Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

[franco-russe]

I assuming you are refering to my post?

hehe, it is an old political & historical BS. Simply put, there are arguable (and negotiable) claims for China to take some "way out" to sea of japan, although it is for some (dum) political reason for China to "give" those soil to Korea handsomely at first place. (not to mention the czar "got" this part of soil in a "better-no-to-mention" way, it is a too old topic to talk here)

The point is, of all the players surrounding "that spot", they name it "sea of japan", emotionally showing the favor. And if you read Chinese, 中国南海 and 南中国海 got "too different taste" to be mixed, that's why grammarly, I use the term "Chinese South Sea".

When the Russians and the Chinese were discussing delimitation of the common border in the 1990’s, it was rumoured that the Chinese had requested that Russia cede the mouth of Tumen river so as to provide an outlet to the Sea of Japan for Manchuria (pardon me, the Northeast). This was promptly vetoed by the Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy, who had no desire to see the PLAN in the Sea of Japan (there was enough to worry about as it was).

I understand that China has instead leased port facilities in North Korea (Najin, as far as I remember), but that of course is strictly commercial. As is no doubt the case of port facilities in Burma, while Gwadar, I think, is of no use to anyone.

Unfortunately, I do not read Chinese, and find the distinction between the Chinese South Sea and the South Chinese Sea (中国南海, 南中国海) much too subtle for my crude Western mind. I really do not see the problem in the name of the Sea of Japan, which indeed all outsiders use, include the Russians, who might well have felt entitled to call it the Vostochnoye More, as the Koreans do in their language.

(P.S. Cannot we get rid of these childish additifs, such as "franco-russe likes this")

 

[samba]

I didn’t realise the term ‘string of pearls’ carried such political connotations, I wont use it from now on.

From the pictures ive seen, i do agree that of the ports in gwader and sri lanka certainly dont look like they are for keeping a permanent PLAN prescence, but surely they can still provide a limited amount of support and resupply. Do you think that China would have no preferential treatment in these ports at all?

If its true that Burma is also a commercial port then the PLAN wont find it easy operating in Indian Ocean.

I'm surprised that in this thread, the only theatre of operations agreed upon is the South China Sea

 

[Spartan95]

From the pictures ive seen, i do agree that of the ports in gwader and sri lanka certainly dont look like they are for keeping a permanent PLAN prescence, but surely they can still provide a limited amount of support and resupply. Do you think that China would have no preferential treatment in these ports at all?

If its true that Burma is also a commercial port then the PLAN wont find it easy operating in Indian Ocean.

I'm surprised that in this thread, the only theatre of operations agreed upon is the South China Sea

Warships can go into any ports as long as the host country agrees to it. Who finances the building of the port itself is a separate issue.

Take for example the ships PLAN sends to the Gulf of Aden. Those ships have called into ports in Southeast Asia, Africa, Middle East, etc. Doesn't really matter who financed or built those ports.

As for preferential treatment, that comes from relations between the countries. Countries on good terms will obviously allow PLAN ships to call at its ports, whereas adversaries are unlikely to allow it (imagine Soviet ships calling in US ports during Cold War).

There is also the difference between a commercial port and a naval base. What PRC is financing for are commercial ports, not naval bases. But, this does not preclude warships (from any country) from using commercial ports for port calls. Naval bases, on the other hand, are designed specifically to support warships and their logistic requirements (repair, maintenance, ammunition, etc).

As for operating in the Indian Ocean, PLAN is already operating in Gulf of Aden (which is further away). Hence, there is no reason why it can't operate in the Indian Ocean. The limitation though is that they will need replenishment tankers to support their warships, as is being done in the Gulf of Aden.

 

[kwaigonegin]

.............As for preferential treatment, that comes from relations between the countries. Countries on good terms will obviously allow PLAN ships to call at its ports, whereas adversaries are unlikely to allow it (imagine Soviet ships calling in US ports during Cold War).

You said it right there.. DURING WAR (cold or otherwise). goodwill visit is one thing or just any other types of visit/exercises for that matter. but what matters most is during conflict can PLAN still count of those foreign ports for resupply, repair, berthing etc?
Even neutral countries may decide to close their ports to certain navies in times of war.

 

[Spartan95]

You said it right there.. DURING WAR (cold or otherwise). goodwill visit is one thing or just any other types of visit/exercises for that matter. but what matters most is during conflict can PLAN still count of those foreign ports for resupply, repair, berthing etc?
Even neutral countries may decide to close their ports to certain navies in times of war.

Are you expecting the PLAN to fight a war in the Indian Ocean in the near future?

Personally, I don't see that happening, especially if they need to enforce sovereignty in South China Sea. Much better to concentrate forces in the 1st Island Chain to protect its territories than to venture beyond the 2nd Island Chain and risk being taken apart piecemeal.

If there is a need for resupply, repair, berthing, etc surely the PLAN can count on access to Pakistan's naval bases (rather than commercial ports)?

 

[samba]

Are you expecting the PLAN to fight a war in the Indian Ocean in the near future?

Personally, I don't see that happening, especially if they need to enforce sovereignty in South China Sea. Much better to concentrate forces in the 1st Island Chain to protect its territories than to venture beyond the 2nd Island Chain and risk being taken apart piecemeal.

If there is a need for resupply, repair, berthing, etc surely the PLAN can count on access to Pakistan's naval bases (rather than commercial ports)?

I understand that PLAN's vessels can dock at any port where give permission, but how common is that? for example do the chinese ships on antipiracy missions resupply at the same ports as the US navy ships? Or the Indian Navy ships?

 

[Red___Sword]

When the Russians and the Chinese were discussing delimitation of the common border in the 1990’s, it was rumoured that the Chinese had requested that Russia cede the mouth of Tumen river so as to provide an outlet to the Sea of Japan for Manchuria (pardon me, the Northeast). This was promptly vetoed by the Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy, who had no desire to see the PLAN in the Sea of Japan (there was enough to worry about as it was).

I understand that China has instead leased port facilities in North Korea (Najin, as far as I remember), but that of course is strictly commercial. As is no doubt the case of port facilities in Burma, while Gwadar, I think, is of no use to anyone.

Unfortunately, I do not read Chinese, and find the distinction between the Chinese South Sea and the South Chinese Sea (中国南海, 南中国海) much too subtle for my crude Western mind. I really do not see the problem in the name of the Sea of Japan, which indeed all outsiders use, include the Russians, who might well have felt entitled to call it the Vostochnoye More, as the Koreans do in their language.

(P.S. Cannot we get rid of these childish additifs, such as "franco-russe likes this")

Comrade (pardon me, pal), naming something, or "feel the meaning" of any name, is of course anyone's own sense, but how you call it, simply shows your attitude. (like calling "the communist China" everytime, FREAKING 20 YEARS AFTER the end of cold war, still, on your day-to-day media)

You missed the point, that I am not trying to comment on modern geopolitical BS that "the czar and japan took China's dominion when she is weak, and we are now going to took it back!" - but maybe you noticed the NAMING of "that spot" to be what is now commonly known as "sea of japan", took place at THAT time, also. Me, for one, got certain attitude for that. (It would be SO WRONG if the SU won the cold war or hot war, and calling New York "New St.Petersburg")

So attitude (or, emotional favor) is all I am talking about. It is the same attitude, MAKES the commercial ports where ever Chinese faces shows up, BECAME some PLAN-Naval-base-in-the-making, in the media.

FYI, commonly, people call it "South China Sea", not "South Chinese Sea" (or better, "Chinese South Sea"), me for one, would "childishly" happy if everyone starts to call it like the 2nd one (3rd one even better), in English. - It is all but "jeu de mots" (paronomasia), but isn't "LEGAL BUSINESS" also a "jeu de mots" (paronomasia)?

 

[delft]

The North Sea in Europe is not to the north of England but of Frisia, now in the Netherlands and north west Germany. It got that name more than a thousand years ago and no-one thinks about it. ( The Danes call it the West Sea in their language ).But the Persian Gulf is to some the Arabian Gulf. That seems to be a problem still.

 

[Spartan95]

I understand that PLAN's vessels can dock at any port where give permission, but how common is that? for example do the chinese ships on antipiracy missions resupply at the same ports as the US navy ships? Or the Indian Navy ships?

I'm sure the PLAN ships resupply somewhere during their anti-piracy deployments. But exactly where they resupply, I'm not sure. Resupply does not make exciting news for media to report.

As for warships calling into other countries ports, that's a fairly common thing to do. In Singapore, we see warships calling in from a huge number of countries every year. Quite hard to miss a bunch of sailors out having fun at night spots after they have spent weeks/months out at sea.

 

[Red___Sword]

I'm sure the PLAN ships resupply somewhere during their anti-piracy deployments. But exactly where they resupply, I'm not sure. Resupply does not make exciting news for media to report.

As for warships calling into other countries ports, that's a fairly common thing to do. In Singapore, we see warships calling in from a huge number of countries every year. Quite hard to miss a bunch of sailors out having fun at night spots after they have spent weeks/months out at sea.

Singapore have this unique thing called "Strategic Important Location" to be (and HAVE TO BE), everybody's friend. Whitout harsh meaning, I mean, Singapore just can't afford to (anyhow) reject anyone's request to port / park / resupply at her bay.

I think what samba @ #64 is trying to ask, "how friendly is PLAN being regarded, at the places surrounding her operation area?", "Was PLAN able to go-where-ever-she-wants-whenever-she-wants to any port for supply / dock, which is in no-chance anyone is going to reject her request?"

I am not aware of the most current mission / batch of PLAN task force fleet, but the very early 2 or 3 batches, they stay on sea for the whole duration (which is whole 3 months). Resupply be supply ship, for the whole duration, of which the supply ship have to "make itself available from the impossible schedule", to dock to certain ports that's willing and capable, for resupply, while the task force fleet keep running.

Everything is political (like it or not). Hell, PLAN is currently NOT ABLE TO "dock anywhere anytime she wishes" for all kinds of political BS, in real time (means you don't even know this trip you can dock at this port or not untill you tried or told).

Honorable speaking, to USN (and other traditional navy powers alike), going out for a deployment is like going out for a walk; while for PLAN, any deployment is an "you are on your own" expedition into a place "untill told otherwise, expecting demurral / resentness".

Edit:

The "edit" part is a little political, so I turn myself in first, if found not-suitable to speak, please delete only this part.

Why the hell PLAN, and in large, China, has been regarded like THAT? If anyone found the above post a little confusing.

- Because with a little efforts from the CURRENT power player(s), China and of course PLAN, has simply BEING LABLED, like Soviets, and thus, expecting a similar hospitality. Sure, no one would break the face to actually "reject" you, but "demurral" is expected.

And without carrier(s) and the sheer number of LDHs and support ships like what USN possess, the typical "2 warship plus one supplyer" of "task force" just makes the day worse - for the PLAN personnel, as well as the effective of "protective" among the escort fleet - not to mention there are so many not able to catch up the escort fleet schedule, and "nude run" across the pirates-infested area (which is RATHER HUGE).