about Huawei 5g base station chips? Do those ASICs have to be sub 10nm?

SMIC can't do 5-7nm SOCs, but they also can't make the base station chips?

Intel's 5G base station chips are 10nm.

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I like how disingenuous the article title is. It should be "US government uses gunboat diplomacy to help Intel dominate chip market."

SMIC will likely get targeted by the US too, so it might as well just go full domestic without relying on US parts.

tidalwave · May 18, 2020

localizer said:
Here's a perspective:

What I don't understand is, what's special about Huawei 5g base station chips? Do those ASICs have to be sub 10nm?

SMIC can't do 5-7nm SOCs, but they also can't make the base station chips?

Intel's 5G base station chips are 10nm.

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I like how disingenuous the article title is. It should be "US government uses gunboat diplomacy to help Intel dominate chip market."

SMIC will likely get targeted by the US too, so it might as well just go full domestic without relying on US parts.

Huawei base station 5G chipsets is designed with 7nm spec in mind. They could do a 10nm design but will have to redo from scratch again. No such time. Plus SMIC doesnt offer 10nm so there is no point.

SMIC can potentially do a multipatterning 7nm, less performance than TSMC EUV 7nm but sufficient

ZeEa5KPul · May 18, 2020

tidalwave said:
EUV litho can wait. Domestic litho can wait....

The most urgent matter...

The most critical aspect for Huawei is 7nm process for its 5G base station chipset tiangang and cellphone Baloong 5000.

SMIC needs to work around the clock to rush to N+1 process.

China needs this process for its own 5G infrastructure domestically to say the least

The Clock is ticking.... Tick, tick, tick....

Had chinese government injecting that money1 yr earlier instead of yesterday so SMIC can hire more engineers to do parallel, N+1 could have come out by now instead targeting end of this year.

That doesnt leave enough margin for error , does it?

Kind of reminds me how they slow react to virus.
Only when huge problem show up in their face, they start to get their butt off chair.
They really wait for shit start to fly before they act.

You're forgetting the 120 day period and the order Huawei rushed into TSMC before the restriction. You're also forgetting the chips Huawei stockpiled before that. They saw this coming.

adiru · May 18, 2020

ZeEa5KPul said:
You're forgetting the 120 day period and the order Huawei rushed into TSMC before the restriction. You're also forgetting the chips Huawei stockpiled before that. They saw this coming.

I hope so. There is a difference between seeing something coming and then taking massive action pre-emptively early on... for example the 2 billion injection should have been 20 billion and a year ago....

Here is my hunch. The end goal of the US is not just to cripple Huawei and dash China's 5G dreams, but actually to shutdown China altogether. They are doing it in stages like example of frog being boiled alive slowly so that it doesn't react etc, but the US will continue to escalate until soon one day they just come out and say all microprocessors to China are banned.... In this digital age microchips are more important than oil... the intent is not just to curb China tech rise but I believe given the pattern and the MO, it is to have long term goal of completely collapsing China... in this modern age if your country cannot source chips its like as if EMP hit the entire nation and took out the grid...

localizer · May 18, 2020

adiru said:
I hope so. There is a difference between seeing something coming and then taking massive action pre-emptively early on... for example the 2 billion injection should have been 20 billion and a year ago....

Here is my hunch. The end goal of the US is not just to cripple Huawei and dash China's 5G dreams, but actually to shutdown China altogether. They are doing it in stages like example of frog being boiled alive slowly so that it doesn't react etc, but the US will continue to escalate until soon one day they just come out and say all microprocessors to China are banned.... In this digital age microchips are more important than oil... the intent is not just to curb China tech rise but I believe given the pattern and the MO, it is to have long term goal of completely collapsing China... in this modern age if your country cannot source chips its like as if EMP hit the entire nation and took out the grid...

i think the goal is not to shut china down as they have no plans for afterwards.

The goal is to continue to use Chinese slave labor and a market for US goods. Any signs of Chinese independence in a high tech sector must be curtailed.

TSMC was too close to China and already surpassed Intel. That was not acceptable.

It's got nothing to do with Trump because Trump doesn't even know these companies. These plans were there since day 1 to be used against anyone challenging US tech dominance.

@tidalwave They must have other designs (14nm) since the draconian measures were put in place? I can understand 7nm being necessary for the smartphone SOCs, but the base stations don't "need" 7nm I would think?

Will SMIC go complete independent from US or stay clear of Huawei?

adiru · May 18, 2020

localizer said:
i think the goal is not to shut china down as they have no plans for afterwards.

The goal is to continue to use Chinese slave labor and a market for US goods. Any signs of Chinese independence in a high tech sector must be curtailed.

TSMC was too close to China and already surpassed Intel. That was not acceptable.

It's got nothing to do with Trump because Trump doesn't even know these companies. These plans were there since day 1 to be used against anyone challenging US tech dominance.

@tidalwave They must have other designs (14nm) since the draconian measures were put in place? I can understand 7nm being necessary for the smartphone SOCs, but the base stations don't "need" 7nm I would think?

Will SMIC go complete independent from US or stay clear of Huawei?

China cannot continue business as usual without falling into the middle income trap and then even regressing (see Japan) unless it continues to ascend up the tech value chains... it is almost impossible to do this if China cannot find a workaround to the bans which deprive it of access to state of the art fabs /chip making processess etc. How can China continue to expect to be world's factory if it is denied microprocessors? How can China climb the tech ascension if its 5G/ AI and other dreams are dashed due to not having the access to chips?

On the other hand, if AI pans out and in the future US can have fully automated factories that need no human labor, then no longer is the need to outsource to cheaper places like India, Mexico, China, etc because nothing is cheaper than AI which runs on electricity costs for labor... Globalization could be going in reverse in that sense and automation will mean supply chains returning local again.

The biggest issue in that of peak resources and climate change, be it peak oil, peak minerials, peak fresh water, peak top soil. So in that perspective the world really is a zero sum game and Chinese rising standards of living in aggregate means less piece of the pie for everyone else, including the Americans. If the end goal is to shutdown China (cratter its GDP) then that would be bigger pieces of the pie for the rest of the world, and that would directly and porportionately benefit the US by far the most in terms of rising standards of living. The real wages in the US haven't risen since the 1970's... So this could be what Trump meant when he said he was going to MAGA

ZeEa5KPul · May 18, 2020

adiru said:
I hope so. There is a difference between seeing something coming and then taking massive action pre-emptively early on... for example the 2 billion injection should have been 20 billion and a year ago....

Here is my hunch. The end goal of the US is not just to cripple Huawei and dash China's 5G dreams, but actually to shutdown China altogether. They are doing it in stages like example of frog being boiled alive slowly so that it doesn't react etc, but the US will continue to escalate until soon one day they just come out and say all microprocessors to China are banned.... In this digital age microchips are more important than oil... the intent is not just to curb China tech rise but I believe given the pattern and the MO, it is to have long term goal of completely collapsing China... in this modern age if your country cannot source chips its like as if EMP hit the entire nation and took out the grid...

Look, I dislike being so blunt, but there's a lot of hysterics circulating around here about this issue and you're a big part of it. Take a deep breath. China will have a 28nm -> 14nm -> 7nm indigenous DUV machine by next year. SMIC already has DUV machines, the same model that TSMC took to 7nm. The situation with EUV is more murky which can make it seem more frightening, but China has been researching this technology since 2000 and breakthroughs have already been announced.

China will be behind for years to come, so what? China has been behind for a very long time and that hasn't stopped it. A big part of the reason it has been behind is that Chinese companies had open access to foreign chips and so - given their better performance and the xenophilia inculcated by Deng's reforms and contact with the West - bought them. Now that they appreciate the risk, Chinese semi companies will have customers beating a path to their door, bearing with them the money they need to do proper commercial R&D.

Even if in the worst case scenario Huawei's 5G is surpassed, so what? China's development as a whole is what should concern you, not one company's fortune. A part of me hopes it does, because then its relying on foreign suppliers of critical components will be a cautionary tale taught in Chinese business schools for 100 years.

Stop crying over spilled milk and woulda, shoulda, coulda. Worry about what to do moving forward.

adiru · May 18, 2020

ZeEa5KPul said:
Look, I dislike being so blunt, but there's a lot of hysterics circulating around here about this issue and you're a big part of it. Take a deep breath. China will have a 28nm -> 14nm -> 7nm indigenous DUV machine by next year. SMIC already has DUV machines, the same model that TSMC took to 7nm. The situation with EUV is more murky which can make it seem more frightening, but China has been researching this technology since 2000 and breakthroughs have already been announced.

China will be behind for years to come, so what? China has been behind for a very long time and that hasn't stopped it. A big part of the reason it has been behind is that Chinese companies had open access to foreign chips and so - given their better performance and the xenophilia inculcated by Deng's reforms and contact with the West - bought them. Now that they appreciate the risk, Chinese semi companies will have customers beating a path to their door, bearing with them the money they need to do proper commercial R&D.

Even if in the worst case scenario Huawei's 5G is surpassed, so what? China's development as a whole is what should concern you, not one company's fortune. A part of me hopes it does, because then its relying on foreign suppliers of critical components will be a cautionary tale taught in Chinese business schools for 100 years.

Stop crying over spilled milk and woulda, shoulda, coulda. Worry about what to do moving forward.

You are still looking at it from the mindset of business as usual and US only targeting tip of the sword companies like Huawei national champion etc.

I'm saying continued escalations may soon mean US telling all chip makers everywhere to deny all chips to China... sure it will have a blowback to the US and the world but they might calculate it to be worth it in the long run if its enough to destabilize China on the whole.

Forget about Huawei for a second, imagine if tomorrow or any given day its announced that all chip supplies to China has stopped... if China couldn't get any chips anywhere, Intel, AMD, etc for any purpose or any company, even if for re-exporting... then that is the lights going off moment....

Between Chips and jet engines, its Chips that are most critical to China. China doesn't need airplanes to survive, but without Chips, it brings even the most powerful nations to grinding halt....

That is my worst fear and worry concern if the US continues to escalate this is exactly where this is headed...

localizer · May 18, 2020

adiru said:
China cannot continue business as usual without falling into the middle income trap and then even regressing (see Japan) unless it continues to ascend up the tech value chains... it is almost impossible to do this if China cannot find a workaround to the bans which deprive it of access to state of the art fabs /chip making processess etc. How can China continue to expect to be world's factory if it is denied microprocessors? How can China climb the tech ascension if its 5G/ AI and other dreams are dashed due to not having the access to chips?

On the other hand, if AI pans out and in the future US can have fully automated factories that need no human labor, then no longer is the need to outsource to cheaper places like India, Mexico, China, etc because nothing is cheaper than AI which runs on electricity costs for labor... Globalization could be going in reverse in that sense and automation will mean supply chains returning local again.

The biggest issue in that of peak resources and climate change, be it peak oil, peak minerials, peak fresh water, peak top soil. So in that perspective the world really is a zero sum game and Chinese rising standards of living in aggregate means less piece of the pie for everyone else, including the Americans. If the end goal is to shutdown China (cratter its GDP) then that would be bigger pieces of the pie for the rest of the world, and that would directly and porportionately benefit the US by far the most in terms of rising standards of living. The real wages in the US haven't risen since the 1970's... So this could be what Trump meant when he said he was going to MAGA

The correct way is to increase the pie through technology.

It's like the taxation argument, instead of taxing and redistributing wealth (regressive), the goal should be to make the wealth pie bigger.

Of course the current US regime realizes the talent pool in Asia is over 4 billion people vs 300 million in the US.

As Asia gets richer, talent will stay in Asia. Asia will dominate and China is its leader.

What the US does will fail. It has never worked. No one has even been able to prevent the flow of technology and knowledge in the long run.

We will see what happens next year. Hope we get a nice surprise from Chinese scientists.

ZeEa5KPul · May 18, 2020

adiru said:
You are still looking at it from the mindset of business as usual and US only targeting tip of the sword companies like Huawei national champion etc.

No, I'm looking at it from the mindset of not running around like my hair's on fire and screaming, "We're all gonna die! We're all gonna die!!"

adiru said:
Forget about Huawei for a second, imagine if tomorrow or any given day its announced that all chip supplies to China has stopped... if China couldn't get any chips anywhere, Intel, AMD, etc for any purpose or any company, even if for re-exporting... then that is the lights going off moment....

That would bring the entire global technology sector to a dead stop. Every American semiconductor company would file for bankruptcy the day after that was announced. By the way, America's bête noire Huawei is not restricted from buying Qualcomm chips - what does that tell you about America's resolve? Do you think they have the balls to do what you're afraid of?

Even if they did, here's the much more important fact that you need to internalize: China already has a complete chip manufacturing and design capability. That capability is not at the cutting edge, but it's more than adequate if the issue is the Chinese economy's survival and continued technological ascent.

adiru said:
That is my worst fear and worry concern if the US continues to escalate this is exactly where this is headed...

Well, you have to learn when to let go. China is doing all it can at the moment, no matter what its past mistakes were. I know beating up on the Chinese government is a favourite pastime for a lot of people, but save some vitriol for the businessmen who day after day spurned Chinese suppliers in favour of Western ones.

Do you have any evidence that this effort is being short-changed today beyond your adding a zero to whatever subsidy number the government announces and saying it should have been done earlier?

Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

localizer

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tidalwave

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ZeEa5KPul

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adiru

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localizer

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adiru

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adiru

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localizer

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