Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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tphuang

tphuang

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bustead said:
Is it possible to ram Pelosi's plane with a UAV? Better than risking a pilot or opening fire. You know, you can always say "My drone got jammed. It was an accident." or something like that if you want to de-escalate
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They are not going to do that. that would actually be crazy. It serves no purpose. If china really wants to do something crazy and slightly less reckless, they have the assets in place to take penghu. They will get sanctioned but it's unlikely to get into a full on war. What you are suggesting will definitely start a war.

Again, I do not think any of this will happen. I think they can make huge point by flying close to Taiwan, lock onto a few f16s, jamming up air defense systems and firing a bunch of missiles near by.

I am hoping none of this gets anywhere near that serious.
 
BoraTas

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tphuang said:
Myanmar and Cambodia are likely to be helping china in any conflict by allowing china to use their military bases. This would allow them to deal with the threat of America launching attacks from Diego Garcia and Australia. Again, I am just looking at things from Chinese perspective. If they are able to knock out american and Japan forces in the first week, that would change a lot of nations perspectives quickly. China would be really able to pressure them to pick china for the duration of conflict. I am sure America will try to pressure these countries to go the other direction, but they will fear the weight of Chinese military a lot more. That's kind of the issue facing America helping Taiwan here. If it's bases get significantly degraded in the initial attacks, it's allies in the region will be left alone and neutral countries will likely cut deals with china.
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I agree with all of this. This is also why PLAAF and PLARF are the best assets for China-SK and China-Japan relations. China didn't gain any political capital from its pacifism and trade ties. Being a good trade partner and being harmless are apparently not enough. The way to keep SK and JP out of conflicts is being able to defeat the US forces in East Asia and then still being able to field enough force to bomb SK and JP into oblivion. This is how they don't side with the USA. I am a pacifist but I am not a denier of reality. This is how geopolitics works.

*** Tangent to topic: If SK deepens its cooperation with the USA, then China should support NK comprehensively. If SK is ignoring China's security concerns, China should ignore SK's concerns too.
 
hullopilllw

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The Biden admin imho make a big mistake by allow the idea of a visit by Pelosi to materialise into something beyond mere political boast. As such now the US risk either a war(without a clear prospect of easy winning) or failing to follow up on her intention to directly step onto China's red line as demonstration of her hegemony.

But Biden could not publicly dissuade her, nor could the US accept that its Taiwan policy was being swayed by China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553360116510257152
 
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zgx09t

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One can argue it's not entirely without any benefits to China to have an actual war with US, especially involving limited nuclear exchanges with each other. It would set the course of Chinese national phyche and political landscape for the next several centuries, or millennia, setting a clear boundary of what is socially and politically acceptable norms, no more chances for Chinese gorbachev or bunch of corrupt traitors coming to power and rot China inside out. Certain skin color may not be able to walk in broad daylight in Chinese streets.

Only thing is figuring it out how to configure a 300 steps escalation ladder to frustrate and wear them out to let them take the first shot.
 
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tygyg1111

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zgx09t said:
One can argue it's not entirely without any benefits to China to have an actual war with US, especially involving limited nuclear exchanges with each other. It would set the course of Chinese national phyche and political landscape for the next several centuries, or millennia, setting a clear boundary of what is socially and politically acceptable norms, no more chances for Chinese gorbachev or bunch of corrupt traitors coming to power and rot China inside out. Certain skin color may not be able to walk in broad daylight in Chinese streets.
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National psyche can change quickly with change of governments, ala song / tang / ming / qing. Also taiwan and SK over the last few years.
Better to guarantee known quantities (safe development) than to hope for an unknown
 
tphuang

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zgx09t said:
One can argue it's not entirely without any benefits to China to have an actual war with US, especially involving limited nuclear exchanges with each other. It would set the course of Chinese national phyche and political landscape for the next several centuries, or millennia, setting a clear boundary of what is socially and politically acceptable norms, no more chances for Chinese gorbachev or bunch of corrupt traitors coming to power and rot China inside out. Certain skin color may not be able to walk in broad daylight in Chinese streets.

Only thing is figuring it out how to configure a 300 steps escalation ladder to frustrate and wear them out to let them take the first shot.
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I think the talk of nuclear escalation have been talked about quite a few times on this forum and it's quite clear that a nuclear exchange would favor America just due to where the assets are located. Given the existing geographical advantages we've talked about for PLA, limited nuclear exchange would be pretty bad move. If you can win conventional war, why would you even consider nuclear.

This is why I hate when conversation degrade to nukes. You have them as a credible deterrence, not as a first use tool.
 
tphuang

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Patchwork_Chimera said:
Oh absolutely, I don't anticipate the PLA letting so much as a single tanker tie up anywhere in Japan if they can help it. It might be very mean, but it's war. Similarly, one of the notional CONEMPs to degrade Anderson AFB and Naval Base Guam is to strike the 4 major (vulnerable, hydrocarbon-reliant) power plants on the island, which would completely gut Anderson and NSG's electrical infrastructure, alongside other attacks. It would also have the follow on effect of denying freshwater to the island, as Guam Waterworks Authority would no longer be capable of distributing freshwater throughout the island - a horrific, but helpful follow on effect.

There's no such thing as a "dirty" move in a game where your objective is to kill as many humans as possible just for wearing a different uniform. As such, we don't expect the PLA to try fighting "clean."
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I swear that you are teaching too many bad ideas.
 
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zgx09t

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tygyg1111 said:
National psyche can change quickly with change of governments, ala song / tang / ming / qing. Also taiwan and SK over the last few years.
Better to guarantee known quantities (safe development) than to hope for an unknown
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Nationalism and hatred are as powerful as liberal feely touchy rainbow ideals, if not more.
You are at least as good as your sparring partner.

It's not like Xi Jingpin would live forever, or the next guys coming up are not corrupt, or total soldout fuckups, rotting China inside out.
There are no known quantities in politics and how governments are formed, especially if you are thinking about a long game.
 
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