Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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AndrewS

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If TSMC buckle under US pressure and stop supplying to Huawei , then Chinese government should step in and force TSMC to sell it's Nanjing fab to Chinese player SMIC, and use that plant to run SMIC 14/12nm. This way capacity greatly increased. Hopefully SMIC can extend to 7nm using nonEUV equipments

It's not a capacity issue. There's more than enough money for SMIC to build and equip any number of fabs that it wants.

What is lacking is the personnel and expertise to run the fabs, and develop further.
 

tidalwave

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It's not a capacity issue. There's more than enough money for SMIC to build and equip any number of fabs that it wants.

What is lacking is the personnel and expertise to run the fabs, and develop further.
You understand SMIC is only a $3billion revenue company, incapable to swallow up TMSC fab. Need others with deep pocket to partner up.
Running a fab is different than doing process development. Majority of work done is initial setup and after that just maintenance. Majority of TSMC fab personnel running Fabs are Chinese from mainland. You are acquired the fab you acquire those personnels. Initial setup are based on Taiwanese engineers but that's only initially.

I don't see the issue of lacking personnel to run the Fabs.
 

AndrewS

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You understand SMIC is only a $3billion revenue company, incapable to swallow up TMSC fab. Need others with deep pocket to partner up.
Running a fab is different than doing process development. Majority of work done is initial setup and after that just maintenance. Majority of TSMC fab personnel running Fabs are Chinese from mainland. You are acquired the fab you acquire those personnels. Initial setup are based on Taiwanese engineers but that's only initially.

I don't see the issue of lacking personnel to run the Fabs.

This year, SMIC just got $10 Billion for a new 14/10/7nm fab.
SMIC already already has partners with deep pockets if it needs funding.

There's no need to go grabbing the TSMC fab in China, when SMIC can just build another one anyway, with processes that it fully understands.

If SMIC was handed a TSMC fab, it would require SMIC process development personnel to understand yet another process node, which takes time and effort. Instead, they should be focusing on developing 12/10/7nm nodes.
 

tidalwave

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This year, SMIC just got $10 Billion for a new 14/10/7nm fab.
SMIC already already has partners with deep pockets if it needs funding.

There's no need to go grabbing the TSMC fab in China, when SMIC can just build another one anyway, with processes that it fully understands.

If SMIC was handed a TSMC fab, it would require SMIC process development personnel to understand yet another process node, which takes time and effort. Instead, they should be focusing on developing 12/10/7nm nodes.

Well TSMC doesn't leave any notes (hard/soft copies) behind in the Fab, there's nothing to read.
SMIC would just wipe out TSMC setup in the equipment and readjust them to SMIC own process,

if TSMC refuse to service Huawei due to US pressure, what's the point keeping them around in China??

On the contrary, if China completely stop using Taiwan Fabs after this hyopthetical situation, it would put pressure on TSMC, UMC, They will lose alot of revenues, they will downsize. And the CHina can lure those layoff engineers to mainland. That's how China can lure more taiwanese engineers to mainland and that's the benefit I see..
 
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AndrewS

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Well TSMC doesn't leave any notes (hard/soft copies) behind in the Fab, there's nothing to read.
SMIC would just wipe out TSMC setup in the equipment and readjust them to SMIC own process,

if TSMC refuse to service Huawei due to US pressure, what's the point keeping them around in China??

On the contrary, if China completely stop using Taiwan Fabs after this hyopthetical situation, it would put pressure on TSMC, UMC, They will lose alot of revenues, they will downsize. And the CHina can lure those layoff engineers to mainland. That's how China can lure more taiwanese engineers to mainland and that's the benefit I see..

Again, why go to the hassle of obtaining a TSMC 14nm fab, when SMIC is capable of building and equipping a 14nm fab by itself. All SMIC gets is cheap equipment, more revenue, and badwill. But SMIC has all the funding it wants.

If TSMC stops producing chips for Chinese customers, then I would agree that there's little point in having TSMC around, nor would TSMC have any reason to keep the TSMC fab in China.

But I reckon that TSMC won't stop selling to Chinese companies.

But let's say TSMC does stop selling to Chinese customers. This means SMIC is the only option, but they're still on 14nm, whilst TSMC is 2-3 generations ahead.

So again, instead of being distracted with another 14nm process node from TSMC - I think SMIC needs to focus process development for 10nm and 7nm.

I really think we've gone through all the arguments...
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
Again, why go to the hassle of obtaining a TSMC 14nm fab, when SMIC is capable of building and equipping a 14nm fab by itself. All SMIC gets is cheap equipment, more revenue, and badwill. But SMIC has all the funding it wants.

If TSMC stops producing chips for Chinese customers, then I would agree that there's little point in having TSMC around, nor would TSMC have any reason to keep the TSMC fab in China.

But I reckon that TSMC won't stop selling to Chinese companies.

But let's say TSMC does stop selling to Chinese customers. This means SMIC is the only option, but they're still on 14nm, whilst TSMC is 2-3 generations ahead.

So again, instead of being distracted with another 14nm process node from TSMC - I think SMIC needs to focus process development for 10nm and 7nm.

I really think we've gone through all the arguments...

if TSMC had stopped producing chips to China, it would be the end of TSMC as a company, and Taiwanese & Chinese govt know it
 

AndrewS

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Registered Member
if TSMC had stopped producing chips to China, it would be the end of TSMC as a company, and Taiwanese & Chinese govt know it

In the short run, it would be painful for TSMC, but they would ok.
In the long run, TSMC would have to reckon with SMIC becoming a real competitor in terms of technology and scale.

But TSMC would still survive, and should be at the leading edge of semiconductor process tech.
 

AndrewS

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US sanctions to be applied with a new threshold of 10% US content?

So I imagine most technology companies in Europe and Asia are designing out US content.

Tech Shudders as U.S. Weighs New Limits on Huawei Sales
Bloomberg

The U.S. government is weighing new limits on sales of chips and other vital components to China’s Huawei Technologies Co., sparking another furious round of lobbying by technology companies.

De minimis provisions exempt certain products if companies can prove the majority of work done to create the items happens outside the U.S. The current threshold effectively kicks in when 75% of the work occurs overseas. The administration is considering raising that to 90%, and broadening the list of products, people familiar with the discussions said. The change could come as soon as January, added the people, who asked not to be identified discussing policy deliberations.

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Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
So I guess the question is - how will those Asian and European companies react? I think that a lot will initially pause sales and then, after careful consideration, conclude that their products contain less than 10% American content.

The question then is how America will react and try to force these Asian and European companies to stop selling to Huawei. Will America try to fine these foreign companies? Will it slap sanctions?

A lot also comes down to the attitude of the governments. How will the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan deal with Trump's attacks on their companies?

US sanctions to be applied with a new threshold of 10% US content?

So I imagine most technology companies in Europe and Asia are designing out US content.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Again, why go to the hassle of obtaining a TSMC 14nm fab, when SMIC is capable of building and equipping a 14nm fab by itself. All SMIC gets is cheap equipment, more revenue, and badwill. But SMIC has all the funding it wants.

If TSMC stops producing chips for Chinese customers, then I would agree that there's little point in having TSMC around, nor would TSMC have any reason to keep the TSMC fab in China.

But I reckon that TSMC won't stop selling to Chinese companies.

But let's say TSMC does stop selling to Chinese customers. This means SMIC is the only option, but they're still on 14nm, whilst TSMC is 2-3 generations ahead.

So again, instead of being distracted with another 14nm process node from TSMC - I think SMIC needs to focus process development for 10nm and 7nm.

I really think we've gone through all the arguments...

I propose taking Intel Fab, you immediately said "Dont touch, Got to maintain good will"
I propose taking TSMC Fab if case it don't supply Huawei, again you said "Don't touch, Got to maintain good will"
i am seeing a pattern here.
Next year, US-CHina tech war continue, and SMIC got banned this time. So, what now??
What would you deal with it if SMIC got banned?? Meaning it wouldn't able to obtain any more US and EU parts.
 
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