Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

[bd popeye]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

Problem is... not many countries with aircraft carriers wanted to share their experience with China, much less to have joint exercises... And those who would have joint exercises might not be extremely well verse in CBG operations or doesn't even have a carrier.

True.. but.. I was referring to the ships they have now. They should be at sea more frequently performing naval exercises without a CV. Or they could use one to their larger ships, 071 or one of the AORs to be a proxy CV.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

China needs more capable escorts to send an effective CSG to sea. Also China needs to have more real World exercises with other navies. Send those ships to sea!!

I feel 052Cs and 054As are fairly capable escorts -- the problem is that there isn't enough of them. (there's also the gaping hole of ASW, which the PLAN is severly deficient in; more SSNs and helicopters are needed!)

And as seige has already said, even if the PLAN trains more, countries such as Japan, Korea and of course the US will make a very large fuss -- thus if China continues with open sea excercises there'll be a lot of fear mongering. The PLAN (and China in general) needs to show that they're not a force to be feared, or they'll never get enough training. -sigh- with the containment strategy China's under it doesn't look like this will change for the next few decades...

Deploying a couple of ships to Somalia is an option of course, but any "battle group formation" type excercises won't be seen very well upon by the rest of the world.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

The very fact that PLAN is building a bunch of diesel engine powered frigates after scores of missile boats indicates they are pursuing a defensive strategy, with perhaps a hint of operational capabilities beyond the EEZ such as fighting AK-waiving pirates. Large projects such as carrier or LPD seem to be more simbolic (to showcase the country's status) than (functionally) purposeful, due to the small quantity of them.

I wouldn't call the 071 only being a status symbol -- it's quite a capable amphibious assault ship, able to load a good amount of helicopters and landing crafts -- there's one recently we've seen as under construction, so the delay was probably due to smoothing out problems and maybe improving it in some ways.
071 would be very useful in a taiwan scenario, and aircraft carriers are needed to defend maritime transit routes in times of crisis (we can't rely on the US forever, and in any crisis, India or America could quite easily deny the ever so vital oil tankers)

 

[rhino123]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

True.. but.. I was referring to the ships they have now. They should be at sea more frequently performing naval exercises without a CV. Or they could use one to their larger ships, 071 or one of the AORs to be a proxy CV.

True... but even if it is other battleships, I do not think people will want to train with China... like Blitzo had said, US, Japan and Korea will make a big fuss out of it.

Also there is this China Threat sentiments in many nations, even those in South East Asia and those that are very close allies to US... so when it boils down... it really is not easy for China to want to train more until she was rich enough, with much more influence and strong enough (economically and militarily) then she could hold exercises as she deem fit.

 

[Asymptote]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

True... but even if it is other battleships, I do not think people will want to train with China... like Blitzo had said, US, Japan and Korea will make a big fuss out of it.

Also there is this China Threat sentiments in many nations, even those in South East Asia and those that are very close allies to US... so when it boils down... it really is not easy for China to want to train more until she was rich enough, with much more influence and strong enough (economically and militarily) then she could hold exercises as she deem fit.

Why is everyone think you must train with countries that have operated with CVBG to gain experience? Granted it will SPEED UP the process by learning from experienced operators, but USN was practically THE ONLY CVBG operator after WWII (French, British, practically doesn't count with their almost non-existent fleet). The USN trained among themselves and developed the doctrines themselves.

Its all really just numbers and setups - if China has 3 CVBGs, it could train them by having 1 as OPFOR against the other 2 or vice versa.

The USN didn't get to where it is now by sitting on its ass or just sitting pretty like a show pony. They are continuously in training or at war to gain that experience.
I totally agree with bd popeye that PLAN should do more training. I often get the impression that PLAN/PLA in general was more concentrated on making it "look good" like a show pony then actually making the force perform its function.
For example :

"Several reports by Chinese media revealed how unprepared most PLA units were when they first encountered the OPFOR. In one particular case, an infantry regiment of the PLA’s most elite 38th Group Army had its headquarters destroyed by the blue army’s special forces within few hours after the battle began."

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Does the PLAN have OPFOR? Will it suffer such fate as above - totally unprepared?!

 

[Blitzo]

Re: The PLAN's Future Areas of Opperation

Why is everyone think you must train with countries that have operated with CVBG to gain experience? Granted it will SPEED UP the process by learning from experienced operators, but USN was practically THE ONLY CVBG operator after WWII (French, British, practically doesn't count with their almost non-existent fleet). The USN trained among themselves and developed the doctrines themselves.

Its all really just numbers and setups - if China has 3 CVBGs, it could train them by having 1 as OPFOR against the other 2 or vice versa.

IF China could train with countries that had CVBGs then it'd be a massive boost to their carrier programme. Sure China could take decades to refine their skills to the level of the USN (Many, many decades; though mind it took the USN many decades as well), but if China had the option to take a shorter path I wouldn't see why they shouldn't.
The problem is that they don't have a shorter route, if anything they have a longer one than most other countries due to general anxiety and fear mongering by China's neighbours requiring the PLAN to justify the existence of their own CV.

And when/if china eventually gets three CVBGs, what do you think will happen before that time? The PLAN won't just get all the destroyers, AORs, SSNs and CVs necessary for a CVBG like that -snaps fingers- so they'll obviously have to develop doctrines and training procedures before they get their first CV up and running.
We don't know what the PLAN is devising right now -- hell we know jack all about most of the PLA's weapon and training, so don't think the PLAN is just sitting there and waiting for a CVBG to fall in their lap...

(btw the idea of one CVBG vs two others as OPFOR or whatever is kind of stupid -- the difficulty in operating a CVBG is in communications, logistics, area surveillance and defense between all ships, not to mention the internal workings of a carrier itself. Having an OPFOR CVBG won't exactly help in any of those regards)

The USN didn't get to where it is now by sitting on its ass or just sitting pretty like a show pony. They are continuously in training or at war to gain that experience.

Agreed that the PLAN and PLA in general needs more realistic training and deployment experience. This will take time -- we've seen how the PLAN rotating ships to somalia for much needed experience

I totally agree with bd popeye that PLAN should do more training. I often get the impression that PLAN/PLA in general was more concentrated on making it "look good" like a show pony then actually making the force perform its function.

Well some of China's deterrent policy is to show the PLA through parades and such so your "showpony" idea is kind of justified.
But it's kind of bewildering if you truly think the PLA is that incompetent and only worried about looks...

(Also I think the PLA public relations department needs an overhaul -- the photos we see of the PLA trainign and such are very artificial and propaganda-ish; but that's not the PLA's fault and doesn't determine the PLA's actual readiness)

For example :

"Several reports by Chinese media revealed how unprepared most PLA units were when they first encountered the OPFOR. In one particular case, an infantry regiment of the PLA’s most elite 38th Group Army had its headquarters destroyed by the blue army’s special forces within few hours after the battle began."

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And you shouldn't take a single example as overwhelming proof -- the PLA's had OPFOR for quite a while, in army and air force.

Does the PLAN have OPFOR? Will it suffer such fate as above - totally unprepared?!

MAybe, maybe not... really dude, that question is so subjective... We don't know the circumstances of that excercise, and it certainly doesn't necessarily reflect the PLA as a whole. Better to learn from a mistake and not allow that to happen in future.

The PLA does require more realistic training for all of its troops more regularly (and I believe they are on the way with this), but there's no need to freak out over that one excercise, don't take anything as gospel.

 

[SampanViking]

I can think of various countries that would be happy to train with the PLAN.

Russia - land forces are currently in exercise in Kazakhstan under the SCO flag and have conducted joint marine amphibious exercises in the last few years .

Brazil - Always keen to show a friendly face to the PRC

Sri Lanka - a keen friend of China and would have no problems encouraging the PLAN to be in the vicinity

Venezuela - goes without saying

South Africa - strong ties growing between these countries.

Cambodia - PLAN already has an annual event with this navy as I recall.

Pakistan - the all weather friend and ally

You can add a number of other African and South American states to that list long before you have to take refuge with the more colourful regimes that the media love to associate the PRC with.

 

[rhino123]

I can think of various countries that would be happy to train with the PLAN.

Russia - land forces are currently in exercise in Kazakhstan under the SCO flag and have conducted joint marine amphibious exercises in the last few years .

Brazil - Always keen to show a friendly face to the PRC

Sri Lanka - a keen friend of China and would have no problems encouraging the PLAN to be in the vicinity

Venezuela - goes without saying

South Africa - strong ties growing between these countries.

Cambodia - PLAN already has an annual event with this navy as I recall.

Pakistan - the all weather friend and ally

You can add a number of other African and South American states to that list long before you have to take refuge with the more colourful regimes that the media love to associate the PRC with.

Yes, these countries would be happy to train or hold exercises with the PLA. However if you looked at the list, only a few can really qualify to give PLAN valuable lessons.

Russia - that goes without saying, but up till now, I am only seeing land based training and exercises, do they have navy exchanges?

Cambodia - couldn't even feed their own people, and only had a couple of seaworthy ships. They might gain valuable lessons from China but not the other way round.

Brazil - had one Carrier, but was pretty old. China might learn some basic operational doctrine and thats it.

Sri Lanka - same as Cambodia

Venezuela - same as cambodia (I don't think she has too strong a navy)

South Africa - I haven't heard of anything spectacular with South Africa in term of navy.

Pakistan - strong in Air Force and Ground forces... but I don't think they are too capable in term of Navy.

Other countries that came to mind is NK (which basically is the same as Cambodia and China will not learn much but to show off their presence to Japan and SK and most probably antagonise them too).

Indonesia might be a good candidate... most other African countries... well... they are not strong in Navy too.

 

[maozedong]

I can think of various countries that would be happy to train with the PLAN.

Russia - land forces are currently in exercise in Kazakhstan under the SCO flag and have conducted joint marine amphibious exercises in the last few years .

Brazil - Always keen to show a friendly face to the PRC

Sri Lanka - a keen friend of China and would have no problems encouraging the PLAN to be in the vicinity

Venezuela - goes without saying

South Africa - strong ties growing between these countries.



Cambodia - PLAN already has an annual event with this navy as I recall.

Pakistan - the all weather friend and ally

You can add a number of other African and South American states to that list long before you have to take refuge with the more colourful regimes that the media love to associate the PRC with.

there is one important country - Myanmar, China is now under construction of a pipeline from Myanmar through China's Yunnan province, in the future Middle East oil to China, in part through the Indian Ocean, from the Myanmar harbor, direct transportation to China, all of the construction of pipeline projects, including construction of ports in Myanmar, by China is responsible for the construction.
China also plans to build an overland pipeline, directly from the Middle East through Pakistan, delivered to China.
Therefore, PLAN will be more active in the Indian Ocean, and as far as possible the use of Myanmar's harbor, also some Africa countries harbor, to ensure the oil transportation from Middle East and Africa.
of caurse that need much more times, at least 10 years over.
my 2 cens.

 

[rhino123]

Yes, these countries would be happy to train or hold exercises with the PLA. However if you looked at the list, only a few can really qualify to give PLAN valuable lessons.

Russia - that goes without saying, but up till now, I am only seeing land based training and exercises, do they have navy exchanges?

Cambodia - couldn't even feed their own people, and only had a couple of seaworthy ships. They might gain valuable lessons from China but not the other way round.

Brazil - had one Carrier, but was pretty old. China might learn some basic operational doctrine and thats it.

Sri Lanka - same as Cambodia

Venezuela - same as cambodia (I don't think she has too strong a navy)

South Africa - I haven't heard of anything spectacular with South Africa in term of navy.

Pakistan - strong in Air Force and Ground forces... but I don't think they are too capable in term of Navy.

Other countries that came to mind is NK (which basically is the same as Cambodia and China will not learn much but to show off their presence to Japan and SK and most probably antagonise them too).

Indonesia might be a good candidate... most other African countries... well... they are not strong in Navy too.

I can think of various countries that would be happy to train with the PLAN.

Russia - land forces are currently in exercise in Kazakhstan under the SCO flag and have conducted joint marine amphibious exercises in the last few years .

Brazil - Always keen to show a friendly face to the PRC

Sri Lanka - a keen friend of China and would have no problems encouraging the PLAN to be in the vicinity

Venezuela - goes without saying

South Africa - strong ties growing between these countries.

Cambodia - PLAN already has an annual event with this navy as I recall.

Pakistan - the all weather friend and ally

You can add a number of other African and South American states to that list long before you have to take refuge with the more colourful regimes that the media love to associate the PRC with.

there is one important country - Myanmar, China is now under construction of a pipeline from Myanmar through China's Yunnan province, in the future Middle East oil to China, in part through the Indian Ocean, from the Myanmar harbor, direct transportation to China, all of the construction of pipeline projects, including construction of ports in Myanmar, by China is responsible for the construction.
China also plans to build an overland pipeline, directly from the Middle East through Pakistan, delivered to China.
Therefore, PLAN will be more active in the Indian Ocean, and as far as possible the use of Myanmar's harbor, also some Africa countries harbor, to ensure the oil transportation from Middle East and Africa.
of caurse that need much more times, at least 10 years over.
my 2 cens.

An add on to what I have said... what SampanViking and maozedong had stated are only countries that are friendly to China and had not jump into the China threat issues - Yet.

However, being friendly to China doesn't necessary mean they would allow for military exchanges and joint exercises. It is not that simple.

There are many folds to this equation.

1) Do those countries that you state have any strong navies? If not, I don't think China would learn much from joint exercises with these countries (of course I am not saying that all of the stated countries had weak navies).

2) Why are these nations friendly to China? Mainly because they have something to gain. And all countries would weigh the pro and cons when they are going to have military exchanges with china... if the cons out-weigh the pro, then there will not be any military exchanges.

3) Do China really want to have joint exercise with Navies that operate practically just a few boats?

Of course there are many other agendas out there that might prevent these exercises from ever happening, such as,

a) Politic
b) Economic
c) International pressures.

So all of us know that China should have joint exercises with other strong navies so that she could actually exposes her weakness and improved on them, but sometime it is not whether China should... but sometime it boils down to whether she could or not?