Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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Weaasel

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Japan can be tech independent from US curretnly. Maybe not in the past.

Japan cannot compare to China ecommerce internet tech. Japan doesn't have baidu, tencent, alibab a players like that. They cannot scale things up like that. Those are nice to have but not critical

US tech has huge holes now. iBM, global foundry fallen way behind . If Samsung and TSMC and others in Taiwan don't fab for US companies, things will grind into a halt.

US power mainly come from ability to sanction people of they don't obey.

US doesn't have lithography equipment ,they don't have anyone thAt very good at optica, lens.US has a lot of technology holes

All lithography equipment lens and optics in market right now are either Nikon or Carl Zeiss.


- Japan does have the capability of quite easily and quickly replacing all types of tech if necessary, even though doing so would not be commercially viable. But with regards to the expertise and technological knowhow and wherewithal, they do.

- Japan could have all e commerce services and apps.

- South Korea and Taiwan are two small countries with relatively small populations and given the structural nature of the global economy, they have to be highly export oriented to have the high standards of living that they presently have. For that to change, for them to be capable of shifting a much larger share of their exports to domestic consumption than they presently do, they will have to find some way in greatly increasing demand for their products domestically, while at the same time not greatly reducing wages, or having the state take up an even greater burden of the share of costs of services and subsidization of utilities provision than they already do. This can probably happen if we move towards an economy of much lesser scarcity than what exists today. An economy that is fuelled by energy sources that are not only much more abundant that what prevails today, but also MUCH more efficient. There is thorium based nuclear power, for which the technology exists, but if controlled nuclear fusion power is every achieved, which is somewhat probable, then that is even MUCH MUCH better.

- Because of their dependency on the Americans for a number of different things such as a market for their exports; equipment, components, and other items of technology; and also security among major issues, Taiwan and Korea, and to a significantly lesser extent Japan are vulnerable to various forms of sanctions threats that come from the US. With regards to exports issues, it would actually be in their interests to undertake applied research and development in thorium based nuclear power which will lead to significantly greater economic scarcity for them.

With regards to security issues, honestly speaking, South Korea and Japan are capable of looking after themselves, but they still find it convenient to maintain a China guarded posturing to maintain US military forces on their territory. South Korea can develop nuclear weapons of its own to guard itself against the threat of a mercurial North Korea regime. Japan can develop its own nuclear weapons as well.

China, the Koreas, and Japan are all themselves highly mistrustful of one another and have much pride that does not permit them to properly and sincerely cooperate with one another. Perpetuating the status quo is what they are at best all settling for.

- The US may not have ASML's level UV lithographic equipment and lenses, but it can procure the finest quality of such equipment wherever it can be found, because such equipment is possessed by nations that are in various ways friendly to it, aligned to it, or which it would be able to bully to have them give them what they - the US wants. Would ASML dare not sell its finest state of the art lithographic equipment to US firms that meet the asking price. But America can prevent those countries from selling those goods to countries that those other countries have good or even relations with. The Netherlands has no beef with China or Russia, but America would prevent them from selling such equipment to them.

- Nikon and Carl Zeiss: They will sell their state of the art equipment to firms in countries that are all part of the US Alliance system and those which the Americans approve. But they won't sell them to China, because the US does not approve. That's why China should gain the capability of producing EVERY SINGLE ITEM of technology to the highest quality standard. If China does so, it will be assured that other nations cannot prevent it from pursuing its tech goals and ancillary socio economic development that can come with it. And it might even incentivize those other countries to give the US the Middle Finger and sell state of the art tech to China in hopes of capturing a share of the Chinese market, which it will be missing out on, since they know definitely that there will be Chinese suppliers of.
 

Chish

Junior Member
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This thread has been an an interesting and informative one, now the last few pages had gone completely off topics with extreme political views.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Nonetheless, a government is not a people. I don't treat CCP as some kind of monarchy, the embodiment of Chinese people. If they are not leading the country ideally, they should be replaced. Not violently and not with serious instability. Just by people making it known they want more than what is being allowed. Alas, people don't care and are content with their current situation.
This kind of thinking is nonsense because nothing is ideal; it is a concept that only exists in people's minds and it is different in every person's mind. If you replace everything that is not ideal, you will never have anything and obviously, it would be impossible to have stability as every leadership is constantly put under the microscope for signs it should be replaced and out the door before they even get the hang of things. A big sign of a country in trouble is constantly replacing leadership out of schedule. If you run a company, you'd see that want to replace your bad employees with good employees but the last thing you want to do is fire and replace people every time you see something about them that is not ideal because you will have massive employee turn-around and be perpetually stuck training people with your time and money, never getting the truly excellent loyal veteran workers who can only be built with time and experience. China needs a good government; it needs a great government that keeps it growing ahead of its rivals economically and technologically and the CCP gets the job done. It's the great employee who you don't want to fire in search of a perfect employee. People don't care and are content because the CCP, while not ideal like everything else in the world, is doing an overall wonderful job and under it, people can see China achieving the goal of becoming the world number one so we want stability under the CCP.
 
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AndrewS

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Actually Japanese is hardcore, doesn't depend on any US tech. They love fundamental science, it's their passion.
Their optics like from Nikon and precision control beat what US has.
Yes they have lithography equipment but got tripped up by ASML inEUV But they can succeed and make come back.

They are sneaky as hell, while all the commotion at 5g they already come out a 6g sample, 40 times of 5g

Japanese companies used to dominate the lithography equipment market.

But then ASML came with an open collaborative model in terms of product development with other companies and also in customer support.
Which allowed ASML to iterate and improve faster than their more xenophobic? Japanese competitors.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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It's all domestic parts. I have examined their high end equipment they are all Japanese parts if not 100% at least 95%

Sometimes you need to swallow pride and tip your hat to your opponent and give credit where it's due

Designing with all Japanese parts works for some products.

But that approach failed in the lithography equipment market, and allowed ASML to dominate instead.
 

AndrewS

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Were it not for the 1989 EU/US Arms Embargo, China would be begging for F-35 like the Taiwan, or PAK-FA Su-50 like the Indians. Ask someone in 2001 that China will have it's own stealth fighter prototype within one decade, THEY WOULD LAUGH AT YOUR FACE. Now before 3 decades since arms embargo, we have our own fleet of operational 5th gen J-20 stealth fighters, something even RUSSIANS can't boast.

Often, the impetus to be self-reliant comes from external forces, not internal forces. US sanction is a BLESSING IN DISGUISE, something the Chinese can overcome with time and money and people resources. It's a political decision at this point. US can only delay China's rise by a decade or two at most, China will eventually catchup with the world's leading tech in semiconductor chips.

For background.
  • Currently China's GDP is $27Trillion in PPP Terms. China spends 2.2% of GDP on R&D, which comes to $600B
  • But by 2025, 6% GDP growth means a GDP of $38Trillion. And if R&D spending increases to 2.5%, that comes to $950B
  • And by 2030, 5% GDP growth means a GDP of $49Trillion. And if R&D spending increases to 2.8%, that comes to $1372B
The 2030 figures likely means China would have a larger Population, GDP and R&D spending than the rest of the developed world.
In the long-run, the exchange rate should catch up to the PPP exchange rates.

So theoretically, China does have the resources and also consumer market to eventually become self-sufficient in every technology.
But such an outcome would be worse than a having single global market.

In such a world, I also can't see how South Korea could remain in the US camp.
China and South Korea are next door neighbours, so China would be dominant from both an economic AND military perspective.
You would see something similar for Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere in Asia.

So it's not impossible for Taiwan, Korea, and Japan to become neutral or aligned with China one day.
That solves a lot of China's technology security issues.

And we can see Taiwan, Korea, and Japan already hedging because they can see the same trends.
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
This thinking is actually poisonous /venomous.
Decoupling the CCP from the Chinese people actually plays into the agenda of foreign nation/people/entities to see the fall of a unified and powerful China.
Seeing the relationship between the Chinese people and the CCP through the prism of a "master - slave" relationship is actually harmful. The CCP is an extension of the Chinese people. The CCP members are Chinese peoples. Unless you can prove that CCP is governed by nepotism and clans men /tribal qualities - CCP should be viewed as Chinese people's government.


I agree. To the point yet another candidate will be going into the trash can to join others there.
I no longer wish to read whatever he got to say on anything at all.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
We've been here before in other threads. All it takes is one emotional vent and then *whoosh*- it's all politics.
Where's @tidalwave. Post something relevant to the thread plz.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
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Actually, i am writing a proposal to elon musk, about starting this EUV project in China. Right now he having a lot of fun at Shanghai, dancing around in front of media as model3 and soon modelY come out. US subsidies dried out and elon is an opportunist and headed to China secure big loan for his gigafactory at China. Elon background is a scientist, engineer, entrepreneur and visionary. I try to convince him China needs this EUV lithography tech and product as now unavailable due restriction. He will have to build everything from ground up with no foreign tech whatsoever. He's a big dreamer into space, Mars and sending Tesla car into space. He might take up my proposal.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Actually, i am writing a proposal to elon musk, about starting this EUV project in China. Right now he having a lot of fun at Shanghai, dancing around in front of media as model3 and soon modelY come out. US subsidies dried out and elon is an opportunist and headed to China secure big loan for his gigafactory at China. Elon background is a scientist, engineer, entrepreneur and visionary. I try to convince him China needs this EUV lithography tech and product as now unavailable due restriction. He will have to build everything from ground up with no foreign tech whatsoever. He's a big dreamer into space, Mars and sending Tesla car into space. He might take up my proposal.

My read is that Elon only takes up projects that will save mankind. So solar and batteries will prevent climate change and save the world. And SpaceX is supposed to lead to Martian colonisation, so the human race doesn't get wiped out by an asteroid.
 
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