It's counterintuitive, but China has to act really dangerous and dead set to go to kingdom come and fuck everything and everyone really hard when it comes to achieving status quo in the strait without actually causing or having any open kinetic conflict. Make sure they see the hard-on and realize China is ready to fuck. That's the only way to prevent an actual war, as US never ever fought a peer power with nukes before. If their weapons and soldiers, sailors perform as much as 40% of their marketing brochures and PR photos claim against a peer power in a kinetic exchange, that'd count as a miracle. Making sure they are clear-eyed about something bigger roman candles are coming to at least 250 biggest cities would make them chill as a stoned out dude. That's why they don't directly fight the Russians. Chinese captains and pilots should be as reckless as possible in each encounter near the Chinese borders as they don't have any good reasons to be there except aggression.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Agreed. China must do something entirely uncharacteristic of China and unexpected of China....
it's almost as if Russia knew exactly when to poke them to get them to forget China.
It's the other way around, actually. Whenever the US sustains some focus on China for any length of time, actors like Russia and Iran sense the freedom of action this gives them and then act themselves, which inevitably distracts the US and pulls it away from China. And the stronger China becomes, the more scope Russia et al. will have because it will take more and more US resources to deal with China.
They're the biggest beneficiaries of China's rise geopolitically from this effect alone, but add to that the trade and investment from China that blunts the effects of sanctions.
Yet some westerners still cope believing that Russia isn't gonna help China in basically every situation.
When the USSR fell, China had smoothed out all the ideological disputes with Russia due to Russia being desparate now for allies and China also lost its hardline Maoist faction.
Russia, in terms of foreign policy, is already de facto an extension of Chinese foreign policy.
not sure how many drones can overtake a C-17 flying at altitude unless it was a WZ-8. an interception by a WZ-8 would be badass though and would put the ball in the US court to either ignore it and risk ramming, or shoot it down and starting WW3.
Put a Taliban militant on a boat in the strait where the plane is landing and give him a Stinger.
Literally nothing the US can do.
Why waste a WZ-8 when you can use the far cheaper air-launched PL-10 drone
Depending on when this happens. Domestically, a large portion of domestic bus fleet and taxis have already transitioned to EVs. NEV % in China this year is basically going to be in the high 20s and that number will get to about 50% in the next couple of years. As such, if a conflict takes place later part of this decade, there is very little hit if they just forbid people from driving ICE cars. Sure, people might complain that they can't drive their ICE cars, but they just need to suck it up.
They can get about 7 million bpd from domestic production and Russia. That's plenty for war time economy when they can cut ground transportation by 90% and civilian air transportation by 95%. If we add in pipeline from Myanmar and truck based transportation from central Asia, they will have no issues here.
I have also looked at LNG supplies. With power of Siberia 1 and 2 coming online, but additional pipelines, they have probably 80 to 90% of their need covered from domestic production, pipelines and Russian LNG carriers.
They have so many clean energy projects coming online in the next few years that electricity generation isn't going to be a problem. They have a lot of underutilized coal plants that can always get more utilization if needed. Russia can export them plenty of coal also.
They would have no way of knowing whether a ship is going to Korea or Japan or asean countries. I guess they could just blockade everything, but that has its own costs.
In a war of hegemony, neither America nor china would care about that. Frankly, I have suggested that china could threaten to destroy refineries in middle east if European countries get too anti china in a conflict.
Which is why it will be china that enforces all the blockade. They have a huge coast guard fleet along with a lot of 056s that could be used for this purpose. Any oil tankers from America to Japan would get intercepted by Chinese coast guards after the first week or so. Any ships from Australia or new Zealand would have to pass through china controlled areas to east Asia. So as long as china can protect it's assets in scs and east china sea, they control the action.
I would be curious what @Patchwork_Chimera thinks about this. If we go by the scenario that china is able to significantly degrade American military bases, 7th fleet and JSDF in the first few days, then would the coast guard be heavily utilized by china to enforce it's version of justice.
Again, I am not suggesting china will be the good guy here. It will likely be as brutal as it can be to gain advantage in the surrounding areas. It will probably pressure Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand to use their military bases to conduct attacks.
Myanmar and Cambodia are likely to be helping china in any conflict by allowing china to use their military bases. This would allow them to deal with the threat of America launching attacks from Diego Garcia and Australia. Again, I am just looking at things from Chinese perspective. If they are able to knock out american and Japan forces in the first week, that would change a lot of nations perspectives quickly. China would be really able to pressure them to pick china for the duration of conflict. I am sure America will try to pressure these countries to go the other direction, but they will fear the weight of Chinese military a lot more. That's kind of the issue facing America helping Taiwan here. If it's bases get significantly degraded in the initial attacks, it's allies in the region will be left alone and neutral countries will likely cut deals with china.
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