Red___Sword
Junior Member
Hahahaha.... "CCAV"... is that allowed here?
China is indeed "exporting" all kinds of stuff nowadays.
Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.
- Thread starter USAalltheway
- Start date
Hahahaha.... "CCAV"... is that allowed here?
China is indeed "exporting" all kinds of stuff nowadays.
Furklan Island must mean the Falkland Islands, an archipelago in the South Atlantic. They were claimed and named by Britain in the 18th century but not occupied or populated. They were also claimed by French sailors from I suppose St. Malo, hence the Argentinian name Los Malvinas. They were occupied by Argentinian farmers (presumably keeping sheep ), who were ethnically cleansed as it is called nowadays and deported to Buenos Aires in 1832 by the Royal Navy. The British then imported/deported their own sheep farmers.
franco-russe
Senior Member
You are right, delft, about the French sailors from St. Malo, which is why the islands are known in French as Les Malouines.
zoom
Junior Member
I think July 1st is a bit close for the Varyag to leave port.I wonder if he got that from an official source though.In saying that, i'm always taken by surprise at the speed China gets things done so who knows.Thanks for uploading.
Red___Sword
Junior Member
Yes, It is. Thanks for clarify.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I would change the budget for PLAN to $100B and the time frame is 2020 (does it make sense ?). I'd expect the budget for PLA at that time would be around $325B. The assumption is ; from 2012 to 2020, PLA budget will increase at 15% a year (9% increase + 6% Yuan acceleration), so PLA budget in 2010 would be 106B x (1.15)^8 roughly $325B. At that time China' GDP would be around $12.5T, and the defence budget is roughly 2.6% GDP (healthy enough)
PLAN : $100B
PLAAF : $100B
Army : $90B
2nd artillery : $35B
China will have at least 2 operational conventional carriers and building 2 new generation carrier, perhaps nuclear powered (thorium based)
2 LHD
10 LPD (Type 071/+)
10 Replenishment ships (Qiandaohu class or better)
4 094 SSBN
2 096 SSBN
6 093 SSN
4 095 SSN
12 Kilo subs
16 Song subs
16 Yuan subs
9 Qing subs
12 052C/++
10 052D/++
30 054A/B
4 Cruisers (new class)
8 New Frigates (perhaps 054C or 058 ?)
50 056 Corvettes
120 FAC 022
50 JH-7A
50 JH-7B
50 J-15A
24 SU-30MK2
some others like H-6, helicopters, etc
PLAN : $100B
PLAAF : $100B
Army : $90B
2nd artillery : $35B
China will have at least 2 operational conventional carriers and building 2 new generation carrier, perhaps nuclear powered (thorium based)
2 LHD
10 LPD (Type 071/+)
10 Replenishment ships (Qiandaohu class or better)
4 094 SSBN
2 096 SSBN
6 093 SSN
4 095 SSN
12 Kilo subs
16 Song subs
16 Yuan subs
9 Qing subs
12 052C/++
10 052D/++
30 054A/B
4 Cruisers (new class)
8 New Frigates (perhaps 054C or 058 ?)
50 056 Corvettes
120 FAC 022
50 JH-7A
50 JH-7B
50 J-15A
24 SU-30MK2
some others like H-6, helicopters, etc
Last edited:
^ By 2020? Impossibru!
And the so called qing sub seems to be a test submarine anyway so it won't make sense for massed production.
The 2020 PLAN will feature maybe two carriers (varyag and first indigenous carrier), and certainly 3 071s, with a handful of 052Ds, the new cruiser and frigate mixed with the six 052C+s currently under construction.
Personally I think putting a date and trying to estimate what the PLAN will look like is wrong, I prefer to think about what the "critical mass" of the PLAN should look like, that is once they are done with modernizing the navy (kicking out all the old ludas, jianghus and jiangweis, even some of the early 052s).
I feel like a PLAN fleet inventory should include some 6 071 LPDs, 3 LHAs, 2 LPDs and 1 LHA per fleet so each fleet has the center of an amphibious assault group. Not quite up to par with the USN's expeditionary forces but will be better than what any other country can field, and should be enough for the PRC's needs for say, the next two decades.
A final carrier count should be 5, with one for NSF, two for ESF and SSF each.
I don't want to predict what the surface combatant force may look like, but going with A man's projection in the other thread, a three tiered force of 10k ton cruiser, 7k ton ddg, and 5k ton frigate distributed between the three fleets will be more than enough circa 2030 to support the PLAN's operations at home and abroad.
Also overlooked is the auxiliary ships. 2 or 3 new AORs are under construction at the moment, which will give PLAN a total of 5, 6 modern AORs (the two fuchi, the one purchased from russia, and the two or three new ones). To support the PLAN of le future, anywhere from 9 to 12 new AORs will be necessary.
The way SSNs and SSBNs are being built, I expect 4 095s and 4 096s to follow from the 4 093s and 4 094s which recently finished production. It really depends how capable the new gen subs are, to support the new fleet more subs obviously will be needed to escort them in blue water.
And the so called qing sub seems to be a test submarine anyway so it won't make sense for massed production.
The 2020 PLAN will feature maybe two carriers (varyag and first indigenous carrier), and certainly 3 071s, with a handful of 052Ds, the new cruiser and frigate mixed with the six 052C+s currently under construction.
Personally I think putting a date and trying to estimate what the PLAN will look like is wrong, I prefer to think about what the "critical mass" of the PLAN should look like, that is once they are done with modernizing the navy (kicking out all the old ludas, jianghus and jiangweis, even some of the early 052s).
I feel like a PLAN fleet inventory should include some 6 071 LPDs, 3 LHAs, 2 LPDs and 1 LHA per fleet so each fleet has the center of an amphibious assault group. Not quite up to par with the USN's expeditionary forces but will be better than what any other country can field, and should be enough for the PRC's needs for say, the next two decades.
A final carrier count should be 5, with one for NSF, two for ESF and SSF each.
I don't want to predict what the surface combatant force may look like, but going with A man's projection in the other thread, a three tiered force of 10k ton cruiser, 7k ton ddg, and 5k ton frigate distributed between the three fleets will be more than enough circa 2030 to support the PLAN's operations at home and abroad.
Also overlooked is the auxiliary ships. 2 or 3 new AORs are under construction at the moment, which will give PLAN a total of 5, 6 modern AORs (the two fuchi, the one purchased from russia, and the two or three new ones). To support the PLAN of le future, anywhere from 9 to 12 new AORs will be necessary.
The way SSNs and SSBNs are being built, I expect 4 095s and 4 096s to follow from the 4 093s and 4 094s which recently finished production. It really depends how capable the new gen subs are, to support the new fleet more subs obviously will be needed to escort them in blue water.
escobar
Brigadier
china's economy is slowing, i don't think the defense budget would be around $325B. The budget will increase around 10% in this decade or even less. It will be maintained between 1 - 1,5% of GDP not 2.6%.
we don't even know the budget distribution this year, so how could you made those forecast?
it seems it will be the case
sorry but some of those numbers are highly unlikely.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
antiterror why dont you multiply the whole lot by 3000 and then divide by 10 and you will get the PLAN inventory
seriously though its not good to just make up numbers for the sake of it, as far LPD is concerned, currently there are 4 Type 071 in or around the works and next will be 4 more new generation LPDs, the final LPD count is anyones guess
seriously though its not good to just make up numbers for the sake of it, as far LPD is concerned, currently there are 4 Type 071 in or around the works and next will be 4 more new generation LPDs, the final LPD count is anyones guess
Last edited:
What would you consider a new generation LPD?