Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

tidalwave said:

EUV product denial strategy, blocking all EUV products inside China this way make EUV technology prohibitive expensive and become marginalized and can't take off.

Click to expand...

That's a self-defeating strategy. It's nonsense - why would China intentionally block off its own development? If anything, EUV needs to be developed in China with the government assuring investors that their use of ASML patents won't be prosecuted in China and guaranteeing sales of their machines if they meet certain standards. The Dutch government should be given a simple ultimatum: grant the export licenses or ASML's patents get invalidated.

I think China should be able to get its own machine up in running in a couple of years once it unties the hand that's tied behind its back (the patents). China's ambient level of technology is great: it graduates millions of STEM students each year, it has a surfeit of capital looking for something to invest in, it has expertise in lasers, optics, plasmas, etc. All of the pieces are there, they just need to be put together. Luckily, ASML already figured it out and wrote down the recipe.

Chish said:

I can't read Chinese, that doesn't mean I am less informed and my assumptions are wrong. That's arrogance.

Click to expand...

You don't need to be able to read Chinese, just use machine translation.

ZeEa5KPul said:

That's a self-defeating strategy. It's nonsense - why would China intentionally block off its own development? If anything, EUV needs to be developed in China with the government assuring investors that their use of ASML patents won't be prosecuted in China and guaranteeing sales of their machines if they meet certain standards. The Dutch government should be given a simple ultimatum: grant the export licenses or ASML's patents get invalidated.

I think China should be able to get its own machine up in running in a couple of years once it unties the hand that's tied behind its back (the patents). China's ambient level of technology is great: it graduates millions of STEM students each year, it has a surfeit of capital looking for something to invest in, it has expertise in lasers, optics, plasmas, etc. All of the pieces are there, they just need to be put together. Luckily, ASML already figured it out and wrote down the recipe.

Click to expand...

Blocking EUV products from Samsung and TSMC flooding Chinese market and China itself doing EUV equipment development are two different things. Why do you think it's mutually exclusive?
If you don't block TSMC and Samsung EUV products , by the time China has its own EUV equipment,s it would already few generations behind TSMC and Samsung.
If CHina blocks them, TSMC and Samsung may just stuck at 5nm. If China doesn't block it, 5 years from now, TSMC and Samsung may already into 3nm or 2nm.
I don't see the self defeating strategy you talk about.

It's not the students that count, it's industrial supply chain that manufacture the components needed for EUV equipment.
To create such whole supply chain, it needs more than 5 years, 10 years or more likely.

tidalwave said:

well, you already counting the chicken before they even hatched.

At current US and China battle just count day by day and month by month. The dynamic can changed in instant.

Click to expand...

What do you suggest as a plan then?

And it has to actually work, unlike your suggestion to deny EUV chips access to the Chinese market.

I'd suggest pressure against the Dutch government which is stopping ASML from selling machines to SMIC.
The Netherlands has a small economy, but outsized multinationals such as Royal Dutch Shell, Unilever, Philips, NXP, Heineken, Bank etc
They would all argue for ASML to resume exports to SMIC.

But it may have to wait a change in government. The next election is 2021.

tidalwave said:

Blocking EUV products from Samsung and TSMC flooding Chinese market and China itself doing EUV equipment development are two different things. Why do you think it's mutually exclusive?
If you don't block TSMC and Samsung EUV products , by the time China has its own EUV equipment,s it would already few generations behind TSMC and Samsung.
If CHina blocks them, TSMC and Samsung may just stuck at 5nm. If China doesn't block it, 5 years from now, TSMC and Samsung may already into 3nm or 2nm.
I don't see the self defeating strategy you talk about.

It's not the students that count, it's industrial supply chain that manufacture the components needed for EUV equipment.
To create such whole supply chain, it needs more than 5 years, 10 years or more likely.

Click to expand...

As I've already pointed out, only half of the world's semiconductors passes through China.
Blocking TSMC and Samsung (and presumably Intel) EUV products from China - doesn't stop process node development.

There's still a big enough non-Chinese market to justify continued and full-scale development of EUV and the fabs.

AndrewS said:

As I've already pointed out, only half of the world's semiconductors passes through China.
Blocking TSMC and Samsung (and presumably Intel) EUV products from China - doesn't stop process node development.

There's still a big enough non-Chinese market to justify continued and full-scale development of EUV and the fabs.

Click to expand...

It's more than half.
Even if given you half, half is enough damage to slow them big time.

That's my opinion and you can have yours

tidalwave said:

If you don't block TSMC and Samsung EUV products , by the time China has its own EUV equipment,s it would already few generations behind TSMC and Samsung.

Click to expand...

Because Chinese companies like Huawei need access to those products to continue making their own products and making money. The Chinese government needs them to keep making money so it can tax that money and fund its industrial policies.

tidalwave said:

If CHina blocks them, TSMC and Samsung may just stuck at 5nm. If China doesn't block it, 5 years from now, TSMC and Samsung may already into 3nm or 2nm.
I don't see the self defeating strategy you talk about.

Click to expand...

That's just squeezing the balloon. If China stops making chips for re-export then the investments will be moved elsewhere and China would be the ultimate loser. China needs to retain its position of centrality in global supply chains - that's what allows its import substitution strategy to be successful. But import substitution needs to be complemented with strategic patent invalidation and far-sighted industrial policy.

tidalwave said:

It's not the students that count, it's industrial supply chain that manufacture the components needed for EUV equipment.
To create such whole supply chain, it needs more than 5 years, 10 years or more likely.

Click to expand...

China isn't creating a whole supply chain out of thin air. Elements of that supply chain exist for other purposes: lasers, mirrors, optics, etc. What China needs to do is repurpose them to make an EUV machine using ASML's patents. That takes far less time.

AndrewS said:

I'd suggest pressure against the Dutch government which is stopping ASML from selling machines to SMIC.

Click to expand...

Exactly right. Threatening the Dutch government with voiding ASML's patents in China and other sanctions would be a great start.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Because Chinese companies like Huawei need access to those products to continue making their own products and making money. The Chinese government needs them to keep making money so it can tax that money and fund its industrial policies.

Click to expand...

Come on man, the discussion is hinging on the assumption that US pressure eventually force TSMC and Samsung from supplying Huawei.

This thread is centrally based on this assumption.

tidalwave said:

Come on man, the discussion is hinging on the assumption that US pressure eventually force TSMC and Samsung from supplying Huawei.

This thread is centrally based on this assumption.

Click to expand...

China shouldn't help America in its goal to cut Huawei off from its suppliers. If it succeeds, then you'll get what you want - but China shouldn't help it. What China should dedicate maximum effort to is putting together a domestic EUV machine as soon as possible and supplying it to whomever needs it.

ZeEa5KPul said:

China shouldn't help America in its goal to cut Huawei off from its suppliers. If it succeeds, then you'll get what you want - but China shouldn't help it. What China should dedicate maximum effort to is putting together a domestic EUV machine as soon as possible and supplying it to whomever needs it.

Click to expand...

Of course if Huawei still get supply then no need to upset the balance.
But US government most likely get TSMC and Samsung stop from supplying Huawei this year 2020.
Not a simple modifications from current supply chain. To make those components suppliers need whole set of different tools.

In my opinion, it would take 10 years minimum. No way no how in 2 years

tidalwave said:

In my opinion, it would take 10 years minimum. No way no how in 2 years

Click to expand...

This is the country that went from its first atomic bomb to its first hydrogen bomb in 3 years (which took the US 11) - while it was still a backward peasant society with more than 50% illiteracy. I simply refuse to believe that given the enormous depth of engineering talent and experience in China today, the vast industrial supply chain, and a willingness to treat patents as recipe books, it would take a decade to make an EUV machine. That's bullshit, plain and simple.