Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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Phead128

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Moderator - World Affairs
@sinophilia

Yes, pure raw intellect should imply China's early catchup to West in 50's, 60's, 70's, but did you consider how European gunboat diplomacy forcing "Open doors" policy prevented early Chinese industry to flourish and compete with flood of advanced European imports of combustion engines, light bulbs, and firearm? All major Western economies had protectionists tariffs to protect local industry from dumping of cheap goods, or preventing foreigners from dominating the market.

Your knowledge of China's historical economic development is lacking if you don't know how devastating the "Open doors" gunboat diplomacy is it to China's organic industrial development, because you can't compete against cheap massproduced advanced foreign imports flooding your markets, it suffocates indigenous competitors.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Japan can be tech independent from US curretnly. Maybe not in the past.
Can it? I'm it sure it can in fair competition but I think everyone sees now that the US doesn't play fair. It spreads rumors that Japanese equipment is used for spying, then it lobbies its cronies to kidnap Japanese CEOs wherever they travel. It puts sanctions on Japanese tech products (including cars) and tells everyone that whomever does business with the Japanese will be locked out from using the dollar. All US companies including Microsoft and Google can't license anything to Japan. Push a little further and maybe the US spreads some kind of livestock disease in Japan, starts a trade war with it. It wants to sign a trade deal that involves gutting Japanese tech companies. Then it takes away all military cooperation from Japan and harasses Japanese islands with American warships. Now how will Japanese tech fare? That is China's fight. I gave Japan due credit, but not extra.
 
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sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese unity can only be under the CCP

Interesting.. Is this some kind of law of physics or something? If we are living in a simulation as autists like Elon Musk believe, I wonder if even they are surprised by how unalterable this mysterious law of nature is.


China is backwards because of decadent dynastic rule that saw Chinese science fall way behind.

So the initial divergence began in the 1600s, maybe even as far back as the 1400s or even 1200s according to some. This is not related to the point I am making and it's an argument for another time. Obviously this has nothing to do with the CCP. Japan and Korea were not superior to China back then in living standards, yet today they are still significantly so. Why?

The CCP took a China that couldn't make a truck and turned it into a China that makes things today that the West can't make

West can't make? Or WONT make? You think if the West went full Nazi and autarky they couldn't make everything themselves? They are still ahead on 95-99% of all fronts. Size is the reason China is winning on some fronts, but even there it is not strong enough yet. Size is extremely important to China and all countries to an extent, another area the CCP seems to care less about than maintaining power. One-Child Policy should have been removed decades ago, and STRONGLY incentivizing Han births from upper socioeconomic backgrounds should have been incentivized long ago too. Now what? Is China content with going the way of Japan? Slowly dying out? Worsening dependency ratio every year?

'Slow and steady' bullshit as ever. Things can be done faster, without significantly increasing risk, something that Germanic people have imbued in their blood, and something East Asians need to promote since this is an inherent flaw. Your argument only has merit because the CCP is the only government China has had in modern history, through the shit eras and the good eras of the last 40 years. I bet the good eras could have been even better. Now CCP is projecting 6% growth. Who knows if that is entirely accurate. And how low it will be in 2021 or 2023 or 2025. At this level of economic development other East Asian countries were still at 8-10% growth.

Under the CCP, Chinese tech grew and grew; it never fell behind because of the CCP

You don't even have another Chinese government to even compare to to provide a basis for comparison. The only other alternative is the KMT. Unless you are going to argue Taiwan is a shithole...

the US had to assassinate the Japanese economy because it was growing too strong

Heard this time and time again, but without evidence given. Just some esoteric hard to grasp factoids without data backing it up. Would I be surprised if America does this? No. Did it do this to Japan? No concrete evidence is ever given. But anyway, what is your point? My point is not to suck America's teet like Japan. I know how Japan has acted with America since WW2. It's pathetic. I would never want that for China. To be a subservient power in exchange for wealth? Of course not.

What I don't want is a China under a government which wastes an inordinate amount of time obsessing so much about remaining in power, and doing anything it can to stay in power, no matter how disadvantageous to the country. Any possible innovation, economic development, demographic policy, massive breakthrough, needs to be done in such a manner so as not to increase the probability of displeasure from the masses if even the probability of that is 0.001%. An Elon Musk SpaceX of China would have taken 2 centuries to have his breakthroughs implemented. This is due to fear of government of anything moving to quickly.

I also don't want China following a Jewish sociopolitical and economic ideology, copied by Slavs and then copied by impoverished Chinese 100 years ago. It's time to leave this Communism and Maoism embarrassing bullshit behind. Are you not embarrassed to be following a social ideology copied by some random impoverished Eastern Europeans, who now wholly disavow that shitpost they made?
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
@sinophilia

Yes, pure raw intellect should imply China's early catchup to West in 50's, 60's, 70's, but did you consider how European gunboat diplomacy forcing "Open doors" policy prevented early Chinese industry to flourish and compete with flood of advanced European imports of combustion engines, light bulbs, and firearm? All major Western economies had protectionists tariffs to protect local industry from dumping of cheap goods, or preventing foreigners from dominating the market.

Your knowledge of China's historical economic development is lacking if you don't know how devastating the "Open doors" gunboat diplomacy is it to China's organic industrial development, because you can't compete against cheap massproduced advanced foreign imports flooding your markets, it suffocates indigenous competitors.

I didn't know open doors policy existed into the 50s, 60s, and 70s.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
There's nothing to comprehend about what you wrote, you're simply whining about the Chinese government without articulating any alternative. The closest you came to anything definable is "Nazi Germany without the racial policies". Why should China be anything like Nazi Germany? Nazi Germany is a loser; why should I want to follow a loser's example?

Did I say China should be a carbon copy of Nazi Germany? No, you are being overly simplistic in your argumentation again. By the same ridiculous argument China should void all Communist-socialist doctrine since it is the biggest loser of the 20th Century. It's funny how that logic blows up in your face.



I'm sorry to put this so baldly, but you're simply not equipped to debate me - and certainly not qualified to proclaim an opinion about Chinese governance and expect to be taken seriously - if you think that Latin America is not a textbook example of colonial exploitation. Let's see: genocidal invasion and unprecedented plunder by the Spanish, and continuation of that invasion and plunder by the US once it succeeded in enforcing the Monroe Doctrine. Go look up the history of the term "banana republic" and think about how that kind of exploitation might retard a country's development, no matter the IQ of its population.

The Spaniards and Portuguese that colonized Latin America didn't leave to some home country; where do you think the modern descendants of Latin America come from genius? Since you are such a great debater let's see you make the logical leap. Also, the Monroe Doctrine does not equal colonization. Certainly your standards of what is considered colonization are very low if you think America colonized Latin America. I wonder why Argentina and Chile are significantly better off than Guatemala or Honduras? Perhaps they were colonized less than those... natives. When you look every country in the world, the same coincidental ranking occurs. Asians at the top, Whites second, Africans last. Explain that master debater.


Because it was developed by the Soviet Union. Not out of the kindness of Stalin's heart, but to be able to pull its weight during the Cold War. It wasn't because Poles have blond hair and blue eyes. Incidentally, the US followed this policy of developing satellites that were useful to it in the Cold War - Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Germany, etc. Latin America wasn't so lucky, their role in the movie was just to plant bananas.

And I am not fit to argue with you? Stalin built Poland? Man you are really winging it with these arguments. There is a reason IQ is correlated with development, and its not something you have bothered arguing with. Just say you don't know instead of desperately making crap up.

Have the courage of your convictions. Proudly state that you believe the racists' favourite theory that people who are poor are poor because they have low IQ. How very convenient for them that it absolves them of all historical responsibility.

What? I never denied I believe that intellect, as measured by g-loaded IQ tests like RPMs or Stanford-Binet or WAIS are reflective of income potential? That is a fact, in fact the most highly reliably produced fact in all the social sciences. I don't give a damn what racists use it for, just like I don't care if Hitler loved dogs, doesn't mean I won't.



What I gave isn't really an argument any more than "the sky is blue" is an argument: it's a self-evident truth. Wealthy countries are wealthy because they industrialized earliest. Outliers like Singapore, Dubai, Taiwan, etc. are just tiny exceptions - their wealth is purely a result of their patrons' support and indulgence

And? Why did they industrialize first? Racism probably in your mind. Or colonization. Or both.

You've "fixed" nothing. China is a country only by analogy. It is an amalgamated superstate composed of many civilizations unified over thousands of years. It is a fifth of humanity, that's a fact - you can't ignore that fact to make your silly excuse for a theory of development work.

China is unified under one main ethnic group that constitutes more than 90% of its population. Yes there are other ethnicities considered Chinese; still, there is one relatively coherent ethnic/genetic identity. Besides, seems like the point flew miles above your head.


No, I'm arguing that Taiwan has high living standards because its sugar-daddy allowed it to have high living standards. Taiwan has no bearing whatsoever on China's development path - it is a totally irrelevant non-sequitur. If you're so enamoured with Taiwan, live there. I don't know why you have to have opinions about how other places run their affairs when your utopia exists right here on Earth. Just go there.

If only America could just 'allow' Africa to be wealthy it would be a superpower overnight. Same with India. What sneaky people the Americans are! How obscenely powerful that they control the fate of Humanity!
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Interesting.. Is this some kind of law of physics or something? If we are living in a simulation as autists like Elon Musk believe, I wonder if even they are surprised by how unalterable this mysterious law of nature is.
I already told you. Law of momentum. CCP has all the momentum now, so anything is a disruption. Also, law of physics; large force overcomes small force. You go to China and you try to topple the CCP, but the CCP and its followers have wayyyyy more force than you and your pathetic attempt to incite anti-CCP sentiment ("Does anyone else feel this way?" Don't make me puke), and they'll put you out of your misery. That is, if people like me who see you in China trying such a thing don't get to you first. What law is that? Mysterious, eh?
So the initial divergence began in the 1600s, maybe even as far back as the 1400s or even 1200s according to some. This is not related to the point I am making and it's an argument for another time. Obviously this has nothing to do with the CCP.
It is very much relevant because it is necessary to determine starting point. You're writing as if the CCP's China started at the same tech level as the West and then fell behind, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. As I said, the CCP inherited a China too far behind Western science to even comprehend and today, it is superior in some areas, and able to challenge in others. All the work of the CCP.
Japan and Korea were not superior to China back then in living standards, yet today they are still significantly so. Why?
Question answered too many times. Short-version: teet-sucking. Long version: go find old posts and figure it out.
West can't make? Or WONT make? You think if the West went full Nazi and autarky they couldn't make everything themselves? They are still ahead on 95-99% of all fronts. Size is the reason China is winning on some fronts, but even there it is not strong enough yet. Size is extremely important to China and all countries to an extent, another area the CCP seems to care less about than maintaining power. One-Child Policy should have been removed decades ago, and STRONGLY incentivizing Han births from upper socioeconomic backgrounds should have been incentivized long ago too. Now what? Is China content with going the way of Japan? Slowly dying out? Worsening dependency ratio every year?
Gimme a citation for the 95-99% claim. I don't buy it. CAN'T make. What kind of bullshit are you trying to pull that everything that the West has over China, it's because of Chinese inability but everything that China has over the West, it's because they "won't" make it? The US WONT make 5G to compete with Huawei? LOL This is self-hatred if you're Chinese. What kind of sinophilia is this??
'Slow and steady' bullshit as ever. Things can be done faster, without significantly increasing risk, something that Germanic people have imbued in their blood, and something East Asians need to promote since this is an inherent flaw. Your argument only has merit because the CCP is the only government China has had in modern history, through the shit eras and the good eras of the last 40 years. I bet the good eras could have been even better. Now CCP is projecting 6% growth. Who knows if that is entirely accurate. And how low it will be in 2021 or 2023 or 2025. At this level of economic development other East Asian countries were still at 8-10% growth.
Everything could have been better everywhere. Nobody's perfect, and the CCP is anything but slow. It got off to a slow start, but now, there is nothing in the world except light itself that is faster than Chinese development. Even Planck's constant is starting to get jealous LOL

I don't understand what you're bullshitting on about 2021, 2023, 2025. Are you trying to get us to condemn the CCP for assumed future events? LOLOL Show me what "level" this is and who was still developing at 8-10%. (And remember that small countries don't grow per capita GDP at the same rate as large countries as all the countries with highest per capita GDP are small economies.) It sounds like pulling numbers out of your ass is your hobby for this post.
You don't even have another Chinese government to even compare to to provide a basis for comparison. The only other alternative is the KMT. Unless you are going to argue Taiwan is a shithole...
Oh, no other to compare, eh? So just tear down the current one and get a second on to compare? Why don't we cut off your head and stick a new one on to compare because I think this one's not working as well as it could? LOL Taiwan? Who's scared of Taiwan? LOL China's here to overtake the US. What's Taiwan gonna do? Have a congress fist fight? LOL
Heard this time and time again, but without evidence given. Just some esoteric hard to grasp factoids without data backing it up. Would I be surprised if America does this? No. Did it do this to Japan? No concrete evidence is ever given. But anyway, what is your point? My point is not to suck America's teet like Japan. I know how Japan has acted with America since WW2. It's pathetic. I would never want that for China. To be a subservient power in exchange for wealth? Of course not.
You heard it time and time again cus it's true. Only question is if you heard it so many times, why haven't you learned yet? Without evidence? Japan's economy was growing too fast so the US forced it to negotiate new economic treaties including its currency. Next thing you know, it tanks. You didn't know that? You're not equipped for this debate, are you?
What I don't want is a China under a government which wastes an inordinate amount of time obsessing so much about remaining in power, and doing anything it can to stay in power, no matter how disadvantageous to the country. Any possible innovation, economic development, demographic policy, massive breakthrough, needs to be done in such a manner so as not to increase the probability of displeasure from the masses if even the probability of that is 0.001%. An Elon Musk SpaceX of China would have taken 2 centuries to have his breakthroughs implemented. This is due to fear of government of anything moving to quickly.

I also don't want China following a Jewish sociopolitical and economic ideology, copied by Slavs and then copied by impoverished Chinese 100 years ago. It's time to leave this Communism and Maoism embarrassing bullshit behind. Are you not embarrassed to be following a social ideology copied by some random impoverished Eastern Europeans, who now wholly disavow that shitpost they made?
Yeah yea, you don't want this, you don't want that. Nobody cares what you want. Here's the fact: the CCP is the leader of team China. They are not perfect, but doing the best job in the world right now. You can't do shit to change this leadership. The only thing you can decide is whether or not you want to be on team China; if you do, then the only thing you can do is accept the CCP as your leader. So do you wanna be on team China, Mr. "Sinophilia"?
 
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Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
So I guess with ASML the United States really has found a weak point. It seems that China is decades behind in this industry.

However, ASML is a Dutch company not an American one. There's still a chance that they will sell to SMIC.

Additionally, the European Union is reasonable (unlike the United States). Can't the Chinese government try to negotiate (if the machines are still not shipped after a year)? For instance, why not make a huge concession? Like something on global warming? Or truly do something big to enormously open up market access to European companies (good for China anyways)?

I guess that this is bad for military action on Taiwan, though. If China tries military action, the EU can just shut off ASML (and behind it, Carl Zeiss) and the entire semiconductor supply chain will crumble. That's not to add the United States withdrawing dollar access (the EU will probably withdraw euro access as well).
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Sheesh. Why the ruckus about "CCP ignoring China" and" CCP bad cuz China not hab 7nm... ", CCP is selfffisssh...".

When did 7nm come into the picture all of a sudden? If you are interested in semiconductors and semiconductor industry then AnandTech.Com is a good website.

It's only since 2015 that 7nm and lower became a reality. The alarm bells for the death of Moore's Law has started ringing since 2011. From the 2013 to 2018, semiconductor fab giants were in a struggle to extract lower "nms" in any way possible. Intel's woes are quite legendary.

The point is - stop being pushy on China regarding not being able to catch up soon enough. The fact that China has 28 and 14 nms and even 12 nm fab capacity should not be taken for Granted. It's a big deal in itself.

The only company that holds the key for anything lower than 12nm is the Dutch ASML. China meanwhile needs to expand its chip fabrication and production rates to ensure that domestic demand is adequately met.

Either China can play the perpetual catch up game or stop and think about finally settling on a node /nm and then expanding production on it.

When China finally gets its hands on 7nm (which would be 2023, I think) then China will find that the industry has moved to 3nm. Then what?

The result is that China will have forsaken and forgotten to set up a sustainable production base in any nodes /nm.
In fact, there should be a delinking between Semiconductor research and production.
Let the state enterprises (in coordination with Fab companies) do the research bit.
While the fab companies (like SMIC) ought to engage in meeting the demands of the domestic base.

Waaah..." The CCP has been bad for China" . Waah.

China wouldn't be what it is, if not for the cunning, pragmatic and calculative CCP. China would be another India with a GDP of 4.5 trillion ( double that of Indias). The HORROR!!
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
You go to China and you try to topple the CCP, but the CCP and its followers have wayyyyy more force than you and your pathetic attempt to incite anti-CCP sentiment ("Does anyone else feel this way?" Don't make me puke), and they'll put you out of your misery. That is, if people like me who see you in China trying such a thing don't get to you first. What law is that? Mysterious, eh?

Getting a little paranoid there. Are physical threats allowed on this forum?

I don’t seek to foment discord why would I try to topple the CCP? I am pro-Chinese more than even pro my family. I wish they are massively reformed either from top down or due to discontent from the people. But as usual, Asians are happy to be quiet and obey.

You think this is a strength because you can’t think for yourself. East Asian people beat the rest of the world in everything; intellect both verbal and spatial, work ethic, respect and decency, crime, but never the ability of thinking for oneself. This is the major flaw that has caused lack of innovation while the Europeans flourished. Such an easy thing to fix, but because people can’t think for themselves it will never allow that door to be opened. One day I hope. It is the crucible to innovation.

It is very much relevant because it is necessary to determine starting point. You're writing as if the CCP's China started at the same tech level as the West and then fell behind, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. As I said, the CCP inherited a China too far behind Western science to even comprehend and today, it is superior in some areas, and able to challenge in others. All the work of the CCP.

Question answered too many times. Short-version: teet-sucking. Long version: go find old posts and figure it out.

We can agree to disagree then. I think the Koreans and Japanese and people of Hong Kong and Taiwan and Singapore built themselves mostly due to their own capabilities, and yes some US support. You think it was built solely on US support. Tens of trillions of wealth creation. Just because the US supposedly, what? Gave them some magic beans? Cool. Same applies for Africa too, or is the US secretly trying to halt their growth for some nefarious reason?

Gimme a citation for the 95-99% claim. I don't buy it. CAN'T make. What kind of bullshit are you trying to pull that everything that the West has over China, it's because of Chinese inability but everything that China has over the West, it's because they "won't" make it? The US WONT make 5G to compete with Huawei? LOL This is self-hatred if you're Chinese. What kind of sinophilia is this??

You’re right. US is literally incapable of installing a 5G network. Can you tell me specifically where the US lags not in IMPLEMENTATION, which is policy related, but in TECHNOLOGY? Thanks.

Without evidence? Japan's economy was growing too fast so the US forced it to negotiate new economic treaties including its currency. Next thing you know, it tanks. You didn't know that? You're not equipped for this debate, are you?

Predictable. Wasn’t the asset pricing bubble. It was “new economic treaties”. Fucking hell. You guys have identity disorder. Japan was going to have a gdp per capita 2x the US right, even though the Tokyo Palace Gardens were worth more than the entire state of California before the crash. Totally not a bubble. Just western spies or whatever bullshit.

Yeah yea, you don't want this, you don't want that. Nobody cares what you want. Here's the fact: the CCP is the leader of team China. They are not perfect, but doing the best job in the world right now. You can't do shit to change this leadership. The only thing you can decide is whether or not you want to be on team China; if you do, then the only thing you can do is accept the CCP as your leader. So do you wanna be on team China, Mr. "Sinophilia"?

First of all, I can say my opinion. It’s not your concern if people care or don’t. The fact you think an opinion should have this prerequisite shows why East Asia was always going to start behind Europeans during the industrial revolution and even centuries before. No one can be objective. I’m way more pro-China than you, because I recognize realities that would help the country over saving face and party loyalty.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Getting a little paranoid there. Are physical threats allowed on this forum?

I don’t seek to foment discord why would I try to topple the CCP? I am pro-Chinese more than even pro my family. I wish they are massively reformed either from top down or due to discontent from the people. But as usual, Asians are happy to be quiet and obey.

You think this is a strength because you can’t think for yourself. East Asian people beat the rest of the world in everything; intellect both verbal and spatial, work ethic, respect and decency, crime, but never the ability of thinking for oneself. This is the major flaw that has caused lack of innovation while the Europeans flourished. Such an easy thing to fix, but because people can’t think for themselves it will never allow that door to be opened. One day I hope. It is the crucible to innovation.



We can agree to disagree then. I think the Koreans and Japanese and people of Hong Kong and Taiwan and Singapore built themselves mostly due to their own capabilities, and yes some US support. You think it was built solely on US support. Tens of trillions of wealth creation. Just because the US supposedly, what? Gave them some magic beans? Cool. Same applies for Africa too, or is the US secretly trying to halt their growth for some nefarious reason?



You’re right. US is literally incapable of installing a 5G network. Can you tell me specifically where the US lags not in IMPLEMENTATION, which is policy related, but in TECHNOLOGY? Thanks.



Predictable. Wasn’t the asset pricing bubble. It was “new economic treaties”. Fucking hell. You guys have identity disorder. Japan was going to have a gdp per capita 2x the US right, even though the Tokyo Palace Gardens were worth more than the entire state of California before the crash. Totally not a bubble. Just western spies or whatever bullshit.



First of all, I can say my opinion. It’s not your concern if people care or don’t. The fact you think an opinion should have this prerequisite shows why East Asia was always going to start behind Europeans during the industrial revolution and even centuries before. No one can be objective. I’m way more pro-China than you, because I recognize realities that would help the country over saving face and party loyalty.
I advocate for reasonable Anti-CCP sentiments. I share (in part) your frustration and alarm. But there are multiple sides to this situation. In fact, the CCP might have done a lot more than what you/or me thinks.
The world of geopolitics and industrial trade is deeply interwoven and complicated. It is simply beyond our capabilities to surmise or even theorize what could be happening. Blaming the CCP is the easy way out. It's tempting to do, I agree.
 
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