Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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tidalwave

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China could use the market denial strategy to make EUV tech fail.
EUV is very expensive and need huge market to recoup the cost.

If China cannot get EUV machine then just don't use EUV (not just Huawei) if Samsung , TSMC can't make EUV products for China market. They going to get hurt.

Along with DeAmerican trend and
t2contra said:
Can SMIC make 7nm without EUV?
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nugroho

Junior Member
tidalwave said:
停止 2019 年底，中芯国际的 14nm 产能据悉只有 3000 到 5000 晶圆 / 月，不外 2020 年 14nm 产能会增长很快，年底的时候将到达 15000 片晶圆 / 月，是今朝的 3-5 倍，最多能增长 400%。



14nm 之后尚有改造型的 12nm FinFET 工艺，按照中芯国际之前先容，该工艺对比 14nm 晶体管尺寸进一步缩微，功耗低落 20%、机能晋升 10%，错误率低落 20%，估量本年上半年就会孝敬收入。



再往后中芯国际暗示还会有 N+1 及 N+2 代 FinFET 工艺，个中本年内有望小局限量产 N+1 代工艺。



只是中芯国际没有明晰这里的 N 指代的是哪种工艺，思量到他们很有大概会跳过 10nm 工艺节点，那么 N+1 代应该就是 7nm 节点了，意味着我们本年就有大概看到国产的 7nm 工艺。



即便中芯国际不跳过 10nm 节点，那么本年海内的工艺也能追赶到 10nm 节点，跟台积电、三星照旧会落伍一到两代，可是已经足够先进了


Some news from SMIC. The production of 14nm will ramp up significantly from initial start at 2019. Near end of 2020, production volume will increased to 400%.

Going forward, SMIC will have N+1, N+2. This is with non EUV system.
N+1 could be 10nm and N+2 could 7nm using multipattern technique like TSMC first gen 7nm.

If ASML refuse EUV to SMiC. Then SMIC needs to stockpile and add more the most advanced traditional optical lithography equipments.

The battle against US could get more ugly.more disruption could be ahead.

China at least need to stockpile enough tools to guarantee 14nm to 7nm for long while till they can come up EuV of their own
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the matter is without euv , Will 7 nm SMIC cost more expensive ?
For PLA , cost will be absorbable ( a little problem ), but for massive civilian use, cost production is very important.
 
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AndrewS

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tidalwave said:
China could use the market denial strategy to make EUV tech fail.
EUV is very expensive and need huge market to recoup the cost.

If China cannot get EUV machine then just don't use EUV (not just Huawei) if Samsung , TSMC can't make EUV products for China market. They going to get hurt.

Along with DeAmerican trend and
Click to expand...


Roughly half of all semiconductors passes through China for domestic consumption and re-export, but that still leaves the other half.
So China is not able to make EUV technology fail with a market denial strategy.

And it will take 5+ years for China to develop a decent alternative to ASML's EUV.

Neither TSMC or Samsung want to stop supplying semiconductors to the Chinese market.
They already know they need to de-Americanise their products, but it takes time.
The same applies to any company in Taiwan, Korea or Japan.

Plus as time goes on, China should increasingly have much more economic/political/military influence over Taiwan, Korea, Japan.
A neutral Taiwan, Korea, Japan is all China needs.
 
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tidalwave

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AndrewS said:
Roughly half of all semiconductors passes through China for domestic consumption and re-export, but that still leaves the other half.
So China is not able to make EUV technology fail with a market denial strategy.

And it will take 5+ years for China to develop a decent alternative to ASML's EUV.

Neither TSMC or Samsung want to stop supplying semiconductors to the Chinese market.
They already know they need to de-Americanise their products, but it takes time.
The same applies to any company in Taiwan, Korea or Japan.

Plus as time goes on, China should increasingly have much more economic/political/military influence over Taiwan, Korea, Japan.
A neutral Taiwan, Korea, Japan is all China needs.
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wishful thinking,. Taiwan and Korea if push comes to shove they have no choice but leaning toward US side. They use alot of US tools. No possible way to be neutral.
Just yesterday news from TSMC that it's cutting 20% Hisilicon output. It's starts to hedging.
 
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AndrewS

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tidalwave said:
wishful thinking,. Taiwan and Korea if push comes to shove they have no choice but leaning toward US side. They use alot of US tools. No possible way to be neutral.
Just yesterday news from TSMC that it's cutting 20% Hisilicon output. It's starts to hedging.
Click to expand...

Why lean towards the US unnecessarily if:

1. the US cannot prevent the Chinese military from establishing air superiority over the skies of Taiwan or Korea
2. and China is far more important economically than the USA in the future

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If push comes to shove, then China and the USA are already at war, which is in no one's interest.

Even now, if push comes to shove, many countries in Asia would pick China.
And in 10 years, I expect Korea (and some other countries) to do the same.

EDIT
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Can you post the link on the TSMC Hisilicon news.

I only just see this on Huawei going with the Samsung 6nm process
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Logically, TSMC is riskier for Huawei than Samsung.
And there doesn't appear to be much actual difference between TSMC 7nm/5nm and Samsung 6nm
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Why lean towards the US unnecessarily if:

1. the US cannot prevent the Chinese military from establish air superiority over the skies of Taiwan or Korea
2. and China is far more important economically than the USA in the future

Can you post the link on the TSMC Hisilicon news
Click to expand...
Those are your own assumptions I don't get that from taiwanese sides and I read taiwanese news and commentaries reguarly. Do you?

Do you even read chinese? if you don't pls dont ask me next times.

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