Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Abominable said:

I'd give Canada an outside chance of leaving. Mainly because of the Francophone seperatist element. But even they seem to be fully on board when it comes to China.

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Canada has about a snowball's chance in hell of leaving FVEY, unless the United States is severely weakened. And I am talking about "Divided States of America" level of catastrophic failure. And that is assuming Canada did not break apart due to the amount of chaos it caused, nor did Canada ceases to exist before United States. It is often said that Mexico is "so far from God, so close to the United States". Guess what? The same thing could be said about Canada.

Canada of today is not Canada of the past; it has practically no independent foreign policy. And its international clout is a shadow of its former self, as seen by the hilariously pathetic attempt at lobbying for a UNSC seat a few years ago. Hell, even as recent as 2003, Chretien could at least tell Dubya to take a hike when it comes to Iraq. Nowadays? Well, lol.

While the Dominion of Canada's entire raison d'être was "how do we organize ourselves to NOT become the United States of America", I would say it has been failing at that objective since 1867.

Aside: Quebecois seperatism here is a distraction and non sequitur. How much interaction would there be with hypothetical independent Quebec and China when it is on the Atlantic side. And what would China think about people randomly splitting country apart, especially considering MFA's previous statements about various secessionist movements around the world?

So no, even if FVEY magically disappears tomorrow, Canada cannot and will not deviate from United States in a major fashion when it comes to China unless United States implodes.

Abominable said:

I'd give Canada an outside chance of leaving. Mainly because of the Francophone seperatist element. But even they seem to be fully on board when it comes to China.

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As BMUFL explained, Canada is just a simpleton, who will follow the US lead with regards to China.

Canada may not be as hostile, still the politicians in this country have no clue of what they want to do, therefore, they just follow along.

Canada has always wanted to be the good boy scout.

A bit rambling but interesting none the less.

Petrolicious88 said:

Only thing left is recognition. And China spends significant political capital just to prevent this symbolic recognition. In almost all other aspects of importance Taiwan is pretty much independent. Independent army, currency, elect its own leaders, conducts its own domestic and foreign policies, etc.. No wonder they want to maintain the status quo.

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Independence of Taiwan means break away from Republic of China, and have a name change, somthing like Republic of Tawain, and disown all relationship with Greater China, including their founding father Dr. Sun Yat Sun, and their independence on October 10th, 1911.

Petrolicious88 said:

Only thing left is recognition.

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That's the most important part in diplomatic world.

Petrolicious88 said:

And China spends significant political capital just to prevent this symbolic recognition.

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In the diplomatic world, recognition is the bedrock of sovereignty. Why else does Putin do mental gymnastics over recognizing independence of DPR/LPR and holding referendum? Legitimacy matters....even if it's thin veneer of legitimate, so you can't say it's "symbolic" as if it's unimportant.

Petrolicious88 said:

In almost all other aspects of importance Taiwan is pretty much independent. Independent army, currency, elect its own leaders, conducts its own domestic and foreign policies, etc.. No wonder they want to maintain the status quo.

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Hong Kong has it's own flag, own currency, own passport, elects it's own leaders, conducts it's own domestic affairs, maintains consulates (not embassies) overseas. It even participates in major economic forums and Olympics as separate teams. It doesn't mean it's independent. It just doesn't have an army like Taiwan.

The most important part is recognition, without it, you are just another Hong Kong with an army.

Phead128 said:

That's the most important part in diplomatic world.

In the diplomatic world, recognition is the bedrock of sovereignty. Why else does Putin do mental gymnastics over recognizing independence of DPR/LPR and holding referendum? Legitimacy matters....even if it's thin veneer of legitimate, so you can't say it's "symbolic" as if it's unimportant.

Hong Kong has it's own flag, own currency, own passport, elects it's own leaders, conducts it's own domestic affairs, maintains consulates (not embassies) overseas. It even participates in major economic forums and Olympics as separate teams. It doesn't mean it's independent. It just doesn't have an army like Taiwan.

The most important part is recognition, without it, you are just another Hong Kong with an army.

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Wrong, Hong Kong holds far more legitimacy than Taiwan Province in the international community. Hong Kong is allowed to compete in the Olympics and participate in economic forums under its full name, a privilege Taiwan Province does not have (they have to use 'Chinese Taipei' instead lolol).

Phead128 said:

Hong Kong has it's own flag, own currency, own passport, elects it's own leaders, conducts it's own domestic affairs, maintains consulates (not embassies) overseas. It even participates in major economic forums and Olympics as separate teams. It doesn't mean it's independent. It just doesn't have an army like Taiwan.

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Hong Kong enjoys those privileges because mainland allows it. It benefits China to allow Hong Kong a certain degree of freedom.

Phead128 said:

The most important part is recognition, without it, you are just another Hong Kong with an army.

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If the most important part is recognition, then there is no need for any Taiwan crisis. Mission is already accomplished. Instead recognition is the only thing left.

Petrolicious88 said:

Hong Kong enjoys those privileges because mainland allows it. It benefits China to allow Hong Kong a certain degree of freedom.

If the most important part is recognition, then there is no need for any Taiwan crisis. Mission is already accomplished. Instead recognition is the only thing left.

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A crisis is happening because a major power (USA) is using the civil war/separatism issue in order to launch their own fradulant claims on Chinese territory. They are the only ones to blame for it, no US invaders, no problems on Taiwan Island.

The only thing left is to deter more US proxies/troops from entering, and then destroy them all once US makes an open move on China.

Petrolicious88 said:

Hong Kong enjoys those privileges because mainland allows it. It benefits China to allow Hong Kong a certain degree of freedom.

If the most important part is recognition, then there is no need for any Taiwan crisis. Mission is already accomplished. Instead recognition is the only thing left.

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but it’s it because all these events are a prelude and salami slicing be the US to promote recognition, that’s why there’s the crisis. Recognition is the most important part but if you don’t stop the salami slicing now, it’s harder to push back if that then go for recognition. It Is basic politics.

What do you guys thing will be a point where 'China is ready' for forceful unification? Like what's lacking right now in terms of capability? Purely from military's point of view, ignore the politics 'if Taiwan declares independence, that's like an automatic trigger, regardless of readiness.