So? Russia , Taiwan, Korea, majority of the Western countries don't have this technologies.
I into this Semiconductor field many years, what's yours?
You can call it BS if it makes you feel better.
Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.
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I into this Semiconductor field many years, what's yours?
You can call it BS if it makes you feel better.
I don't care whether or not they have these technologies. They either do not have the capability or the incentive to develop them - China has both. Taiwan, Korea, and a majority of Western countries don't have nuclear weapons either, yet China does.
For all your years of experience, the only response you've given when you've been pressed for specifics is "I dunno lol". Well, I do know - I know the history. I know that each time China's been subjected to a technological embargo - from nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union to semiconductors today - it's risen to the occasion and broken the embargo with lightning speed.
I don't need your permission or condescension to call it BS. It is BS and I will call it BS. Even if you happen to be correct, it will be by pure luck - you've given no one any reason to think you understand in detail what China needs to build an EUV machine from what it has now, so why should anyone take your word for it?
Since you put that way, so I just add a bit, NK also had nuke with starving stomachs, for whatever Worths.
Huawei being banned from the latest EUV technology is not the end of Huawei.
There are still many growth areas where use of older nodes works out cheaper than designing for the latest EUV node.
There should also be other Chinese companies which still can use the latest EUV technology from Samsung or TSMC.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Starving in NK is a myth ...... have you been there and see it yourself? I'd bet you haven't. Western medias want to portrait it that way
antiterror13
Brigadier
you started that .... the pot calling the kettle black ... thats you
broadsword
Brigadier
This thread was started by @tidalwave himself, and this is where his mettle shines, unlike in others where his emotions tended to run loose. Time we learn from him where he specializes.
The more he talks, the more I am not convinced. Sad
ASML has already developed the EUV machine and underlying technologies.
SMIC ordered the B Model.
But now, ASML has a C model.
My understanding is that this improves modularity and maintenance, rather than the underlying technology.
So how does China embargoing EUV technologies really slow ASML?
With China cutting itself out of the global supply chain, and industries leaving China, ASML would still be able to address at least 75% of the global market.
So a Chinese embargo of EUV technology may result in a marginal slowdown in ASML developing what comes next after EUV, but that is another 10+ years away. But at the cost of China losing influence, expertise, money etc
It doesn't change the Chinese response, which is fundamental research in new technologies which will replace current EUV tech in 5+ years.
Nor should China stop seeking to match current EUV systems.
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It also raises the point whether sub-3nm semiconductors are economically viable or desirable from a Huawei perspective.
I've seen an estimate that the chip design cost at 5nm (2020) is typically $543M.
And that the design cost at 3nm (2024) is $500M to $1500M.
Presumably the design cost at 2nm (2028?) would be $1000M+
Is designing and manufacturing a sub-3nm chip for consumer purposes still economically viable?
With the consumer smartphone processor volumes that we see from Samsung/Apple/Huawei, it looks like the cost-benefit threshold is between 3nm-5nm. Huawei has already been allocated 5nm/7nm capacity by TSMC and 6nm capacity by Samsung.
And SMIC should be able to get down to 7nm in the next few years, which Huawei should still have access to.
But the vast majority of Huawei products (and sales) are mostly in consumer/industrial sectors where the optimum cost-benefit requires older process technology.
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