Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Bellum_Romanum said:

I am all for status quo and for China to simply keep buying for time to fully strengthen herself and prepare for all and any eventualities. Taiwan ain't going nowhere and the conditions on the ground can always change and who knows in a decade or two how and what the political-social and economic conditions of Taiwan is going to be like along with China's preponderance military advances and advantages at that stage of time that it would be simply too overwhelming for Taiwan and the U.S. to resist or end the world in nuclear exchanges.

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Exactly! China waited almost 430 years to restore Han-rule over Beijing-Tianjin region (the most strategically important region in China; see ) after losing control to foreigners. China still got Beijing-Tianjin region back from foreigners after 430 years. I'm sure even if it takes 200 years to reunify with Taiwan, it's barely a dent in history. Time is on China's side, which is why provoking AR as soon as possible plays directly into the waning hegemon's hand. If China does nothing, it will grow into the leading superpower, and US will accept AR with Taiwan as a fait accompli. Sure they will have sanctions, but by then, China will be resilient to most of it.

Bellum_Romanum said:

I'll take this piece by Michael O'Hanlon as a wake up call to his political clients in America that have become too stupid, arrogant, and hubristic of American military power that hasn't seen total military victory since the Pacific War of WWII ended with the nuking of Japan 2x culminating with the threat of invasion from then Soviet Union.

I am all for statusquo and for China to simply keep buying for time to fully strengthen herself and prepare for all and any eventualities. Taiwan ain't going nowhere and the conditions on the ground can always change and who knows in a decade or two how and what the political-social and economic conditions of Taiwan is going to be like along with China's preponderance military advances and advantages at that stage of time that it would be simply too overwhelming for Taiwan and the U.S. to resist or end the world in nuclear exchanges.

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From the article:

"But second, we also need to stop demonizing China, even as we do push back against its repressions of internal minorities or dissidents and its assertive behavior abroad. Among other things, that means avoiding accusations that China is (a loaded term if ever there was one) and recognizing the great accomplishments it has made in recent decades in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, in China and beyond."

The US administration is too entangled with the MIC and the politically correct media. The course is set; there is no ability from the US to self correct course.

Phead128 said:

Exactly! China waited almost 430 years to restore Han-rule over Beijing-Tianjin region (the most strategically important region in China; see

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) after losing control to foreigners. China still got Beijing-Tianjin region back from foreigners after 430 years. I'm sure even if it takes 200 years to reunify with Taiwan, it's barely a dent in history. Time is on China's side, which is why provoking AR as soon as possible plays directly into the waning hegemon's hand. If China does nothing, it will grow into the leading superpower, and US will accept AR with Taiwan as a fait accompli. Sure they will have sanctions, but by then, China will be resilient to most of it.

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If we go by historical parallels, there is a pattern to emergence from weak era under foreign control (Northern Wei, Yuan, Qing) to long lived powerful and dominant empire (Tang, Ming, PRC). PRC is the rightful inheritor to the Han, Tang and Ming throne. If the idiots think they can outlast us, they'll be waiting for literal centuries.

That's why they're trying to push their luck now. In European history there were many military coups like Oliver Cromwell, Robespierre, Napoleon, etc. There is no European country from 1800 that remains in its original form today, even British Empire fell. They know they can't outlast China.

ROC MOD confirms that TB-001 flew past the median line; 45 planes detected.

Quite the interesting historical comparison made by a Japanese think tank researcher about China's missile exercises over Taiwan. Japan is using any opportunity as an excuse remilitarize.

Speaking at a

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, Miyake said China’s missile launches that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone should be viewed as “another black ship” for Tokyo. He was referring to the unexpected arrival of an American flotilla commanded by Matthew C. Perry in 1853 that within a year opened Japan to a trade agreement with the United States. China launched the missiles last month to show its anger over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

If we go by historical parallels, there is a pattern to emergence from weak era under foreign control (Northern Wei, Yuan, Qing) to long lived powerful and dominant empire (Tang, Ming, PRC). PRC is the rightful inheritor to the Han, Tang and Ming throne. If the idiots think they can outlast us, they'll be waiting for literal centuries.

That's why they're trying to push their luck now. In European history there were many military coups like Oliver Cromwell, Robespierre, Napoleon, etc. There is no European country from 1800 that remains in its original form today, even British Empire fell. They know they can't outlast China.

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Off topic, but I couldn’t resist on this one. I love how people here are following the US’s and Japan’s perspective of the Qing, Yuan, Liao and other non Han led states being foreign ruled when that is a load of bulls**t. They may be ruled by different ethnic groups, but they are all Chinese. I’d argue that they have a better understanding of Chinese culture and civilization than even sometimes the Han ethnic group does. This Han supremacy mentality needs to go to h*ll and stay dead.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Off topic, but I couldn’t resist on this one. I love how people here are following the US’s and Japan’s perspective of the Qing, Yuan, Liao and other non Han led states being foreign ruled when that is a load of bulls**t. They may be ruled by different ethnic groups, but they are all Chinese. I’d argue that they have a better understanding of Chinese culture and civilization than even sometimes the Han ethnic group does. This Han supremacy mentality needs to go to h*ll and stay dead.

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Tang dynasty, strictly speaking if we go by the foreigner or han supremacy argument, is also not truly han. Wasn't li shi min and his family of xianbei heritage?

getready said:

Tang dynasty, strictly speaking if we go by the foreigner or han supremacy argument, is also not truly han. Wasn't li shi min and his family of xianbei heritage?

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If we go by the foreigner perspective, the Han ethnic group became a bunch of mulattos back in the 5 Barbarians and 16 Kingdoms era. Also for Tang Taizong, his grandma was Xianbei since she was the daughter of a Xianbei general. This obsession with ethnicity purity is fundamentally stupid and an invention by the West to dismantle China’s 5000 year old continuity and civilization. Ironically Han supremacists are toeing the West’s line.

There has never been any real pure blooded Han people, not even during Han Dynasty. The Chinese heritage is based on culture, not race. Even Caucasians and Black people can become real Chinese by adopting the language and way of life, and they'll be more Chinese than some second generation bananas who reject their identity wholesale.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Off topic, but I couldn’t resist on this one. I love how people here are following the US’s and Japan’s perspective of the Qing, Yuan, Liao and other non Han led states being foreign ruled when that is a load of bulls**t. They may be ruled by different ethnic groups, but they are all Chinese. I’d argue that they have a better understanding of Chinese culture and civilization than even sometimes the Han ethnic group does. This Han supremacy mentality needs to go to h*ll and stay dead.

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Well Qing and Jin (the one led by Wanyan clan) were both Jurchen, yet while nobody ever questions if Jin is Chinese, there are questions about Qing. This is despite Jin being contemporary with Song, which was more prominent. Culturally, the Wanyan family was heavily pushing sinicization and Jin was fully sinicized, while Qing imposed Manchu customs on Han instead. Northern Wei is admittedly also highly sinicized.

About Yuan, the reason they are considered less Chinese/more foreign than Jin, Northern Wei, etc. is because the Mongols set up a caste system and called the people of the conquered Jin dynasty "Han" subjects（汉人) (as opposed to Mongols being 国人, citizens). They had no interest in joining mainstream Chinese society.

四等人制，是近代部分学者对元朝时期不同民族享有相对礼遇或相对受限的不同权利形成阶级制度的概括，其分类主要呈现在元朝的科举以及部分法治制度的实行上，认为其待遇大致根据民族被征服的先后，在优先顺位的排序先后为蒙古族、色目人、汉人、南人四等；蒙古族在当时称为“国人”，色目人泛指以西域人为主、非其余三类的各族人，汉人是指曾在金朝管治下的汉族、女真族、契丹族等各族臣民，而南人则多指曾在南宋管治下的汉族及其他南方少数民族等各族臣民。

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So it isn't about what ethnicity they are, it's whether they were already a part of, or were joining, mainstream Chinese society/culture. Jin, Liao and Northern Wei indisputably joined Chinese society. Yuan did not, and Qing was questionable.