antiterror13
Brigadier
What is your point ???? .. I don't get it ... "multiply by 3,000 and then divide by 10 ?" .. what are you smoking ? .. must be very strong
Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.
- Thread starter USAalltheway
- Start date
What is your point ???? .. I don't get it ... "multiply by 3,000 and then divide by 10 ?" .. what are you smoking ? .. must be very strong
Do not re-open threads more than six months old..
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ann...ng-important-please-read-2-20.html#post181843
bd popeye Super Moderator
SUPER MODERATOR NOTICE : (June 8, 2015)
Given a lot of interest in this type of thing...and new posts on other threads, I am re-opening this thread to discuss future PLAN Forecasts in terms of numbers and disposition.
I have renamed the thread accordingly.
Carry on.
Jeff Head Super Moderator
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ann...ng-important-please-read-2-20.html#post181843
bd popeye Super Moderator
SUPER MODERATOR NOTICE : (June 8, 2015)
Given a lot of interest in this type of thing...and new posts on other threads, I am re-opening this thread to discuss future PLAN Forecasts in terms of numbers and disposition.
I have renamed the thread accordingly.
Carry on.
Jeff Head Super Moderator
Last edited by a moderator:
I expect production to end at 24 and for a successor design to be built soon after.
I expect 056s to at least reach 60 units given how versatile they are, especially in the ASW role in green water and the littorals.
I think the future PLAN's future ships will be distributed among a "home fleet" that can be separated into one or two "combined home taskforces" for use in westpac, as well as one or two blue water "expeditionary taskforces" and maybe a few smaller ocean going "surface action groups".
I see no reason for the three fleet arrangement to be abolished, however I do expect different fleets will have rotating contributions to the "expeditionary taskforces". Once PLAN has three or more carriers, three or more LHDs and six or more LPDs distributed among the three fleets they can rotate those power projection ships for blue water patrols with escorts drawn relatively equally from the three fleets.
The rest/majority of the navy remaining at home will still retain carriers and amphibious assault ships and destroyers, and frigates, etc for operations within the first island chain. During peacetime most of the home fleet will remain a fleet in being situated at port, allowing the crew to rest, but during times of crisis in westpac or 1st island chain I expect all available ship types at home to be mobilized.
In other words, I do not expect 054A and other frigates to become the backbone of the PLAN's westpac or even first island chain's operations during peacetime and definitely not during wartime. But instead I expect one or more combined task forces consisting of blue water capable PLAN vessels including carriers, amphibious assault ships, destroyers, frigates to act as the primary offensive and defensive formations operating in westpac with SSNs and SSKs as well, supported by SSKs, corvettes, and FACs in more defensive positions closer to home waters.
Say, if we take a very conservative estimate of the PLAN's primary combatants and power projection vessels by 2030:
36 modern blue water capable frigates (24 054A + 12 next generation frigates)
18 modern blue water capable destroyers (12 052D + 6 052C)
8 modern blue water capable large destroyers (6 055s)
8 older blue water capable destroyers (2 052B, 2 051C, 4 Sovs)
3 LHDs
6 LPDs
3 carriers (Liaoning, CV17 and CV18)
During peace time I would expect maybe an "expeditionary task force" deployed in blue water made up of: 1 carrier OR 1 LHD + 2 LPDs, and 1 055 escort, 2 052C/D escorts, 4 054A or next gen frigate escorts
That would leave 2 or 3 carriers and 2 or 3 LHDs and 4 or 6 LPDs, along with 7 055s, 16 052C/Ds, 32 frigates at home available for missions in westpac.
Even if we draw away a few more ships to act as SAGs in blue water, say two SAGs each with 1 055, 2 052C/Ds, 2 frigates, that still leaves quite a number of surface combatants at home.
The point I'm getting at, despite China's blue water goals, it will likely still concentrate most of its forces for home defence. And westpac and even the first island chain, are very much large enough where large CSGs and combined taskforces can roam and fight against each other. It would be foolish to only leave frigates at home during peacetime, and it would be death to send only frigates against potential opposition during wartime given the kind of opposition PLAN faces.
Frigates will probably remain the single largest "number" of vessel type for PLAN for the future (assuming we don't count 055s as DDGs in the same weight class as 052C/D), however in westpac and the 1st island chain during wartime they will act as pickets and escorts for large formations rather than the primary offensive/defensive backbone of a formation.
During peacetime frigates may conduct a significant portion of 1st island chain patrols, but I also expect 052C/Ds and 055s, as well as older DDGs like 051C, 052B and Sovs, to make a significant contribution.
Capabilities necessary for blue water missions such as carriers, large destroyers, and amphibious assault ships are just as necessary at home in the first island chain as they are in the Indian Ocean or elsewhere -- in fact I'd say they're more necessary closer to home.
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In the forseeable decades the PLAN's ship distributions may best be seen similar to the Royal Navy during/on the eve of WWI.
A large, immensely capable "Grand Fleet" deployed at home made up of a number of smaller fleets/taskforces constituting the majority of the navy's order of battle, against a powerful naval foe operating close to home (German High Seas Fleet), but also a number of significant but smaller taskforces and detachments around the globe (e.g. Mediterranean, asia, Australia, NZ)
I think this is a pretty good estimate.
But I would add the 60 Type 056s vessels. They are really light FFGs and are also blue water capable IMHO. They could easily serves as escorts for major TFs.
I added the 28 Type 072 vessel which the PLAN is still building. All of them in that time frame would be Type 072 IIIs and Type 072As.
That's a total of:
60 light frigate surface combatants
70 major/principle surface combatants (FFG, DDG)
37 Major Amphibious vessels (LST, PLD, LHD)
3 carriers (CV)
...170 principle surface combatants...and does not include what will undoubtedly be:
50+ modern conventional submarines
12 (or so) newer SSNs (093s and 095s)
So, over 230 principle combatants in the PLAN fleet...and all of them will be modern and capable.
Could they build more? Probably. But they have to plan to sustain. To staff...to train...and then to regularly exercise.
Something like this is entirely doable, and I think well within the PLAN's reach...both building wise, staffing wise, and operationally.
Such a fleet will forever change the balance of power in the Western Pacific.
The other nations will add their own resources...and the US will "pivot" to match. But the essence is that the PLAN will have taken its place a major, blue water, naval power in the Westpac where historically she has not been.
And face it, with this force, they will be second only to the US Navy in size and capability world-wide. But the US force is covering the entire globe. This force will be much more focused in the Pacific.
joshuatree
Captain
I think it's a bit soon to expect a successor design to be built. Usually, a class of vessel can remain in service for 20-30 years. With so many new classes coming online in the past decade and with other existing gaps in areas such as LHDs, carriers, etc, I think the 054A line will be around a bit longer. And if any of the rumors are true about 054A exports, you want to keep that manufacturing line open. What may be better is if one of the two shipyards can convert over to 052D manufacturing to build up the destroyer fleet and the other larger shipyards can move on to LHDs, etc. They could build more 054As with incremental upgrades like switching over to their standardized VLS. As much we discuss about new models, the human resource factor is also important. It's easier and better to have crews get really proficient with a few platforms rather than be scattered across a myriad of models.
They may be blue water capable but it be pretty rough given their smaller displacements. Since they've built around 25 of them and the general consensus is that another 35 will be built, I think they should enlarge the hull slightly to give them a UAV hangar and the ability to hold more provisions for those that will do TF escort duty. There's already various derivatives of the 056 in their export line and Coast Guard so lengthening the hull a bit isn't that difficult - I know there's the concern about ship dynamics but that's why I think a slight lengthening is possible. Armaments should be the same in number to not disrupt top weight.
In addition to these, I think by 2030 some of the older frigates will still be active, so I would add:
6-12 older frigates (2 * 054 + some of the 053H3)
though I guess these will only be used within the first island chain.
I think if the PLAN saw the 056 as a real blue water vessel they would have already sent one to the gulf of Aden. But they might use them as part of the ASW screen for a TF in/near the first island chain.
Is it actually that soon at all, considering the advancements in technology that have been made since the first 054A was launched? The PLAN has always been quite good in buying a sensible amount of ships relative to the capability they provided relative to the time they could have an improved capability commissioned.
Yes, absolutely 054As will serve for 20-30 years, but I'm not talking about a frigate designed to succeed the 054As in service but rather to supplement and operate alongside them, just as 052Ds supplement and operate alongside the 052Cs. New technologies from the common VLS, to active radar guided SAMs, newer propulsion types, greater automation, improved combat systems, improved radars for frigate sized ships, all make the current 054A look a bit long in the tooth.
That said, I'm not necessarily proposing an entirely new hull for succeeding 054A. I think they could potentially lengthen the hull, add in the new common VLS, overhaul the ship's electronics from radar to combat management, replace things which aren't needed like the terminal illuminators, and maybe even adopt IEPS type propulsion... all these improvements would more than warrant designating a new designation.
Building an 054A successor doesn't mean they'll lose the manpower, the experience, the skills, or the supporting equipment they will need to build export 054As -- for instance the F22Ps built for Pakistan at HD were effectively 053H3s, but 053H3s had been out of production at HD for three or more years at that point. Also the C28As built for Algeria are an original hullform design. No, if anything, building a more advanced frigate will mean more work for the shipyard and enhance their skills and efficiency to build ships that the customer wants.
We don't know enough about the shipyard's distribution of personnel to know if cutting frigate production will mean they can suddenly increase the rate of LPD or LHD production -- for instance in 2010 and 2011, HD launched 054As at a rapid pace at about two per year while also launching one 071 per year. Similarly I don't expect destroyer production to suddenly be cut at either JN or DL. Both shipyards are expected to continue with 055s after they're done with 052Ds, and they will also be the contractors for carrier production.
As for commonality in crewing, that is the challenge of introducing new types of ships to a fleet. On the one hand, common crews and logistics and support networks for a single class of ship allows for reduced cost, but on the other hand if you stick only to a single family of core capabilities you will miss out on other vital capabilities necessary for your job, especially if they are improved ship types with newer technology. Regarding 054As I think the time has come to move onto a new class.
PLAN already have some difficulties in this in their frigate fleet in terms of commonality, they have older 053s of various variants. Their destroyer fleet is even worse, as prior to 052C every recent class of warship arrived in pairs with their own slightly different support needs and crews.
But this should not frighten the PLAN from introducing new ship types when it is necessary. 24 054As is a great run, but their capabilities are not going to be competitive in coming years, and PLAN needs a newer frigate design to supplement them. Any new frigate design will not be built in small numbers, 12-24 at least -- and just like 054As they can rely on economies of scale and eventually a large pool of crew experienced in the class.
Also, regarding manning, in coming years I expect frigates built prior to the first 054 to be retired, and many of those crews will be re-assigned to new ships, and the PLAN will also probably seek to increase total manpower numbers. The increase in absolute manpower will contribute to a sustainment and expansion in manning major combatants.
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Personally I think my estimate (at least for surface combatants) is a bit on the conservative side.
I put it at about 36 DDGs and 36 FFGs by 2030, but I think it's very possible to reach nearly 48 of both types in the water, depending on how well they manage an expansion in manpower and the state of the domestic economy in funding such vessels.
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Don't you mean 2030?
That was the original date you were targeting I believe.
There is no doubt that they could produce the larger shear numbers...but I believe the numbers you mentioned as conservative are more doable with the other factors considered.
Whoops, yes a typo. Let's see if I can edit it.
I think whatever kind of force they end up with at 2030 will be dependent on a sense of urgency as the key driver, as that will determine the funding the military can get to not only build new vessels but also to train and retain the crew.
We'll see, I suppose.
I'm also surprised at how relatively little focus there has been in a number of western PLA observers at the increase in surface combatant capability over the last decade (namely surrounding the rapid induction of 054As and 052C), not to mention few places making accurate projections of the PLAN's surface combatant force by 2020, 2025 and 2030 and beyond. One only needs to look back five years, or ten years to appreciate the advancement in capability made so quickly and the potential progress that can still be made in little time. I would say the PLAN's surface combatant capabilities are more worth watching than their carrier ambitions, amphibious assault goals, and even submarine development.