if read the buzzword in that article.
below 65nm , ArF
that's old style optical lithography and it can't even guarantee 28nm
Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.
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below 65nm , ArF
that's old style optical lithography and it can't even guarantee 28nm
Well, let's say China and the USA are at war.
That is a push comes to shove moment.
Does Taiwan automatically declare war against China as well?
Or does Taiwan remain neutral in such a conflict?
The surveys show the vast majority of people want the status quo to continue, because they know Taiwan will be devastated in any conflict.
And whilst many in Taiwan will want to use that opportunity to declare independence, everyone knows that the end result may actually be China conquering Taiwan.
If TSMC have cut 20% of Huawei's allocation, does that mean Huawei will still remain TSMC's largest customer?
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Of course they don't . They want to make money on both sides. But if they force to make a choice that's different.
20% is only the beginning. TSMC internally already worried about the US.
100% more likely China will attack taiwan first before US,
Yes. But most countries in Asia are either:
1. Okay with Chinese influence
2. Trying really hard to avoid choosing between China and the USA.
It's feasible for China to grow GDP from $27T today to $50T by 2030
And for Chinese R&D spending to reach $1300B+.
And if the US goes too far, everyone also knows they be stuck in the middle of a full-scale cold war.
But this time, China will likely be a technologically advanced country which has a larger population, GDP, R&D spending and military spending than the US+Allies.
We even have Senator Romney publicly acknowledging that China will likely be the world's sole superpower in 2050.
Personally, I think the USA will still be a (junior) superpower.
But similar thinking is happening in the countries of Asia.
So as time goes on, more and more countries should pick China over the USA.
well, you already counting the chicken before they even hatched.
At current US and China battle just count day by day and month by month. The dynamic can changed in instant.
If we're in a technology war, @tidalwave, I have to tell you that you're pretty bad for morale. Instead of repeatedly hitting the panic button at what is normal hedging and capacity allocation by TSMC, how about you tell us how long it would take for China to put together an EUV machine from scratch with a national level effort if it invalidated all of ASML's patents. Not Nikon, not Samsung, not anybody else: a wholly indigenous Chinese effort with maximum support from the highest levels.
China has to take into worst case scenario planning which is TSMC completely stop supplying to Huawei due to US pressure.
If you don't do worst case analysis , you doomed to fail with no preparation. That's strategic mistake.
Morale is not something you can count on all the time.
Doing EUV Project, there's no set time because you will never know if they would get stuck somewhere.
In my other posts I already give out two defensive strategies
1)Stockpiling most advanced optical lithography available. As many as possible. (new or second hand)
2)EUV product denial strategy, blocking all EUV products inside China this way make EUV technology prohibitive expensive and become marginalized and can't take off. ( This will enacted once Huawei cut off from TSMC)
I can't read Chinese, that doesn't mean I am less informed and my assumptions are wrong. That's arrogance.
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