Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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stannislas

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tankphobia said:
I think a successful AR is a foregone conclusion probably since the last 5 years, the question remains is that how painful can the US make such a move. Currently the answer to that question is still extreme/crippling, to the point that it will not be attempted unless there's a drastic change in the status quo by Taiwan/US.

A 10% drop in GDP is thrown around here as something acceptable, but in reality will represent a unimaginable amount of human suffering for the second largest economy in the world.
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i seriously doublt US has the ability of hurting Chinese econemy by that much just by sanction, no matter what they would like to try.
the china import/export contribute slightly less than 20% of its gdp, and US + EU + Japan combine is less then 6.5%, so that's almost the max damage they can do, but
1, i doubt EU or Japan will fully participate the sanction, china is not like russian which matters in only resource sectors, as EU and JP's largest trading partner and world largest industry country, it will deeply harm the entire world if the sanctrion applied
2, the GDP we are talking about is counted in USD, which is nothing closer to the true economical power especially after what FED is doing at the moment, when any sanction started, i doubt the the USD will remain very stable, and given chinese economy is much healthier than the US, there are way more cards china could play by then
 
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Abominable

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tankphobia said:
I think a successful AR is a foregone conclusion probably since the last 5 years, the question remains is that how painful can the US make such a move. Currently the answer to that question is still extreme/crippling, to the point that it will not be attempted unless there's a drastic change in the status quo by Taiwan/US.

A 10% drop in GDP is thrown around here as something acceptable, but in reality will represent a unimaginable amount of human suffering for the second largest economy in the world.
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The part of the GDP that will decline will be the economy that services the west. Since decoupling will happen sooner or later may as well do it on your own terms and regain sovereignty over your territory at the same time.

It won't be pretty for China, but it'll be much worse for America. The value of Chinese imports to America is much greater than the dollar import cost. Go to your local Walmart, home depot and see how many things are made in China. All will become unavailable. The west will have a USSR style contraction.
 
tankphobia

tankphobia

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Abominable said:
The part of the GDP that will decline will be the economy that services the west. Since decoupling will happen sooner or later may as well do it on your own terms and regain sovereignty over your territory at the same time.

It won't be pretty for China, but it'll be much worse for America. The value of Chinese imports to America is much greater than the dollar import cost. Go to your local Walmart, home depot and see how many things are made in China. All will become unavailable. The west will have a USSR style contraction.
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Well yeah, but I'm not focusing on the suffering on the rest of the world, only on China. Even just damages to the service industry will have far reaching consequences, not to mention massive disruptions to industrial output due to raw resources supply disruption. If you think a 20% youth unemployment rate is high now, imagine one caused by pausing of many western orientated Hightech factories churning out iPhones, EVs, computers etc...
 
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ansy1968

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Abominable said:
The part of the GDP that will decline will be the economy that services the west. Since decoupling will happen sooner or later may as well do it on your own terms and regain sovereignty over your territory at the same time.

It won't be pretty for China, but it'll be much worse for America. The value of Chinese imports to America is much greater than the dollar import cost. Go to your local Walmart, home depot and see how many things are made in China. All will become unavailable. The west will have a USSR style contraction.
Click to expand...
Let them try, this Ukraine War the Russian only declare Gas for Ruble and the EU is on the brink of collapse...lol now war with China will surely hit the US and the Americans are wise enough not to push the button, Both China and the US are looking forward to 2025 when both of their semiconductor vulnerability is addressed before tackling the Taiwan issue. By that time China have already decoupled and are strong enough to take the American bluff, while the American are willing to sacrificed Taiwan to hurt China. BUT will there be a US by that time? ;)
 
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Abominable

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tankphobia said:
Well yeah, but I'm not focusing on the suffering on the rest of the world, only on China. Even just damages to the service industry will have far reaching consequences, not to mention massive disruptions to industrial output due to raw resources supply disruption. If you think a 20% youth unemployment rate is high now, imagine one caused by pausing of many western orientated Hightech factories churning out iPhones, EVs, computers etc...
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Industrial output will be fine, consumer products will still need to be manufactured. Raw resources will become cheaper once the west completes deindustrialisation. We're talking about a slight upwards tick in unemployment more than offset by the cheaper cost of living.

Suffering is a relative term. It'll be exactly what happened in Russia but it'll affect everything and not just the energy, food and raw material.

Anyway as many have said decoupling is bound to happen. May as well deal with the Taiwan problem than whatever excuse America uses (Uyghurs, 5G, Huawei, etc.)
 
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ansy1968

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Abominable said:
Industrial output will be fine, consumer products will still need to be manufactured. Raw resources will become cheaper once the west completes deindustrialisation. We're talking about a slight upwards tick in unemployment more than offset by the cheaper cost of living.

Suffering is a relative term. It'll be exactly what happened in Russia but it'll affect everything and not just the energy, food and raw material.

Anyway as many have said decoupling is bound to happen. May as well deal with the Taiwan problem than whatever excuse America uses (Uyghurs, 5G, Huawei, etc.)
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Bro to add from my previous post, by 2025 the US will not be the same as before as the Chinese may reach near parity, such IF they want to consolidate they need to trade and to whom? they had destroy EU a major market for their product while SK , Japan and even the pesky Australian may turn east. So what will happen to those expensive onshoring of manufacturing capabilities with NO market to sell? and now they want a war with China...lol Bro all those bravados will come home to roost and realities are hard to fathom...lol

As both country prepares to any eventualities, the Chinese had more to gain as the US is a stage were a band aid solution will not help its current situation, they need a massive overhaul of their system socially and political, the rot is widespread, only way to cleanse it is to start anew by a revolution either thru peaceful or violent means.
 
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jvodan

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Many countries that take the US side would economically fall off the cliff. Australia would pretty quickly start to resemble Mad Max 1 (the original one, originally released as the Road warrior in the US)

Even in countries whose economies dont heavily rely on digging stuff up and shipping it to China are going to heavily suffer econmically.
Americans largest employer Walmart has a business model like so many others and that is selling stuff partly or wholly made in China. Heck even the F35 replies on bits from China. (rare earth based magnetics)

Countries with adults in the charge at the time the US and China enter in a conflict will quickly run for the side lines. The rest will descend into chaos. Modern societies are not equipped to deal with a great depression style slump in their economic activity. There is not same social cohesion as in the late twenties, we are a lot further down the path of societal de evolution and several generations further away from the farm. A lot of Internet generations most likely lack the sort of resilience required to survive subsistence living.
 
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Nutrient

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coolgod said:
So you are telling me after China reunifies with Taiwan, there is still a good legal basis for China to claim (Outer) Mongolia and the 11 dash line?
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Not really. Taiwan's constitution says that the island is part of China. So the mainland has an excellent reason for reclaiming Taiwan.

I don't know about Mongolia, but I doubt that its constitution (or other founding document, if it doesn't have a constitution) says that Mongolia is part of China.

And I doubt the PRC cares. Mongolia is mostly desert and cold steppe, and its population is less than Lanzhou's.
 
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ansy1968

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jvodan said:
Many countries that take the US side would economically fall off the cliff. Australia would pretty quickly start to resemble Mad Max 1 (the original one, originally released as the Road warrior in the US)

Even in countries whose economies dont heavily rely on digging stuff up and shipping it to China are going to heavily suffer econmically.
Americans largest employer Walmart has a business model like so many others and that is selling stuff partly or wholly made in China. Heck even the F35 replies on bits from China. (rare earth based magnetics)

Countries with adults in the charge at the time the US and China enter in a conflict will quickly run for the side lines. The rest will descend into chaos. Modern societies are not equipped to deal with a great depression style slump in their economic activity. There is not same social cohesion as in the late twenties, we are a lot further down the path of societal de evolution and several generations further away from the farm. A lot of Internet generations most likely lack the sort of resilience required to survive subsistence living.
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You're So right bro, people don't understand that most of Global South are deleveraging against the US not China, even her most ardent vassal aside from the 5 eyes are doing so. It is a Pacific century and we Asian fully embrace it and why let an interlopers spoiled our ascendance.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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jvodan said:
Many countries that take the US side would economically fall off the cliff. Australia would pretty quickly start to resemble Mad Max 1 (the original one, originally released as the Road warrior in the US)

Even in countries whose economies dont heavily rely on digging stuff up and shipping it to China are going to heavily suffer econmically.
Americans largest employer Walmart has a business model like so many others and that is selling stuff partly or wholly made in China. Heck even the F35 replies on bits from China. (rare earth based magnetics)

Countries with adults in the charge at the time the US and China enter in a conflict will quickly run for the side lines. The rest will descend into chaos. Modern societies are not equipped to deal with a great depression style slump in their economic activity. There is not same social cohesion as in the late twenties, we are a lot further down the path of societal de evolution and several generations further away from the farm. A lot of Internet generations most likely lack the sort of resilience required to survive subsistence living.
Click to expand...
I suspect three of the five eyes will eventually jump ship, in the order: New Zealand -> Australia -> UK.

The New Zealand thing is already fairly well known, Ardern has been keeping a low profile and doing the fence sitting thing, she didn't even make much noise in regards to pacific island issues like Solomon Islands. The new Labor government in Australia is showing signs they may consider to take a similar posture and for UK, under Liz's leadership it may not be United soon. The constitute parts wouldn't have much of a choice.

It's really just the US and Canada which is too geographically close to US that will go down with the ship.
 
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