In a year's time, everyone in the US will have forgotten about the impeachment.
It'll just be the economy, which won't be good if there is a recession.
Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.
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In a year's time, everyone in the US will have forgotten about the impeachment.
It'll just be the economy, which won't be good if there is a recession.
A few billions worth of machinery from a TSMC fab is not much of a consolation, particularly when SMIC can just buy the equipment anyway.
And suppose TSMC promises that the next 5nm node (ready in 4-6 months) will be sanctions free?
Of if their new $20B 3nm fab will be sanctions free, when it starts production in 2022
There's no need for rash actions.
Wishful thinking. TSMC uses US tools.
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The equipment at TSMC is priceless, for China it’s not something that money can buy. Preventing TSMC from doing business with the mainland clearly violates China’s sovereignty. I would consider it an act of colonization and signal war as retaliation.
If China’s semiconductor supply chain goes down, TSMC should go down with it. In no situation would the CCP allow Taiwan to supply the US with <7nm chips while doing no business with Huawei.
Technically speaking, China is more behind on semiconductors than in jet engines.
If China’s semiconductor supply chain goes down, TSMC should go down with it. In no situation would the CCP allow Taiwan to supply the US with <7nm chips while doing no business with Huawei.
Technically speaking, China is more behind on semiconductors than in jet engines.
They use some US tools - just like SMIC.
Apparently TSMC is at 15-20% US content.
But like other companies in Europe and Asia, I expect TSMC have been designing out US content since earlier this year.
I expect the worse case is 2 years to get to 5% US content.
The equipment that TSMC shipped to the China fab is for 14nm - and it is not priceless.
It is equipment that TSMC deemed outdated or commonly available to the Chinese semiconductor industry.
And SMIC is already producing 14nm chips.
Remember that in January when the new Entity List restrictions are potentially updated - it is really only Huawei and a few other companies that would be barred.
Other Chinese companies would still have access, so China's semiconductor supply chain is NOT going down overall.
Yes, China is further behind in semiconductors that in jet engines. But what point are you trying to make?
The problem is the goalpost is arbitrary, capricious, and ever moving... Then they can change the rules and say just 1% instead of 10% or 25% etc... The US doesn't want China to climb the tech value chain and will do anything and everything to try to stop China's progress. It all boils down to who has the upper hand...
It may be "a few" but it seems like it is strategically and surgically targeted to go after the "tip of the sword" in terms of attempting to cut China off at the very top. For example AI is one of the next big things much like 5G, and so recently US banned the Chinese AI firms such as SenseTime ( one of the most valuable and promising AI startups in the world) under the guise and pretext of human rights. TikTok (a dancing video app) is one of the first Chinese apps to really make it to the top internationally and even gotten very popular in the US, all of a sudden it is a "national security" issue and being investigated and targeted by the US congress. DJI may also be next.... The point is that they are asymmetrically targeting the best China has to offer, the ones that make it out and break out big time will be targeted for banning irrespective of the excuse or pretext used.
I think didn't recently the Microsoft Mr. Gates hint that the jet engines China imports from the West may have a 'kill switch' that disables them if during times of tension or war? Imagine a fleet of Boeing and Airbus all of a sudden cannot takeoff or fly anymore... Would definitely paralyze entire nation even with high speed trains... Even the COMAC C919 is using foreign engines...
The problem is that America is losing it's single biggest and most important tech market, so it is preventing other non American firms from talking advantage of the vacuum left by the American. If others continue and increase their trades with China, America will be left with a decreasing world market. Indian and Japanese markets may offer hope for America firms, but that is in the distant future and it's not guarantee. Others including India, Japan and Korea are not going to put all their eggs in the America basket. Meantime Trump America is building walls around itself.
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